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What to Know About Denmark’s Election Denmark Heads for Period of Uncertainty After Snap Election
(about 13 hours later)
Denmark started voting on Tuesday in a general election precipitated by anger over a government-mandated mink cull during the pandemic that embroiled top officials and led to accusations against the prime minister of misleading the public. COPENHAGEN — Denmark on Tuesday voted in a snap general election, precipitated by anger over a government-mandated mink cull during the pandemic that led to accusations that top officials, including the prime minister, misled the public.
A wealthy Scandinavian kingdom that includes Greenland and the Faroe Islands, Denmark is known for its relatively stable, consensus-seeking political culture and its ranking as one of the happiest nations in the world. But with no clear coalition winning a majority of the 179 seats in Parliament, the country is headed for a period of uncertainty, with the stage set for a negotiation between its 14 parties to form a government in the wealthy Scandinavian kingdom, which includes Greenland and the Faroe Islands.
But in a crowded field of more than a dozen parties — including some newcomers — analysts said that the election could throw up some surprises. As late as Monday, there was no clear indication about who was most likely to form the next government. According to exit polls reported by the Danish broadcaster DR late Tuesday night, with 90.4 percent of the votes counted, the center-left Social Democratic Party won the highest proportion of seats, with the center-right Venstre in second place.
The vote has its beginnings in a government decision to cull the country’s mink population during the pandemic over fears that a mutated version of the coronavirus that infected the animals could make a vaccine less effective. The culling was a fiasco that prompted a political crisis. The new Moderates party, led by the former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, gained at least 16 seats, marking Mr. Rasmussen’s return to Parliament and giving him crucial influence over decision-making. The Denmark Democrats, another new party, founded by the former immigration minister Inger Stojberg, also garnered 14 seats. Both leaders have yet to nominate a preferred prime minister.
The order, which led to the killing of some 17 million animals — essentially stoppering the mink industry in a country that had been the world’s top producer of the lucrative pelts — caused uproar. A commission that later investigated the scandal concluded this summer that the move had been illegal and blamed senior officials for misleading the public. “We will know who will be negotiating first, but we don’t have a name,” said Kasper M. Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Copenhagen, adding that the country’s prime minister could be from either center-left or right-leaning parties. “It’s all up in the air.”
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen apologized to the country’s mink farmers, while maintaining that the cull was necessary. But the affair damaged the government’s popularity and prompted the Social Liberals, a key ally of Ms. Frederiksen’s Social Democrats, to pressure the prime minister to either call an early election or face a vote of no confidence. It capped an unpredictable campaign in a crowded field of more than a dozen parties — including some newcomers — where analysts said that the end result came down to a battle of who Danes preferred to lead the country, rather than any dramatic differences in policymaking.
In early October, Ms. Frederiksen set Nov. 1. as the date for the general election. (That date fell on a day of public remembrance in the Faroe Islands for those who have died at sea, so residents there voted on Monday instead.) And though a prime minister is not yet officially confirmed, analysts said that the negotiations would likely lead to an even more centrist government in a country already known for its relatively stable, consensus-seeking political culture.
In the Danish parliamentary democracy, no party on its own has won a clear majority of the 179 seats that make up Parliament, called the Folketing, in more than a century. As such, to pass legislation, parties must form coalitions, with the leader of one of the stronger parties typically becoming prime minister. “Whoever will form the government will actually have a broader support than just their own parties,” said Professor Hansen. “Everybody wants to be in the middle. We will see a very pragmatic Parliament.”
Currently, the center-left Social Democrats, led by Ms. Frederiksen, are in power, with the backing of several other parties. Elections are held every four years, though the country’s prime minister can call early elections at any time. As in many other places, domestic issues rose to the top of the agenda during the campaign. Voters are worried about the economy, including inflation, and the future of the health care system, which is experiencing a labor shortage. And they are concerned about the environment and climate change policy.
Broadly speaking, the left-leaning parties are socially liberal and support higher welfare payments and higher taxes, though they have moved to the right on issues such as immigration, and they have been willing to negotiate with more conservative parties.
