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Bank of England Sees Recession Ahead, but Raises Rates Most Since 1989 Bank of England Sees Recession Ahead, but Raises Rates Most Since 1989
(about 1 hour later)
The Bank of England intensified its battle against inflation on Thursday, raising interest rates by the largest amount since 1989, even as it predicted that the British economy would enter a “prolonged” recession.The Bank of England intensified its battle against inflation on Thursday, raising interest rates by the largest amount since 1989, even as it predicted that the British economy would enter a “prolonged” recession.
The central bank lifted its key policy rate by three-quarters of a point, ramping up its effort to tighten financial conditions and taking the rate to 3 percent, the highest since November 2008.The central bank lifted its key policy rate by three-quarters of a point, ramping up its effort to tighten financial conditions and taking the rate to 3 percent, the highest since November 2008.
It was the first meeting since the short and turbulent premiership of Liz Truss, which roiled financial markets and pushed mortgage rates higher. As fears about the cost-of-living crisis grow, Thursday’s rate increase might feel like more bad economic news to households because it keeps mortgage rates high and is devised to put the brakes on an economy that is already slowing down. It was the first meeting since the short and turbulent premiership of Liz Truss, which roiled financial markets and pushed mortgage rates higher. As fears about the cost-of-living crisis grow, Thursday’s rate increase may feel like more bad economic news to households because it keeps mortgage rates high and is devised to put the brakes on an economy that is already slowing down.
“If we don’t take action to bring inflation down it gets worse,” Andrew Bailey, the governor of the bank, said in a news conference on Thursday. “There is no easy outcome to this.” “If we don’t take action to bring inflation down, it gets worse,” Andrew Bailey, the governor of the bank, said in a news conference on Thursday. “There is no easy outcome to this.”
Through all the tumult in Britain the past few months, high inflation and the threat of it lingering for longer than expected has remained a consistent scourge for the central bank. The annual inflation rate topped 10 percent in September, the highest in four decades and five times the central bank’s target. Through all the tumult in Britain the past few months, high inflation and the threat that it will linger longer than expected have remained a consistent scourge for the central bank. The annual inflation rate topped 10 percent in September, the highest in four decades and five times the central bank’s target.
Bank officials have said they are determined to bring inflation down to its 2 percent target and will use higher interest rates to do so. But in a sign that the British economy is already slowing down, they also sent a clear message to financial markets that the bank was unlikely to raise interest rates as high as traders had expected, which was about 5.2 percent when the bank set its forecasts in late October. Bank officials have said they are determined to bring inflation down to their 2 percent target and will use higher interest rates to do so. But in a sign that the British economy is already slowing down, they also sent a clear message to financial markets that the bank is unlikely to raise interest rates as high as traders had expected, which was about 5.2 percent when the bank set its forecasts in late October.
The Bank of England expects inflation to climb to about 11 percent this year, which is less than it had previously forecast because of Ms. Truss’s plan to freeze household energy bills that was announced in September. While the freeze is holding down the headline inflation rate, it could add to price pressures coming from other goods and services, as households have to spend less on their energy bills, the bank said. The Bank of England expects inflation to climb to about 11 percent this year, which is less than it had previously forecast because of Ms. Truss’s plan to freeze household energy bills, announced in September. While the freeze is holding down the headline inflation rate, it could add to price pressures coming from other goods and services, as households have to spend less on their energy bills, the bank said.
Early next year, inflation is expected to be around 10 percent, the bank said, and later drop sharply as the global forces driving up inflation, such as energy costs and supply chain bottlenecks, diminish.Early next year, inflation is expected to be around 10 percent, the bank said, and later drop sharply as the global forces driving up inflation, such as energy costs and supply chain bottlenecks, diminish.
“We cannot pretend to know what will happen to gas prices, that depends on the war in Ukraine,” Mr. Bailey said. “But from where we stand now, we think inflation will begin to fall back from the middle of next year, probably quite sharply. “We cannot pretend to know what will happen to gas prices — that depends on the war in Ukraine,” Mr. Bailey said. “But from where we stand now, we think inflation will begin to fall back from the middle of next year, probably quite sharply.”
After the announcement, government bonds extended their decline and the pound slumped against the dollar, exacerbating moves that began in response to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase late on Wednesday. The yield on 10-year British government bonds rose 12 basis points, to about 3.52 percent. The British pound was down 2 percent in daily trading. After the announcement, government bonds extended their decline and the pound slumped against the dollar, exacerbating moves that began in response to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase on Wednesday. The yield on 10-year British government bonds rose 12 basis points, to about 3.52 percent. The British pound was down 2 percent in daily trading.
