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OBR: What is it and when will its forecast be published? Office for Budget Responsibility: What is the OBR and why does it matter?
(32 minutes later)
Official UK economic forecasts will be published on 31 October, the government has announced. An official forecast of how the UK economy is expected to perform will be published on 31 October, the government says.
Carried out by Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the forecasts will assess the impact of last month's mini-budget. Carried out by Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), it will assess the impact of last month's mini-budget.
What is the OBR?What is the OBR?
The OBR is an independent body that examines the decisions taken in government Budgets.The OBR is an independent body that examines the decisions taken in government Budgets.
This includes setting out economic forecasts - calculations of the most likely thing that will happen in the future, given all the facts available.This includes setting out economic forecasts - calculations of the most likely thing that will happen in the future, given all the facts available.
But OBR forecasts were not published alongside the mini-budget on 23 September, despite the government being under pressure to provide an independent financial assessment.But OBR forecasts were not published alongside the mini-budget on 23 September, despite the government being under pressure to provide an independent financial assessment.
Financial markets reacted badly to the mini-budget plan to cut taxes by £43bn - the value of the pound fell and the cost of government borrowing went up.Financial markets reacted badly to the mini-budget plan to cut taxes by £43bn - the value of the pound fell and the cost of government borrowing went up.
Critics - including Parliament's Treasury Select Committee - suggested the lack of forecasts had contributed to this reaction, and called for them to be published.Critics - including Parliament's Treasury Select Committee - suggested the lack of forecasts had contributed to this reaction, and called for them to be published.
Kwarteng brings forward debt plan to calm marketsKwarteng brings forward debt plan to calm markets
Where does the government borrow billions from?Where does the government borrow billions from?
Why did the pound tumble?Why did the pound tumble?
Why were forecasts not published alongside the mini-budget?Why were forecasts not published alongside the mini-budget?
The OBR normally publishes its own forecasts alongside government Budgets.The OBR normally publishes its own forecasts alongside government Budgets.
It had offered to prepare a draft forecast in time for the mini-budget, but the government did not take it up.It had offered to prepare a draft forecast in time for the mini-budget, but the government did not take it up.
The Treasury defended the controversy. It said it had acted at "immense speed" to offer support for households. It added it remained committed to the OBR publishing official forecasts twice a year.The Treasury defended the controversy. It said it had acted at "immense speed" to offer support for households. It added it remained committed to the OBR publishing official forecasts twice a year.
Instead, in the aftermath of the mini-budget, the government asked the OBR to produce a forecast for 23 November.Instead, in the aftermath of the mini-budget, the government asked the OBR to produce a forecast for 23 November.
The forecasts will now be brought forward and published on 31 October - alongside the government's plan to pay for the measures and reduce debt.The forecasts will now be brought forward and published on 31 October - alongside the government's plan to pay for the measures and reduce debt.
The new date means the government's debt plan, along with the OBR forecasts, will be published before the Bank of England announces its next interest rate decision in early November.The new date means the government's debt plan, along with the OBR forecasts, will be published before the Bank of England announces its next interest rate decision in early November.
Bringing forward the OBR report could result in a smaller interest rates rise, if markets react positively, says Mel Stride, the chair of the Treasury Select Committee.Bringing forward the OBR report could result in a smaller interest rates rise, if markets react positively, says Mel Stride, the chair of the Treasury Select Committee.
What is the OBR and why does it matter? Why does the OBR matter?
The OBR was created in 2010 to provide an independent analysis of the government's financial decisions.The OBR was created in 2010 to provide an independent analysis of the government's financial decisions.
It usually produces economic forecasts twice a year, to accompany each autumn Budget and spring statement. These are the events where the government outlines its main tax and spending policies.It usually produces economic forecasts twice a year, to accompany each autumn Budget and spring statement. These are the events where the government outlines its main tax and spending policies.
The OBR's forecasts sets out the cost and impact of new policies, how much tax will be raised and what it means for borrowing and growth.The OBR's forecasts sets out the cost and impact of new policies, how much tax will be raised and what it means for borrowing and growth.
These forecasts are important because a strong one gives investors confidence to put money into the UK economy - whereas a weak one is likely to have the opposite effect.These forecasts are important because a strong one gives investors confidence to put money into the UK economy - whereas a weak one is likely to have the opposite effect.
The government can request forecasts from the OBR at any time to get independent advice on big policy announcements.The government can request forecasts from the OBR at any time to get independent advice on big policy announcements.