'For Republicans, Crime Pays, No Matter What Else Happens' diff viewer (0/1)

This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on November 09, 2022 10:59 (UTC). It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/opinion/democrats-republicans-crime.html

The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Previous version 1 2 Next version

Previous version 1 2 Next version

Version 0	Version 1
For Republicans, Crime Pays, No Matter What Else Happens	For Republicans, Crime Pays, No Matter What Else Happens
2022-11-09 11:00:25 UTC	2022-11-09 16:21:29 UTC (about 5 hours later)
In the months leading up to Election Day, the Republican Party conducted an advertising campaign focused on crime and social disorder, on looting and shoplifting in big cities across the country. They tried to associate Democrats with “defund the police” messages that are in fact voiced by a very small minority of party members, but that appear to have undercut mainstream Democrats running in key races, including many who nonetheless hung on to their seats. The issue isn’t going away anytime soon and may well play a major role in 2024.	In the months leading up to Election Day, the Republican Party conducted an advertising campaign focused on crime and social disorder, on looting and shoplifting in big cities across the country. They tried to associate Democrats with “defund the police” messages that are in fact voiced by a very small minority of party members, but that appear to have undercut mainstream Democrats running in key races, including many who nonetheless hung on to their seats. The issue isn’t going away anytime soon and may well play a major role in 2024.
Describing the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, published on Nov. 6, Gary Langer, the president of Langer Research Associates, wrote on the network’s website about the key role of crime in the election: “On individual issues, divisions are sharp. Registered voters trust the Republican Party over the Democratic Party by 14 points to handle the economy, by 12 points to handle inflation and — by the widest G.O.P. margin — 20 points to handle crime.”	Describing the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, published on Nov. 6, Gary Langer, the president of Langer Research Associates, wrote on the network’s website about the key role of crime in the election: “On individual issues, divisions are sharp. Registered voters trust the Republican Party over the Democratic Party by 14 points to handle the economy, by 12 points to handle inflation and — by the widest G.O.P. margin — 20 points to handle crime.”
In response to my inquiry, Langer wrote in an email that the Republican advantage on crime was the second highest in recent memory, exceeded only once at the start of the 1990s.	In response to my inquiry, Langer wrote in an email that the Republican advantage on crime was the second highest in recent memory, exceeded only once at the start of the 1990s.
Similarly, the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies provided me with data from recent Wall Street Journal and NBC surveys that showed immigration and crime driving Republican voters. Voters who placed immigration and the situation at the border among their top two issues preferred Republican control of Congress by 92 percent to 6 percent, and those who placed crime in the top two issues preferred Republicans by 71 percent to 21 percent — by larger margins than those who gave high priority to jobs and the economy (64 percent to 30 percent) and to the cost of living (50 percent to 40 percent).	Similarly, the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies provided me with data from recent Wall Street Journal and NBC surveys that showed immigration and crime driving Republican voters. Voters who placed immigration and the situation at the border among their top two issues preferred Republican control of Congress by 92 percent to 6 percent, and those who placed crime in the top two issues preferred Republicans by 71 percent to 21 percent — by larger margins than those who gave high priority to jobs and the economy (64 percent to 30 percent) and to the cost of living (50 percent to 40 percent).
Bill McInturff, a founding partner of Public Opinion Strategies, wrote by email that “Democrats’ problems on issues like crime and the border are not temporary. These are now built into the voters’ calculus of the two parties and its candidates, to the advantage of Republican candidates.”	Bill McInturff, a founding partner of Public Opinion Strategies, wrote by email that “Democrats’ problems on issues like crime and the border are not temporary. These are now built into the voters’ calculus of the two parties and its candidates, to the advantage of Republican candidates.”
Stanley B. Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, reinforced McInturff’s point. “The 2022 midterms will be remembered as a toxic campaign but an effective one in labeling Democrats as ‘pro-crime,’” Greenberg wrote in “How Democrats Mishandled Crime,” a Nov. 3 American Prospect article. “When voters in our survey were asked what they feared the most if Democrats win full control of the government, 56 percent chose ‘crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack.’”	Stanley B. Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, reinforced McInturff’s point. “The 2022 midterms will be remembered as a toxic campaign but an effective one in labeling Democrats as ‘pro-crime,’” Greenberg wrote in “How Democrats Mishandled Crime,” a Nov. 3 American Prospect article. “When voters in our survey were asked what they feared the most if Democrats win full control of the government, 56 percent chose ‘crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack.’”
