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| Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion? | Crimean bridge: Who - or what - caused the explosion? |
| (4 months later) | |
| Watch: The moment explosion hits Crimea bridge | Watch: The moment explosion hits Crimea bridge |
| Watch: The moment explosion hits Crimea bridge | Watch: The moment explosion hits Crimea bridge |
| What do we know about what caused Saturday's dramatic explosion on the Kerch Bridge? | What do we know about what caused Saturday's dramatic explosion on the Kerch Bridge? |
| There are plenty of theories, not all of them very credible. | There are plenty of theories, not all of them very credible. |
| Russia was quick to suggest this was a truck (lorry) bomb, but didn't say who orchestrated it. | Russia was quick to suggest this was a truck (lorry) bomb, but didn't say who orchestrated it. |
| Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of attacking the bridge in an "act of terrorism". | Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of attacking the bridge in an "act of terrorism". |
| Security camera footage released on social media showed a truck - allegedly from the Russian city of Krasnodar, an hour's drive from the crossing - moving west across the bridge at the time of the explosion. | Security camera footage released on social media showed a truck - allegedly from the Russian city of Krasnodar, an hour's drive from the crossing - moving west across the bridge at the time of the explosion. |
| Russian officials named a 25-year old Krasnodar man, Samir Yusubov, as the owner of the truck, and said an older relative, Makhir Yusubov, was the driver. | Russian officials named a 25-year old Krasnodar man, Samir Yusubov, as the owner of the truck, and said an older relative, Makhir Yusubov, was the driver. |
| But close examination of the footage seems to show that the truck had nothing to do with the explosion. | But close examination of the footage seems to show that the truck had nothing to do with the explosion. |
| The footage shows a huge fireball erupting just behind - and to one side - of the truck as it begins to climb an elevated section of the bridge. | The footage shows a huge fireball erupting just behind - and to one side - of the truck as it begins to climb an elevated section of the bridge. |
| The speed with which the truck bomb theory started to spread in Russian circles was suspicious. It suggested the Kremlin preferred an act of terrorism to a more alarming possibility: that this was an audacious act of sabotage carried out by Ukraine. | The speed with which the truck bomb theory started to spread in Russian circles was suspicious. It suggested the Kremlin preferred an act of terrorism to a more alarming possibility: that this was an audacious act of sabotage carried out by Ukraine. |
| "I've seen plenty of large vehicle-borne IEDs [improvised explosive devices] in my time," a former British army explosives expert told me. "This does not look like one." | "I've seen plenty of large vehicle-borne IEDs [improvised explosive devices] in my time," a former British army explosives expert told me. "This does not look like one." |
| A more plausible explanation, he said, is a massive explosion below the bridge - probably delivered using some kind of clandestine maritime drone. | A more plausible explanation, he said, is a massive explosion below the bridge - probably delivered using some kind of clandestine maritime drone. |
| "Bridges are generally designed to resist downwards loads on the deck and a certain amount of side loading from the wind," he said. "They are not generally engineered to resist upward loads. I think this fact was exploited in the Ukrainian attack." | "Bridges are generally designed to resist downwards loads on the deck and a certain amount of side loading from the wind," he said. "They are not generally engineered to resist upward loads. I think this fact was exploited in the Ukrainian attack." |
| Some observers have noted that in one of the other security camera videos, something that looks like the bow wave of a small boat appears next to one of the bridge supports, a split second before the explosion. | Some observers have noted that in one of the other security camera videos, something that looks like the bow wave of a small boat appears next to one of the bridge supports, a split second before the explosion. |
| What kind of vessel could it be? | What kind of vessel could it be? |
| Watch: Is this what caused the Crimean bridge explosion? | Watch: Is this what caused the Crimean bridge explosion? |
| Watch: Is this what caused the Crimean bridge explosion? | Watch: Is this what caused the Crimean bridge explosion? |
| On 21 September, images circulated on Russian social media channels showing a mysterious unmanned boat that washed ashore near Russia's naval base in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. | On 21 September, images circulated on Russian social media channels showing a mysterious unmanned boat that washed ashore near Russia's naval base in the Crimean city of Sevastopol. |
