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| Liz Truss: The pitfalls lying ahead of an embattled prime minister | Liz Truss: The pitfalls lying ahead of an embattled prime minister |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| After a tumultuous first month in office, marked by party divisions and unrest over her economic policy, Liz Truss's promise to "deliver" is at risk of being thwarted in Parliament. | After a tumultuous first month in office, marked by party divisions and unrest over her economic policy, Liz Truss's promise to "deliver" is at risk of being thwarted in Parliament. |
| A chunk of Tory MPs are opposed to parts of Ms Truss's agenda, and the prime minister may struggle to push through changes despite her party's majority in the Commons. | A chunk of Tory MPs are opposed to parts of Ms Truss's agenda, and the prime minister may struggle to push through changes despite her party's majority in the Commons. |
| As Parliament returns this week, we've looked at some of the upcoming moments of turbulence that could knock Ms Truss's government off course. | As Parliament returns this week, we've looked at some of the upcoming moments of turbulence that could knock Ms Truss's government off course. |
| 1) The economic plan | 1) The economic plan |
| Financial markets reacted badly to Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's so-called mini-budget, which included the biggest tax cuts in decades but few details on how they would be paid for. | Financial markets reacted badly to Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's so-called mini-budget, which included the biggest tax cuts in decades but few details on how they would be paid for. |
| Economic turmoil followed as the pound's value plummeted, borrowing costs soared, and the Bank of England bailed out pension funds. | Economic turmoil followed as the pound's value plummeted, borrowing costs soared, and the Bank of England bailed out pension funds. |
| In a move to calm the markets, Mr Kwarteng said he would set out his economic plan and an independent forecast of the nation's finances on 23 November. | In a move to calm the markets, Mr Kwarteng said he would set out his economic plan and an independent forecast of the nation's finances on 23 November. |
| But after Tory MPs - and the markets - expressed concerns, the chancellor brought forward his plan and the forecast. | But after Tory MPs - and the markets - expressed concerns, the chancellor brought forward his plan and the forecast. |
| "I know the plan put forward only 10 days ago has caused a little turbulence, I get it.." | "I know the plan put forward only 10 days ago has caused a little turbulence, I get it.." |
| "I know the plan put forward only 10 days ago has caused a little turbulence, I get it.." | "I know the plan put forward only 10 days ago has caused a little turbulence, I get it.." |
| A date of 31 October has been set, with Mr Kwarteng expected to give a statement to MPs in Parliament. | A date of 31 October has been set, with Mr Kwarteng expected to give a statement to MPs in Parliament. |
| Much will depend on the forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which will assess whether the government's sums add up. | Much will depend on the forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which will assess whether the government's sums add up. |
| One influential think tank has warned that Mr Kwarteng would have to make "big and painful cuts" of up to £60bn to balance the books - something that may be unpopular with the government's own MPs. | One influential think tank has warned that Mr Kwarteng would have to make "big and painful cuts" of up to £60bn to balance the books - something that may be unpopular with the government's own MPs. |
| MPs do have to approve most changes to public spending through the estimates process in Parliament, but, realistically, this provides limited opportunity to block cuts. | MPs do have to approve most changes to public spending through the estimates process in Parliament, but, realistically, this provides limited opportunity to block cuts. |
| 2) The mini-budget | 2) The mini-budget |
| The reaction from Tory MPs and the markets to 31 October statement will give the government a better indication of whether its mini-budget can survive contact with political reality. | The reaction from Tory MPs and the markets to 31 October statement will give the government a better indication of whether its mini-budget can survive contact with political reality. |
| And many of the measures outlined in the mini-budget will require legislation and therefore approval by MPs. Tax cuts and other budget measures are usually passed into law through a finance bill. | And many of the measures outlined in the mini-budget will require legislation and therefore approval by MPs. Tax cuts and other budget measures are usually passed into law through a finance bill. |