Right behind crime and homelessness, according to Greenberg, were fears of “the ~~Southern~~ border being open to immigrants,” at 43 percent, and of “Black crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack,” at 38 percent.	Right behind crime and homelessness, according to Greenberg, were fears of “the southern border being open to immigrants,” at 43 percent, and of “Black crime and homelessness out of control in cities and police coming under attack,” at 38 percent.
In surveys conducted this year, Greenberg found that “the Democrats had so little credibility on crime that any message I tested this year against the Republicans ended up losing us votes, even messages that voters previously liked.”	In surveys conducted this year, Greenberg found that “the Democrats had so little credibility on crime that any message I tested this year against the Republicans ended up losing us votes, even messages that voters previously liked.”
In July, Greenberg tested a message in which the Democratic candidate declared “‘gun violence’ a ‘public health crisis’” and called for “allocating billions to state and local law enforcement, prosecuting more criminals, banning assault weapons and not defunding the police. It lost to the Republican crime message by 10 points and cost us two points in the Democratic margin.”	In July, Greenberg tested a message in which the Democratic candidate declared “‘gun violence’ a ‘public health crisis’” and called for “allocating billions to state and local law enforcement, prosecuting more criminals, banning assault weapons and not defunding the police. It lost to the Republican crime message by 10 points and cost us two points in the Democratic margin.”
Over the past three decades, voters have shifted back and forth on the question of which party is best equipped to deal with crime. The Washington Post/ABC News survey asked this question 20 times between January 1990 and Oct. 2 of this year. In the early 1990s, the Republican Party had a strong, double-digit advantage. Bill Clinton, a Democrat, took a strong anti-crime stance, and the issue favored Democrats by a slight, single-digit margin through much of the 1990s.	Over the past three decades, voters have shifted back and forth on the question of which party is best equipped to deal with crime. The Washington Post/ABC News survey asked this question 20 times between January 1990 and Oct. 2 of this year. In the early 1990s, the Republican Party had a strong, double-digit advantage. Bill Clinton, a Democrat, took a strong anti-crime stance, and the issue favored Democrats by a slight, single-digit margin through much of the 1990s.
Starting in April this year, however, Republicans took a decisive lead.	Starting in April this year, however, Republicans took a decisive lead.
Robert Sampson, a sociologist at Harvard, noted that the Democratic Party “certainly gets targeted, and long has, for allegedly being soft — the old bleeding-heart liberal critique,” but, he added, “in the past few years, a somewhat different issue has emerged.” Some Democrats and liberals try to deflect the issue, he wrote by email, “by comparing it to a more dangerous past, such as ‘crime is still lower than it was in the 1980s or 1990s.’”	Robert Sampson, a sociologist at Harvard, noted that the Democratic Party “certainly gets targeted, and long has, for allegedly being soft — the old bleeding-heart liberal critique,” but, he added, “in the past few years, a somewhat different issue has emerged.” Some Democrats and liberals try to deflect the issue, he wrote by email, “by comparing it to a more dangerous past, such as ‘crime is still lower than it was in the 1980s or 1990s.’”
This, Sampson contended, “is a losing strategy for at least three reasons. One, it is insensitive to victims of crime and people who live in communities that bear the brunt of crime, especially violent crimes.” Second, “the ‘crime is lower now’ claim is only partly true. Gun homicide, for example, is now higher in several major cities than it was during the 1980s and ’90s.” And third, since “reducing violence not only promotes well-being in general, but it also reduces racial inequality, ducking the crime problem is a puzzling irony. A truly progressive platform needs to own the crime problem, addressing head-on the legitimate concerns of citizens.”	This, Sampson contended, “is a losing strategy for at least three reasons. One, it is insensitive to victims of crime and people who live in communities that bear the brunt of crime, especially violent crimes.” Second, “the ‘crime is lower now’ claim is only partly true. Gun homicide, for example, is now higher in several major cities than it was during the 1980s and ’90s.” And third, since “reducing violence not only promotes well-being in general, but it also reduces racial inequality, ducking the crime problem is a puzzling irony. A truly progressive platform needs to own the crime problem, addressing head-on the legitimate concerns of citizens.”
The data on recent crime trends, as Sampson noted, is contradictory. The homicide rate has risen sharply, but the rate of violent crimes excluding murder (robbery, rape, sexual assault, aggravated assault and simple assault) has fallen over the past three years.	The data on recent crime trends, as Sampson noted, is contradictory. The homicide rate has risen sharply, but the rate of violent crimes excluding murder (robbery, rape, sexual assault, aggravated assault and simple assault) has fallen over the past three years.