| It resembled a large black covered kayak, complete with bow-mounted sensors and a white, periscope-like device on top | It resembled a large black covered kayak, complete with bow-mounted sensors and a white, periscope-like device on top |
| According to local reports, the vessel was towed out to sea and blown up. | According to local reports, the vessel was towed out to sea and blown up. |
| "A part of an unmanned vehicle was discovered," the governor of Russian-controlled Sevastopol is quoted as saying. | "A part of an unmanned vehicle was discovered," the governor of Russian-controlled Sevastopol is quoted as saying. |
| "After the survey was completed, this apparatus was destroyed at sea by an explosion. No-one was hurt." | "After the survey was completed, this apparatus was destroyed at sea by an explosion. No-one was hurt." |
| This is not the first time reports have circulated suggesting that Ukraine has access to such clandestine equipment. | This is not the first time reports have circulated suggesting that Ukraine has access to such clandestine equipment. |
| "There are well-founded reports which suggest that the Ukrainians have both surveillance and strike maritime remote controlled vehicles in service," the British explosives expert told me. | "There are well-founded reports which suggest that the Ukrainians have both surveillance and strike maritime remote controlled vehicles in service," the British explosives expert told me. |
| "This operational concept has been developed over years, not months." | "This operational concept has been developed over years, not months." |
| If this is how Ukraine managed to attack the Kerch Bridge, hundreds of miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory, then it's one of Kyiv's most ambitious operations so far. | If this is how Ukraine managed to attack the Kerch Bridge, hundreds of miles from Ukrainian-controlled territory, then it's one of Kyiv's most ambitious operations so far. |
| But apart from a few whispers in the capital, no-one is confirming the theory. | But apart from a few whispers in the capital, no-one is confirming the theory. |
| The $3.7bn (£2.7bn) bridge links southern Russia with the territory it annexed in 2014 (2018 report) | The $3.7bn (£2.7bn) bridge links southern Russia with the territory it annexed in 2014 (2018 report) |
| The $3.7bn (£2.7bn) bridge links southern Russia with the territory it annexed in 2014 (2018 report) | The $3.7bn (£2.7bn) bridge links southern Russia with the territory it annexed in 2014 (2018 report) |
| In fact, in a statement last night, the head of President Zelensky's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, seemed to endorse Moscow's truck bomb theory. | In fact, in a statement last night, the head of President Zelensky's office, Mykhailo Podolyak, seemed to endorse Moscow's truck bomb theory. |
| "The answers should be sought in Russia," he said in a statement. | "The answers should be sought in Russia," he said in a statement. |
| The explosion, he said, was the result of infighting between different parts of Russia's security establishment. | The explosion, he said, was the result of infighting between different parts of Russia's security establishment. |
| "This is a concrete manifestation of the conflict between the FSB [Russia's internal intelligence service] / PMC [private military contractors, like the Wagner Group] on the one hand, and the Ministry of Defence / general staff of the Russian Federation on the other hand," he said. | "This is a concrete manifestation of the conflict between the FSB [Russia's internal intelligence service] / PMC [private military contractors, like the Wagner Group] on the one hand, and the Ministry of Defence / general staff of the Russian Federation on the other hand," he said. |
| Did Mr Podolyak know something everyone else didn't? Or was he, perhaps, trolling Moscow, playing on extremely raw nerves exposed by Russia's recent setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine? | Did Mr Podolyak know something everyone else didn't? Or was he, perhaps, trolling Moscow, playing on extremely raw nerves exposed by Russia's recent setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine? |
| The truth is, we don't know. | The truth is, we don't know. |
| Just like previous episodes - including the sinking of the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, and the mysterious attack in August which devastated a Russian airbase in Crimea - Kyiv is very happy to keep everyone guessing. | Just like previous episodes - including the sinking of the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva, and the mysterious attack in August which devastated a Russian airbase in Crimea - Kyiv is very happy to keep everyone guessing. |
| It's all part of a highly successful information campaign which Ukraine has waged, along with its military effort, ever since Russia's full-scale invasion in February. | It's all part of a highly successful information campaign which Ukraine has waged, along with its military effort, ever since Russia's full-scale invasion in February. |
| For now, it seems to be working. | For now, it seems to be working. |
| Related Topics | Related Topics |
| Europe | |
| Russia-Ukraine war | Russia-Ukraine war |
| Russia | Russia |
| Crimea | Crimea |
| Ukraine | Ukraine |