The bank’s action was the biggest interest rate increase since late 1989, when it raised rates by more than 1 percentage point, ultimately nearing 15 percent amid rapidly rising prices. The bank’s action was the biggest interest rate increase since late 1989, when it raised rates more than one percentage point, ultimately nearing 15 percent amid rapidly rising prices.
Having barely recovered from the pandemic, Britain’s economy is faltering again as rising energy bills, food costs and mortgage rates squeeze consumer spending, stalling one of the key drivers of economic growth.Having barely recovered from the pandemic, Britain’s economy is faltering again as rising energy bills, food costs and mortgage rates squeeze consumer spending, stalling one of the key drivers of economic growth.
The bank’s latest projections “described a very challenging outlook for the U.K. economy,” policymakers said, according to the minutes of their meeting this week. “It was expected to be in recession for a prolonged period.”The bank’s latest projections “described a very challenging outlook for the U.K. economy,” policymakers said, according to the minutes of their meeting this week. “It was expected to be in recession for a prolonged period.”
The bank forecast that the economy would shrink by 0.75 percent in the second half of 2022, and would keep falling next year and the first half of 2024 because of high energy prices and “materially” tighter financial conditions, including higher home mortgage rates and borrowing costs for companies. This two-year recession is based on the assumption that the central bank raises interest rates in line with market expectations. While the bank has pushed back on those expectations, it said that even if interest rates didn’t rise again, the economy was still set to record a decline for the second half of this year and much of next year. The bank forecast that the economy will shrink 0.75 percent in the second half of 2022 and keep falling next year and the first half of 2024 because of high energy prices and “materially” tighter financial conditions, including higher home mortgage rates and borrowing costs for companies.
“Interest rate hikes, in an effort to lower inflation, are worsening the near-term economic outlook,” Melanie Baker, an economist at Royal London Asset Management said in a statement. She’s forecasting interest rates to peak at 4.5 percent. This two-year recession is based on the assumption that the central bank raises interest rates in line with market expectations. While the bank has pushed back on those expectations, it said that even if interest rates didn’t rise again, the economy was still set to record a decline for the second half of this year and much of next year.
This is a challenge for many central banks, which are also raising interest rates quickly in the face of the highest inflation in decades and potential recessions. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised rates by three-quarters of a percent — the fourth consecutive time it has done so — and signaled that more increases were to come, though the pace of them would slow. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates by three-quarters of a point as it said inflation could increase, but the bank heavily stressed that the economy was weakening. “Interest rate hikes, in an effort to lower inflation, are worsening the near-term economic outlook,” Melanie Baker, an economist at Royal London Asset Management, said in a statement. She’s forecasting interest rates to peak at 4.5 percent.
This is a challenge for many central banks, which are also raising interest rates quickly in the face of the highest inflation in decades and potential recessions. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised rates three-quarters of a percentage point — the fourth consecutive time it has done so — and signaled that more increases were to come, though the pace would slow. Last week, the European Central Bank raised rates three-quarters of a point as it said inflation could increase, but the bank heavily stressed that the economy was weakening.
In Britain, there have been “significant developments” in fiscal policy since the bank’s last policy meeting six weeks ago, Thursday’s statement said. The day after the previous meeting, on Sept. 23., Ms. Truss’s finance minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced a series of unfunded tax cuts that set Britain’s fiscal policy on a collision course with the bank’s monetary policy.In Britain, there have been “significant developments” in fiscal policy since the bank’s last policy meeting six weeks ago, Thursday’s statement said. The day after the previous meeting, on Sept. 23., Ms. Truss’s finance minister, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced a series of unfunded tax cuts that set Britain’s fiscal policy on a collision course with the bank’s monetary policy.
Two weeks ago, Ms. Truss resigned, and her successor, Rishi Sunak, has made it clear that he intends to take a different approach to public finances. Later this month, he and the chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, are expected to announce tax increases and spending cuts alongside a plan to cut Britain’s debt.Two weeks ago, Ms. Truss resigned, and her successor, Rishi Sunak, has made it clear that he intends to take a different approach to public finances. Later this month, he and the chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, are expected to announce tax increases and spending cuts alongside a plan to cut Britain’s debt.