From 2019 to 2021, homicides involving firearms increased substantially, both in numbers and in the rate per 100,000 population, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2019 there were 14,395 such murders, or 4.6 for every 100,000 people; by 2021, the number of such deaths rose to 20,966, or 6.63 for every 100,000 people.	From 2019 to 2021, homicides involving firearms increased substantially, both in numbers and in the rate per 100,000 population, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In 2019 there were 14,395 such murders, or 4.6 for every 100,000 people; by 2021, the number of such deaths rose to 20,966, or 6.63 for every 100,000 people.
In the case of violent crimes, the Bureau of Justice Statistics reported in its victimization surveys that the rate fell from 21 per 1,000 people over the age of 12 in 2019 to 16.5 in 2021.	In the case of violent crimes, the Bureau of Justice Statistics reported in its victimization surveys that the rate fell from 21 per 1,000 people over the age of 12 in 2019 to 16.5 in 2021.
On Oct. 31, the Pew Research Center released a study, “Violent Crime Is a Key Midterm Voting Issue, but What Does the Data Say?” by John Gramlich. “Around six in 10 registered voters (61 percent) say violent crime is very important when making their decision about who to vote for in this year’s congressional elections,” he wrote.	On Oct. 31, the Pew Research Center released a study, “Violent Crime Is a Key Midterm Voting Issue, but What Does the Data Say?” by John Gramlich. “Around six in 10 registered voters (61 percent) say violent crime is very important when making their decision about who to vote for in this year’s congressional elections,” he wrote.
Among racial and ethnic groups, 81 percent of Black respondents said violent crime was very important in determining their 2022 vote, compared with 56 percent of white respondents and 65 percent of Hispanics. Among Democrats, “82 percent of Black Democratic voters say violent crime is very important to their vote this year, only a third of white Democratic voters say the same.”	Among racial and ethnic groups, 81 percent of Black respondents said violent crime was very important in determining their 2022 vote, compared with 56 percent of white respondents and 65 percent of Hispanics. Among Democrats, “82 percent of Black Democratic voters say violent crime is very important to their vote this year, only a third of white Democratic voters say the same.”
Gramlich confirmed the data cited above, pointing out that	Gramlich confirmed the data cited above, pointing out that
There are many reasons voters might be concerned about violent crime, even if official statistics do not show an increase in the nation’s total violent crime rate, according to Pew:	There are many reasons voters might be concerned about violent crime, even if official statistics do not show an increase in the nation’s total violent crime rate, according to Pew:
John Cluverius, a political scientist at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell, pointed out that “crime statistics are not as important to people as their perception of crime.”	John Cluverius, a political scientist at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell, pointed out that “crime statistics are not as important to people as their perception of crime.”
“You can’t forget about race in this equation,” Cluverius wrote by ~~email:~~ “As white voters with higher levels of racial resentment gravitated toward the Republican Party after Obama’s election, you have a larger share of the Republican electorate willing to believe stereotypes about Black and Hispanic people as criminals.”	“You can’t forget about race in this equation,” Cluverius wrote by email. “As white voters with higher levels of racial resentment gravitated toward the Republican Party after Obama’s election, you have a larger share of the Republican electorate willing to believe stereotypes about Black and Hispanic people as criminals.”
In an Oct. 19 essay, “The Slogan Hurting Democrats’ Election Chances,” Paul Begala, ~~the~~ Democratic strategist, wrote, “In my many years in politics, I have never seen a more destructive slogan than ‘defund the police.’”	In an Oct. 19 essay, “The Slogan Hurting Democrats’ Election Chances,” Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist, wrote, “In my many years in politics, I have never seen a more destructive slogan than ‘defund the police.’”
“The overwhelming majority of Americans — including most Black Americans and most Democrats — oppose defunding police,” Begala wrote. “Still, the political damage from that slogan has been real.”	“The overwhelming majority of Americans — including most Black Americans and most Democrats — oppose defunding police,” Begala wrote. “Still, the political damage from that slogan has been real.”
What, then, to do? In an email, Begala contended that “Democrats simply must talk about crime. Decrying the racism of right-wing demagoguery is necessary but not sufficient.”	What, then, to do? In an email, Begala contended that “Democrats simply must talk about crime. Decrying the racism of right-wing demagoguery is necessary but not sufficient.”