| This bill will need to be passed into law by April next year, before the start of the next financial year. But if the government wanted, it could introduce the bill to Parliament earlier. | |
| If the market turmoil continues, Tory MPs may be less minded to support the bill, leaving the government in a vulnerable position. | |
| However, the defeat of a finance bill as a whole would be seen as a vote of no confidence in the government, and is therefore very unlikely. | |
| Financial market turmoil followed the government's mini-budget, announced by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng | Financial market turmoil followed the government's mini-budget, announced by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng |
| Previous governments have survived defeats on specific parts of their budgets, most commonly tax cuts or rises. But if an amendment to the finance bill is selected and passes, that would be one of the likely moments of danger for Ms Truss's government. | |
| 3) Uprating benefits | 3) Uprating benefits |
| The former chancellor Rishi Sunak had promised to tie benefits payments in line with inflation (in other words, the rising cost of living). | The former chancellor Rishi Sunak had promised to tie benefits payments in line with inflation (in other words, the rising cost of living). |
| But Ms Truss's government is yet to commit to this and it has been reported that benefits such as universal credit could be raised in line with earnings, rather than prices. | But Ms Truss's government is yet to commit to this and it has been reported that benefits such as universal credit could be raised in line with earnings, rather than prices. |
| The political optics of this decision during a cost-of-living crisis have not gone unnoticed by Tory MPs and some cabinet ministers, including Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, who have urged Ms Truss to honour the inflation-linked increase. | The political optics of this decision during a cost-of-living crisis have not gone unnoticed by Tory MPs and some cabinet ministers, including Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, who have urged Ms Truss to honour the inflation-linked increase. |
| Some benefits - such as the disability living allowance - do have to be uprated in line with inflation, by law. If the government wanted to uprate those benefits in line with earnings, it would need to pass a whole new law, which would face stiff resistance inside and outside Parliament. But there's no suggestion this is on the cards. | Some benefits - such as the disability living allowance - do have to be uprated in line with inflation, by law. If the government wanted to uprate those benefits in line with earnings, it would need to pass a whole new law, which would face stiff resistance inside and outside Parliament. But there's no suggestion this is on the cards. |
| There are different rules for other benefits, including universal credit, which can be increased through tweaks to existing law. | There are different rules for other benefits, including universal credit, which can be increased through tweaks to existing law. |
| If the government decides to increase these benefits by earnings rather than the higher level of inflation, MPs could try to make a parliamentary challenge. However, the process is complicated, and not risk-free. | |
| MPs might prefer to force ministers into a U-turn by amending the finance bill or other government draft laws. | |
| The Institute for Government says rebellious MPs may opt to "effectively hold up Truss's agenda up until they get concessions on benefits". | The Institute for Government says rebellious MPs may opt to "effectively hold up Truss's agenda up until they get concessions on benefits". |
| The government is likely to make its announcement on benefits on 31 October, and any change should be passed early in the new year, taking effect in April. | The government is likely to make its announcement on benefits on 31 October, and any change should be passed early in the new year, taking effect in April. |
| 4) Fracking | 4) Fracking |
| In her first speech as prime minister, Ms Truss said dealing with the energy crisis would be one of her main priorities. | In her first speech as prime minister, Ms Truss said dealing with the energy crisis would be one of her main priorities. |
| She announced support for energy bills and lifted the ban on fracking, a controversial method of mining for shale gas. | She announced support for energy bills and lifted the ban on fracking, a controversial method of mining for shale gas. |
| Ms Truss has said fracking will only resume where there is local consent. | Ms Truss has said fracking will only resume where there is local consent. |
| But Conservative opinion is divided on fracking, which was halted in 2019 following opposition from environmentalists, and local concerns over earthquakes linked to the practice. | But Conservative opinion is divided on fracking, which was halted in 2019 following opposition from environmentalists, and local concerns over earthquakes linked to the practice. |