Since Britain changed leaders, a lot of the premium on bond yields — the extra amount buyers expected to be paid because of an increase in riskiness — has fallen, but not all of the impact from the recent bout of political and financial volatility has gone away, Mr. Bailey said. Liquidity in markets wasn’t back to where it was and “there has been a questioning of U.K. policy and that will have some lasting effect,” he added. “We have to work very hard to put that in the past.” Since Britain changed leaders, a lot of the premium on bond yields — the extra amount buyers expected to be paid because of an increase in riskiness — has fallen, but not all of the impact from the recent bout of political and financial volatility has gone away, Mr. Bailey said. Liquidity in markets isn’t back to where it was, and “there has been a questioning of U.K. policy and that will have some lasting effect,” he added. “We have to work very hard to put that in the past.”
On Thursday the bank said that the fiscal measures that have been announced so far — including freezing energy bills, abolishing a health and social care tax, and reducing taxes on house purchases — would bolster demand more than the bank forecast three months ago. The bank said on Thursday that the fiscal measures that had been announced so far — including freezing energy bills, abolishing a health and social care tax and reducing taxes on house purchases — would bolster demand more than the bank forecast three months ago.
Seven of the bank’s nine-person rate-setting committee, including Mr. Bailey, voted for the three-quarter point increase in interest rates, noting there were signs of firm inflation in domestic prices and wages that risked making high inflation being more persistent. For example, the labor market remains tight with more people than expected staying out of work, including because of long-term sickness, which was pushing up wages, though not enough to offset inflation. Seven members of the bank’s nine-person rate-setting committee, including Mr. Bailey, voted for the three-quarter-point rate increase, noting there were signs of firm inflation in domestic prices and wages that risked making high inflation being more persistent. For example, the labor market remains tight with more people than expected staying out of work, including because of long-term sickness, which was pushing up wages, though not enough to offset inflation.
The two others on the committee voted for a half-point and quarter-point increase each, arguing that the cost-of-living crisis warranted caution against over-tightening, and that monetary policy was already restrictive. The two others on the committee voted for a half-point and quarter-point increase each, arguing that the cost-of-living crisis warranted caution against over-tightening and that monetary policy was already restrictive.
Among the causes for concern are rising mortgage payments. About 30 percent of British households have a mortgage and most of them have rates that are fixed for just two or five years. The bank said a quarter of mortgages, just over two million, were scheduled to reset their interest rate by the end of next year, which would raise mortgage costs “significantly” for those households. Among the causes for concern are rising mortgage payments. About 30 percent of British households have a mortgage, and most of them have rates that are fixed for just two or five years. The bank said a quarter of mortgages, just over two million, were scheduled to reset their interest rate by the end of next year, which would raise mortgage costs “significantly” for those households.
Overall, the bank predicted that household income, after accounting for taxes and inflation, would fall 0.25 percent this year and 1.5 percent next year. Overall, the bank predicted, household income, after accounting for taxes and inflation, will fall 0.25 percent this year and 1.5 percent next year.
The squeeze on incomes from high inflation and higher mortgage rates is “expected to weigh on household spending for some time,” the bank said. “Despite fiscal support, the energy price shock remains significant.”The squeeze on incomes from high inflation and higher mortgage rates is “expected to weigh on household spending for some time,” the bank said. “Despite fiscal support, the energy price shock remains significant.”
This week, the bank took another step toward firmly bringing the era of easy money to an end. For the first time, it sold government bonds from its huge holdings, taking the process of quantitative tightening further than other central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. On Tuesday, the bank sold 750 million pounds (about $840 billion) worth of government bonds that will mature in 2026 and 2027. This week, the bank took another step toward firmly bringing the era of easy money to an end. For the first time, it sold government bonds from its huge holdings, taking the process of quantitative tightening further than other central banks, including the Fed and the European Central Bank. On Tuesday, the bank sold 750 million pounds (about $840 billion) in government bonds that will mature in 2026 and 2027.
Since 2009, the bank bought nearly £900 billion in bonds, most of them government bonds, to keep borrowing costs low and encourage lending after the financial crisis and during the pandemic. This year as inflation has soared, the bank has let the bonds that mature roll off its balance sheet, but to speed up the process the bank is now selling bonds. The bank said it planned to shrink its balance sheet over the next year by £80 billion, through redemptions and bond sales.Since 2009, the bank bought nearly £900 billion in bonds, most of them government bonds, to keep borrowing costs low and encourage lending after the financial crisis and during the pandemic. This year as inflation has soared, the bank has let the bonds that mature roll off its balance sheet, but to speed up the process the bank is now selling bonds. The bank said it planned to shrink its balance sheet over the next year by £80 billion, through redemptions and bond sales.