Begala argues that Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, for which Begala was an adviser, is a case study in an effective Democratic approach to crime:	Begala argues that Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, for which Begala was an adviser, is a case study in an effective Democratic approach to crime:
Washington Post poll data supports Begala’s claim. On March 4, 1991, when Clinton was just beginning to campaign, the Republican Party had an 18-point advantage (46 percent to 28 percent) on the question of which party could better deal with crime; by Feb. 2, 1992, with the campaign fully underway, the Democratic Party had gained the lead on the issue (39 percent to 35 percent) and, as I mentioned earlier, held it through much of the decade.	Washington Post poll data supports Begala’s claim. On March 4, 1991, when Clinton was just beginning to campaign, the Republican Party had an 18-point advantage (46 percent to 28 percent) on the question of which party could better deal with crime; by Feb. 2, 1992, with the campaign fully underway, the Democratic Party had gained the lead on the issue (39 percent to 35 percent) and, as I mentioned earlier, held it through much of the decade.
Among liberals and Democrats there is, however, no consensus on how to address issues of crime.	Among liberals and Democrats there is, however, no consensus on how to address issues of crime.
A Democratic pollster who insisted on remaining anonymous to avoid alienating clients, emailed me his analysis of why crime is particularly problematic for his party:	A Democratic pollster who insisted on remaining anonymous to avoid alienating clients, emailed me his analysis of why crime is particularly problematic for his party:
The question then becomes, he wrote:	The question then becomes, he wrote:
The issue of crime poses a dilemma for Democrats, he argued:	The issue of crime poses a dilemma for Democrats, he argued:
The Republican focus on crime is reflected in spending data. On Nov. 3, in “The Reason Republican Attacks on Crime Are So Potent,” Li Zhou, a reporter at Vox, wrote:	The Republican focus on crime is reflected in spending data. On Nov. 3, in “The Reason Republican Attacks on Crime Are So Potent,” Li Zhou, a reporter at Vox, wrote:
Ron Johnson, the Republican senator from Wisconsin, she added, has been among the most aggressive in his use of crime ads to attack his opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. “Republicans spent nearly $10 million on crime-related ads in Wisconsin compared to $7 million on economic issues, according to AdImpact. In Wisconsin, 70 percent of digital ads in the Senate race have focused on crime, while just 15 percent have focused on inflation,” according to Zhou, who pointed out that	Ron Johnson, the Republican senator from Wisconsin, she added, has been among the most aggressive in his use of crime ads to attack his opponent, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. “Republicans spent nearly $10 million on crime-related ads in Wisconsin compared to $7 million on economic issues, according to AdImpact. In Wisconsin, 70 percent of digital ads in the Senate race have focused on crime, while just 15 percent have focused on inflation,” according to Zhou, who pointed out that
The attack has proved successful.	The attack has proved successful.
On Aug. 18, Barnes had a 5.5 percentage point lead over Johnson, 50.5 percent to 45.0 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. By Nov. 7, Johnson led 49.9 percent to 46.5 percent.	On Aug. 18, Barnes had a 5.5 percentage point lead over Johnson, 50.5 percent to 45.0 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. By Nov. 7, Johnson led 49.9 percent to 46.5 percent.
Along similar lines, the Politico/Morning Consult nationwide tracking poll on Nov. 1 found that crime was “second only to the economy on voters’ minds: Roughly three in five voters (61 percent) rate crime as ‘very important’ to their midterm vote, higher than the 51 percent who said the same of abortion and the 50 percent who are focused on immigration.”	Along similar lines, the Politico/Morning Consult nationwide tracking poll on Nov. 1 found that crime was “second only to the economy on voters’ minds: Roughly three in five voters (61 percent) rate crime as ‘very important’ to their midterm vote, higher than the 51 percent who said the same of abortion and the 50 percent who are focused on immigration.”
The struggles of the contemporary Democratic Party over crime — and other issues that appear to be hurting them at the polls like educational battles over critical race theory and transgender rights — are part of an intraparty ideological struggle that goes back at least to the 1980s, when the party lost three presidential elections in a row.	The struggles of the contemporary Democratic Party over crime — and other issues that appear to be hurting them at the polls like educational battles over critical race theory and transgender rights — are part of an intraparty ideological struggle that goes back at least to the 1980s, when the party lost three presidential elections in a row.
In the aftermath of the 1988 defeat of Michael Dukakis by George H.W. Bush, two Democratic analysts, William Galston and Elaine Kamarck, both now senior fellows at Brookings, wrote the then-groundbreaking essay “The Politics of Evasion: Democrats and the Presidency,” published under the aegis of the Progressive Policy Institute.	In the aftermath of the 1988 defeat of Michael Dukakis by George H.W. Bush, two Democratic analysts, William Galston and Elaine Kamarck, both now senior fellows at Brookings, wrote the then-groundbreaking essay “The Politics of Evasion: Democrats and the Presidency,” published under the aegis of the Progressive Policy Institute.