The right-leaning parties are less unified but generally support free-market ideals. They have worked with anti-immigration, populist parties to some extent, but they disavow the more extremist right-wing sections of the political spectrum.
As in many other places, domestic issues have risen to the top of the agenda, political analysts say. Voters are worried about the economy, including inflation, labor shortages and lagging salaries, particularly in the health care system. And they are concerned about the environment and climate change policy.
Less important have been issues of foreign policy, including the war in Ukraine. The government has announced increases in military spending and veered from its traditional hesitation over joining European security and defense policy since the war began. That will stay the same regardless of the election result, experts say.Less important have been issues of foreign policy, including the war in Ukraine. The government has announced increases in military spending and veered from its traditional hesitation over joining European security and defense policy since the war began. That will stay the same regardless of the election result, experts say.
“Nothing outside Denmark’s borders has any influence on what Danes will vote on Tuesday,” said Jesper Claus Larsen, an election analyst for Electica, a research organization. “Local issues matter a lot to us,” he added.“Nothing outside Denmark’s borders has any influence on what Danes will vote on Tuesday,” said Jesper Claus Larsen, an election analyst for Electica, a research organization. “Local issues matter a lot to us,” he added.
Once pivotal, immigration has fallen down the agenda, partly because the governing Social Democrats have vowed to remain tough on migration, depriving right-leaning parties of a possible issue, said Kasper M. Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Copenhagen. Once pivotal, immigration has fallen down the agenda, partly because the governing Social Democrats had vowed to remain tough on migration, depriving right-leaning parties of a possible issue, said Professor Hansen. Denmark has some of the toughest anti-immigration laws in Europe.
Denmark, which has some of the toughest anti-immigration laws in Europe, passed legislation that offered Ukrainian refugees expedited residency. But that left many pointing out the contrast with how Denmark has treated asylum seekers from Syria, who have languished for months in deportation centers. In the Danish parliamentary democracy, no party on its own has won a clear majority of the 179 seats that make up Parliament, called the Folketing, in more than a century. As such, to pass legislation parties must form coalitions, with the leader of one of the stronger parties typically becoming prime minister.
Generally, the main parties have navigated around major disagreements on key subjects, Professor Hansen said, with the system promoting the need to find consensus. “They’ve really been good at putting these issues to bed,” he noted. Perhaps one upshot of that in this election, however, is that the personalities of the leaders have come to the fore. The center-left Social Democrats, led by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, have been in power since 2019 with the backing of several other parties. Elections are held every four years, though the country’s prime minister can call early elections at any time.
Though the electorate will ostensibly vote for a party, analysts say that it will really come down to which leader they prefer to steer Denmark. Broadly speaking, the left-leaning parties are socially liberal and support higher welfare payments and higher taxes, though they have moved to the right on issues such as immigration, and they have been willing to negotiate with more conservative parties.
On the center-left, the main contender is Ms. Frederiksen, who had been praised for her straightforward, clear style during the pandemic but whose reputation was sullied by the mink scandal. The right-leaning parties are less unified but generally support free-market ideals. They have worked with anti-immigration, populist parties to some extent, but they disavow the more extremist right-wing sections of the political spectrum.
On the center and center-right, there are several main figures: Though the electorate ostensibly voted for a party, analysts say that it came down to which leader they preferred to steer Denmark.
Lars Lokke Rasmussen, a former prime minister who broke from the center-right Venstre party to make a comeback campaigning with his new Moderates party, which has not yet declared loyalty to any coalition. On the center-left, the main contender was Ms. Frederiksen, who had been praised for her straightforward, clear style during the pandemic but whose reputation was sullied by the mink scandal.
Inger Stojberg, a former immigration minister for the Venstre party who was impeached for the illegal separation of asylum-seeking couples and who is leading another newly formed party, the Denmark Democrats. On the center and right, there were several main figures:
Mr. Rasmussen, a former prime minister who broke from the center-right Venstre party to make a comeback campaigning with his new Moderates party. The party has said that the dream scenario is a coalition between the Social Democrats, the Moderates, Venstre and the Conservative People’s Party.