| Ms Truss's government has backed fracking as a way to boost the UK's domestic gas supplies | Ms Truss's government has backed fracking as a way to boost the UK's domestic gas supplies |
| Some Tory MPs would like to see the ban re-imposed, while others are concerned about how local consent could be obtained in a fair way. | Some Tory MPs would like to see the ban re-imposed, while others are concerned about how local consent could be obtained in a fair way. |
| Many green-minded Conservatives have already spoken out against the fracking ban being lifted. However, given that overturning the ban does not require a new law, MPs may have to find other ways to get ministers to back down. | |
| When asked if there should be a vote on fracking in Parliament, Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg told the BBC there were "any number of mechanisms MPs can use to have a say on things". | |
| Some Tories have told the BBCthey are in talks with opposition parties to try to block the government's fracking plans. | Some Tories have told the BBCthey are in talks with opposition parties to try to block the government's fracking plans. |
| They may try to amend the Energy Bill - although there is uncertainty over when this will come back to Parliament. | They may try to amend the Energy Bill - although there is uncertainty over when this will come back to Parliament. |
| Another method could be through a vote called by Labour during a parliamentary session known as as an opposition day debate. | Another method could be through a vote called by Labour during a parliamentary session known as as an opposition day debate. |
| If backed by enough Tory MPs, the vote could be used to show a lack of support for fracking in Parliament. While the vote would not be binding, defeat would compromise the government politically. | If backed by enough Tory MPs, the vote could be used to show a lack of support for fracking in Parliament. While the vote would not be binding, defeat would compromise the government politically. |
| 5) Planning reform | 5) Planning reform |
| Another big plank of Ms Truss's programme is reform of planning law. She's mentioned this in several speeches, and in his mini-budget speech, the chancellor said "we will bring forward a new bill to unpick the complex patchwork of planning restrictions". | Another big plank of Ms Truss's programme is reform of planning law. She's mentioned this in several speeches, and in his mini-budget speech, the chancellor said "we will bring forward a new bill to unpick the complex patchwork of planning restrictions". |
| As yet, no date has been set to debate these reforms, which are likely to be viewed with scepticism by some MPs. | As yet, no date has been set to debate these reforms, which are likely to be viewed with scepticism by some MPs. |
| Planning reform is a touchy subject for some Tory MPs, particularly those in rural areas. | Planning reform is a touchy subject for some Tory MPs, particularly those in rural areas. |
| When planning reforms were last pursued by Mr Johnson's government, some of them were scrapped at the insistence of Tory MPs. | When planning reforms were last pursued by Mr Johnson's government, some of them were scrapped at the insistence of Tory MPs. |
| 6) Net zero review | 6) Net zero review |
| In 2019, the UK made a legally binding commitment to reach the target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. When he was prime minister, Mr Johnson was an enthusiastic supporter of net zero. | In 2019, the UK made a legally binding commitment to reach the target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. When he was prime minister, Mr Johnson was an enthusiastic supporter of net zero. |
| But at a time of historically high energy prices and soaring inflation, some Tory MPs have questioned the wisdom of spending money on hitting the target. | But at a time of historically high energy prices and soaring inflation, some Tory MPs have questioned the wisdom of spending money on hitting the target. |
| Their concerns have been taken on board by Ms Truss, who has commissioned an independent review into the delivery of net zero. | Their concerns have been taken on board by Ms Truss, who has commissioned an independent review into the delivery of net zero. |
| Led by former energy minister Chris Skidmore, the review with a focus on "ensuring the UK's fight against climate change maximises economic growth, while increasing energy security and affordability for consumers and businesses". | Led by former energy minister Chris Skidmore, the review with a focus on "ensuring the UK's fight against climate change maximises economic growth, while increasing energy security and affordability for consumers and businesses". |
| He will report to the government with a set of recommendations by the end of this year. | He will report to the government with a set of recommendations by the end of this year. |