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North Korea: Nerve-wracking morning as Japan watches missile launches North Korea: Kim wants Biden's attention ahead of midterms
(34 minutes later)
It comes a day after a record number of missiles were launched from North Korea into seas off the coast of South KoreaIt comes a day after a record number of missiles were launched from North Korea into seas off the coast of South Korea
It has been a confusing and nerve-wracking morning for people living in northern Japan.It has been a confusing and nerve-wracking morning for people living in northern Japan.
At 07:50, air raid sirens went off across Miyagi and Yamagata prefectures and TV programs were interrupted to tell people to take shelter. The Japanese coast guard said a missile fired from North Korea was heading over Japan. They later retracted the statement saying instead the missile splashed down in the Sea of Japan without crossing Japanese territory. At 07:50, air raid alarms went off across Miyagi and Yamagata prefectures and TV programs were interrupted to tell people to take shelter. The Japanese coast guard said a missile fired from North Korea was heading over Japan. North Korean missiles have crossed Japan before - one did last month - but never this far south.
From the initial trajectory and the length of flight (around 30 minutes) Japanese authorities tracking the missile appear to have thought it would go over Japan. Instead, it seems to have flown on a so called "lofted trajectory" high up in to space and then steeply back down into the Sea of Japan. In fact, it turned out to be a false alarm - the missile splashed down in the Sea of Japan, well short of the Japanese coast. There were hurried retractions and corrections from the Ministry of Defence and coastguard, and probably some red faces too.
So false alarm - everyone please calm down and go back to your morning coffee. Well not really. First, firing ballistic missiles towards your neighbours without warning, leaving them to guess where the missile will come down, is not normal behaviour. It is extremely provocative and dangerous, and completely outside of international norms. So, everyone please calm down and go back to your morning coffee. Well, not really.
First, firing ballistic missiles towards your neighbours without warning, leaving them to guess where the missile will come down, is not normal behaviour. It is extremely provocative and dangerous, and completely outside the norms of international behaviour. It is a threat to aircraft and shipping. If the missiles break up it can rain debris on those below.
Second, this comes a day after a record number of missiles were launched from North Korea into seas off the coast of South Korea.Second, this comes a day after a record number of missiles were launched from North Korea into seas off the coast of South Korea.
North Korea is deliberately ramping up tensions with its neighbours. It could be building to something bigger, such as a nuclear test, or a full long range ballistic missile test out in to the Pacific, or both. It also comes just days before crucial US mid-term elections - and Mr Kim will be hoping that showing off his military capabilities will focus minds in the US capital.
This is a pattern we have seen Pyongyang use in the past to gain international attention, especially from Washington, and force South Korea, Japan and the United States in to offering concessions and dialogue. It is doing so again now. So, what is Pyongyang up to?
The latest North Korean salvo comes just days before crucial US mid-term elections - and Mr Kim will be hoping that showing off his military capabilities will focus minds in the US capital. North Korea is deliberately ramping up tensions with its neighbours. Analysts think it is building to something bigger, such as a nuclear test, or a full long-range ballistic missile test out in to the pacific, or both.
But Pyongyang is also far from perfecting its missile technology - particularly its long-range missiles and re-entry vehicles. So, tests like this are not just directed at Japan, but also at the United States. North Korea's aim is to have reliable long-range weapons that can reach the United States. There is a political objective to all this noise. It's a pattern Pyongyang used in 2010 and again in 2017. First, ramp up tensions to a frightening level, then call for engagement and concessions from South Korea, Japan and the United States. Pyongyang is almost certainly doing the same again now.
What missiles has North Korea been testing? But Kim Jong-un has a second objective. The North is still far from perfecting its missile technology.
Why is Kim Jong-un upping the pressure? After the missile is launched in to space the warhead separates and comes back towards earth in a "re-entry vehicle". This must be able to withstand the enormous heat and pressure generated as it plunges through the atmosphere.
If North Korea's intent is to cow Japan, it is having the opposite effect. Japan's right wing has long wanted to re-arm the country and abandon its post war pacifist constitution. In previous tests it appears that North Korea's re-entry vehicles have failed. So, Pyongyang needs to keep on testing to perfect its technology.
Along with the growing power of China, Pyongyang is gives it all the justification it needs. A growing percentage of the Japanese public now support full rearmament. Today's test appears to have flown on what is called a "lofted trajectory", flying high up in to space and then steeply back down. It's possible this was done to test a long-range missile, without flying it over Japan.
In Tokyo the defence ministry is proposing a doubling the defence budget and for the first time acquiring long range strike missiles capable of hitting targets inside North Korea. The ultimate aim is not just to threaten South Korea and Japan. North Korea can do that already.
It is to threaten the US with a nuclear capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Today's test will certainly have shaken those who heard the sirens go off.
But if North Korea's intent is to cow Japan, it is having the opposite effect. Pyongyang's missile tests, along with China's recent threats to Taiwan, are having a profound impact on Japanese politics. For decades Japan's right have called for the post-war pacifist constitution to be scrapped and the country to re-arm.
Until now most ordinary Japanese have said no.
But that is changing, and now the security hawks have all the justification they need to push ahead. Next month the government will propose doubling the defence budget over the next decade, and the acquisition of long-range strike weapons.
Reports suggest Japan is negotiating the purchase of hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. That would mean for the first time since World War II Japan would have the ability to strike at targets deep inside China and North Korea.