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US midterms polls: Who will win control of Congress? US midterms polls: Who will win control of Congress?
(about 4 hours later)
The final polls of the midterm elections are out and can help give us an answer to the question on everyone's mind - who will win? Democrats or Republicans?The final polls of the midterm elections are out and can help give us an answer to the question on everyone's mind - who will win? Democrats or Republicans?
Indications are that the Republican Party is on the verge of taking back control of the US House of Representatives for the first time in four years.Indications are that the Republican Party is on the verge of taking back control of the US House of Representatives for the first time in four years.
The upper chamber of Congress, the Senate, remains too close to call. There are more paths to Republican victory in the Senate than there are for Democrats, who have held the barest of majorities there for the past two years. The upper chamber of Congress, the Senate, remains too close to call. There are more paths to a Republican victory in the Senate than for Democrats, who have held the barest of majorities there for the past two years.
Understanding how it could unfold in both chambers is just a question of maths.Understanding how it could unfold in both chambers is just a question of maths.
In the House, Republicans need to flip only five seats out of the 435 in the chamber to have a majority.In the House, Republicans need to flip only five seats out of the 435 in the chamber to have a majority.
According to the Cook Political Report, which analyses the competitiveness of races based on polling data and underlying election dynamics, Republicans are favoured in 212 seats. They would have to win just six of the 35 races listed as toss-ups to control a majority. According to the Cook Political Report, which analyses the competitiveness of races based on polling data and underlying election dynamics, Republicans are favoured in 212 seats. They would have to win just six of the 35 races listed as toss-ups to control a majority. Ten of those seats are already held by Republicans.
Ten of those seats are already held by Republicans, so victory in this scenario wouldn't require ousting a single Democratic incumbent. It would take a significant polling error, in the aggregate, for Democrats to maintain the House speaker's gavel. Most professional forecasts at the moment predict Republicans will win between 20 and 30 seats, which would give them a comfortable operating majority.
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The 100-seat Senate is somewhat simpler to understand. Only 35 seats are up for election this year, and there are only a handful of closely contested races.The 100-seat Senate is somewhat simpler to understand. Only 35 seats are up for election this year, and there are only a handful of closely contested races.
Democratic incumbents are defending Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and New Hampshire. Republicans seek to hold open Senate seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania. All of the contests are within or near the margin of error according to most major polls. A net change of one seat toward the Republicans will swing the chamber to them. A net change of one seat toward the Republicans will swing the chamber to them.
Given that Democrats are trying to protect more seats than Republicans, there are simply more ways for Democrats to lose the Senate than to win it. That gives the Republicans the upper hand, albeit by the narrowest of margins. The Senate and the House don't always track the same way, however. In 2018, Democrats flipped the House but lost seats in the US Senate. Given that Democrats are trying to protect more seats than Republicans, there are simply more ways for Democrats to lose the Senate than to win it. That gives the Republicans the upper hand, albeit by the narrowest of margins.
Taken in its totality, however, it appears likely that Republicans will control at least one chamber of Congress once the dust settles on these midterm elections. It appears likely that Republicans will control at least one chamber of Congress once the dust settles on these midterm elections.
After two years of unified Democratic control in Washington, the power dynamic in the nation's capital is poised to shift. That would have some very real implications American politics for the next two years. After two years of unified Democratic control in Washington, the power dynamic in the nation's capital is poised to shift. Here are four very real implications American politics for the next two years.
Mr Biden will be left searching for unilateral means to enact policy, and Republicans in Congress will be operating on the margins.
The end of Joe Biden's legislative agenda
Although it unfolded in fits and starts, after two years in office, Joe Biden and the Democrats were able to enact a fairly substantive legislative agenda. It included massive spending on the environment, healthcare and other social programmes.
That all ends with a Republican victory on Tuesday.
There's the chance of bipartisan co-operation on some issues. For instance, Republicans and Democrats did join together to pass gun control and technology investment this year and infrastructure spending last year. However, the kind of big-ticket liberal priorities on abortion, education and voting rights will be dead in the water.
Republicans have their own legislative agenda, with particular focus on border security, law enforcement spending, budget cuts and fossil fuel extraction. Even if they take both chambers of Congress, Democrats will be able block passage in the Senate using the filibuster rule or in the White House using Mr Biden's veto power.
For the next two years, legislative gridlock will be the name of game.
Mr Biden will be left searching for unilateral means to enact policy, and Republicans in Congress will be operating on the margins. They will be saving any sweeping changes for 2024, when they hope to win back the presidency and expand any congressional gains.
Immigrants seeking asylum in the United States wait to be processed by U.S. Border Patrol agents after crossing into Arizona from Mexico.
Republicans get the power to investigate
For two years, Democrats have been calling the shots - which includes the ability to focus the formidable powers of congressional oversight on subjects of their interest. That's meant an expansive investigation into the 6 January, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, and hearings on subjects like abortion, healthcare and voting rights.
If Republicans take control of congressional committees, the priorities will rapidly shift.
House conservatives have already promised a hearing into Joe Biden's son Hunter's business ties to China. They also want to look into the Biden administration's immigration policies, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the origins of the coronavirus pandemic in China.
The Senate Judiciary Committee handles review of presidential nominations to the federal courts. For the past two years, Democrats have set a modern record for the number of new judges seated to lifetime appointments.
If Republicans also take control of the US Senate, expect the process for confirming Mr Biden's nominees to come to a standstill. And if a Supreme Court vacancy opens up, there's a good chance it could remain unfilled until the next presidential election.
Risk of government shutdowns
With Democratic control of Congress, the US had a two-year reprieve from the kind of legislative games of chicken that have led to government shutdowns and near default on the national debt.
That's about to end.
There is a legal requirement that Congress authorise the issuance of new government debt to cover already approved spending. Some Republicans, including Congressman Kevin McCarthy who is poised to become House speaker if Republicans take the chamber, are already threatening to use that as a way to force Democrats to agree to sweeping budget cuts.
The US has never defaulted on its debt.
However partial government shutdowns due to the inability of Congress to approve annual spending legislation have become a more common occurrence. It happened twice during the Trump administration and once under President Obama.
If Republicans and Democrats can't agree on a basic framework for government spending, another government shutdown by the end of next year seems highly probable.
Biden's perilous path ahead
Republican control of Congress would be a bitter pill for Mr Biden to swallow. He campaigned as someone who could unite Americans after a turbulent four years with Mr Trump as president.
Instead he will face a nation as divided as ever, a hostile Congress intent on scouring his administration and his family, and the possibility that Mr Trump himself will seek to win back the White House.
Most presidents suffer through electoral setbacks halfway through their first term in office. Although some have bounced back to win re-election, such a result will be seen as a sign of Mr Biden's continued political weakness. It could renew calls for him to step aside for another Democrat when the 2024 presidential campaign season begins.
The president and his advisers all insist he will seek re-election. The White House has already announced Mr Biden will give a public speech addressing the election results on Wednesday.
How he handles that speech, and how he deals with the adversity that is coming in the months ahead remains to be seen. It will go a long way toward determining how much support he will have in his own party for another four years in office.
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