Inger Stojberg, a former immigration minister for the Venstre party who was impeached for the illegal separation of asylum-seeking couples and who is leading another newly formed party, the Denmark Democrats — Inger Støjberg. The party’s name puts Ms. Stojberg’s name on every ballot.
Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, leader of the Venstre party, the main opposition group.Jakob Ellemann-Jensen, leader of the Venstre party, the main opposition group.
Soren Pape Poulsen, leader of the Conservative People’s Party.Soren Pape Poulsen, leader of the Conservative People’s Party.
“This election is going to be the most personal election in Danish political history,” said Mr. Larsen, the election analyst, adding that it was a significant shift from the tradition of voting for a party affiliation rather than for a specific candidate. “We are moving in the direction of what typically drives American politics,” he noted. The election was the most personal election in Danish political history, said Mr. Larsen, the election analyst, adding that it was a significant shift from the tradition of voting along party affiliation rather than for a specific candidate. “We are moving in the direction of what typically drives American politics,” he noted.
What a coalition will look like remained uncertain on Monday night, with polls showing neither center-left or center-right faction ahead with a clear majority. But the polls did suggest that the newly formed Moderates party under Mr. Rasmussen would most likely muster enough seats to have crucial sway over the formation of the next government. That could take some time, and it is even possible that Mr. Rasmussen himself becomes prime minister. Polls leading up to the vote had pointed to an uncertain race, with neither center-left or right-leaning parties ahead with a clear majority. But they had suggested that the newly formed Moderates party under Mr. Rasmussen would muster enough seats to be influential in the next government.
“It looks like he will be king maker,” Professor Hansen said. “He will definitely be decisive.” “The ambition, with which we will go into Parliament, is that the Moderates are the voice of reason,” he said on Tuesday night. But he did not say who he would chose as prime minister.
Many Danes have expressed uncertainty about which party to back on Tuesday. Ms. Stojberg called it a “great night and great result.”
“It seems that more and more people are unstable when it comes to their party choice,” Professor Hansen said. But even with changes in parties’ share of the vote, he said, policymaking would probably remain consensus-seeking and consistent. “It is better than any of us could have expected,” she said on Tuesday night, adding that her party would “seek influence.”
And far-right parties, whose strong showing in the 2015 election was followed up by a decline in the 2019 election, were not expected to make gains. Many Danes expressed uncertainty about which party to back even up the moment to vote. Outside a polling place in Copenhagen, two friends and roommates had just voted.
“Most likely we will not see any major changes — but we will definitely see some new faces,” Professor Hansen said. Jacob Jensen, 23, a physiotherapist student, said he had voted for the Moderates, primarily because of Mr. Rasmussen.
“I thought he did well when he was prime minister,” Mr. Jensen said. “I think he is good at building trust, he has his facts straight, is sharp and capable, and seems calm.”
Both he, and his friend and roommate, Mats Greve Hansen, said that they had been unsure about whom to vote for up until half an hour before they left for the polling station.
Mr. Jensen said he had considered voting for the Liberal Alliance, with which he agreed on some issues but not others. In the end, Mr. Jensen voted for Mr. Rasmussen. “I voted for him, because he is him,” he said.
Louise Fraendemark, 38, a lawyer, said that she thought the election campaign had been messy.
“There has been far too little focus on politics, and far too much focus on everything else. I am not convinced that they even know what they want.”
Very undecided about whom to vote for, Ms. Fraendemark said she actually made up her mind in the voting booth.
“For the first time in my life, I’ve had doubts,” she said, adding that it had been difficult for her to get more clarity. “The only one who has been reasonably clear in the election campaign has been Lars Lokke Rasmussen,” she said.
Jasmina Nielsen contributed reporting from Copenhagen and Isabella Kwai contributed reported from London.