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| Is there any truth in St Swithin's lore? | Is there any truth in St Swithin's lore? |
| (10 minutes later) | |
| It's St Swithin's Day and folklore dictates that rain today means rain for the next 40 days. But, asks weather forecaster Philip Eden, is there any truth in the tradition? | It's St Swithin's Day and folklore dictates that rain today means rain for the next 40 days. But, asks weather forecaster Philip Eden, is there any truth in the tradition? |
| St Swithin's is the day, but St Swithun was the man - a prominent character in 9th Century Wessex, born in or around the year 800 in Winchester. | St Swithin's is the day, but St Swithun was the man - a prominent character in 9th Century Wessex, born in or around the year 800 in Winchester. |
| A cleric and adviser to King Aethelwulf by the time he was 40, and in his later years a mentor to the young Alfred, history does not record whether Swithun had much aptitude for weather forecasting. | A cleric and adviser to King Aethelwulf by the time he was 40, and in his later years a mentor to the young Alfred, history does not record whether Swithun had much aptitude for weather forecasting. |
| But it's the weather for which he is chiefly associated these days. | But it's the weather for which he is chiefly associated these days. |
| THE ANSWER There's a pinch of truth in St Swithin's loreWeather often becomes locked into a pattern in high summer, only changing when autumnal influences begin to appear in late-August | THE ANSWER There's a pinch of truth in St Swithin's loreWeather often becomes locked into a pattern in high summer, only changing when autumnal influences begin to appear in late-August |
| The fifteenth of July is Swithun's feast day and weather lore holds that should it rain on this day, it will carry on raining for 40 days - until August 23 to be precise. | The fifteenth of July is Swithun's feast day and weather lore holds that should it rain on this day, it will carry on raining for 40 days - until August 23 to be precise. |
| The 18th Century writer, John Gay put it this way: | The 18th Century writer, John Gay put it this way: |
| But why should the story of Swithun have become so entangled with the meteorological elements? The legend explains it thus. | But why should the story of Swithun have become so entangled with the meteorological elements? The legend explains it thus. |
| Swithun had a death bed request - to be buried, not with his episcopal predecessors in a prominent place within Winchester cathedral, but outside in a simple tomb, "where the sweet rain of heaven may fall upon my grave". | Swithun had a death bed request - to be buried, not with his episcopal predecessors in a prominent place within Winchester cathedral, but outside in a simple tomb, "where the sweet rain of heaven may fall upon my grave". |
| It is said that his successor bishop, Aethelwold, and perhaps King Edgar too, considered it unworthy for such an important figure to be buried outside. Instead a great ceremony was arranged to translate Swithun's remains to a magnificent shrine in the church. | It is said that his successor bishop, Aethelwold, and perhaps King Edgar too, considered it unworthy for such an important figure to be buried outside. Instead a great ceremony was arranged to translate Swithun's remains to a magnificent shrine in the church. |
| Winchester Cathedral - spiritual home to Swithun | |
| This ceremony took place on 15 July in the year 971, but was ruined by a tremendous rainstorm, which broke a period of drought. The weather remained abnormally rainy for several weeks thereafter. | This ceremony took place on 15 July in the year 971, but was ruined by a tremendous rainstorm, which broke a period of drought. The weather remained abnormally rainy for several weeks thereafter. |
| This disaster was viewed as an indication of divine displeasure, and Swithun's bones were left where they were. | This disaster was viewed as an indication of divine displeasure, and Swithun's bones were left where they were. |
| That's the fable at least. Historical and archaeological evidence only partially support it. Swithun's original tomb has been excavated, but it seems his remains were moved to a new site in the old minster, and subsequently to the new cathedral which replaced it at the end of the 11th Century. | That's the fable at least. Historical and archaeological evidence only partially support it. Swithun's original tomb has been excavated, but it seems his remains were moved to a new site in the old minster, and subsequently to the new cathedral which replaced it at the end of the 11th Century. |
| Whatever the old rhymes may say about rain, meteorologists regard the middle of July as marking the warmest segment of the summer, on average. Mean daily maximum temperature values for London (Kew Observatory) between 1871 and 1980 exceed 22°C every day from 11 to 22 July inclusive, and then on scattered days until 17 August. | Whatever the old rhymes may say about rain, meteorologists regard the middle of July as marking the warmest segment of the summer, on average. Mean daily maximum temperature values for London (Kew Observatory) between 1871 and 1980 exceed 22°C every day from 11 to 22 July inclusive, and then on scattered days until 17 August. |
| But what about that rain? | But what about that rain? |
| According to the old saying, if it rains on St Swithin's Day it will rain for the next 40 days. Less often quoted though, but an essential part of the traditional lore, if St Swithin's Day is dry, the next 40 days will also be dry. | According to the old saying, if it rains on St Swithin's Day it will rain for the next 40 days. Less often quoted though, but an essential part of the traditional lore, if St Swithin's Day is dry, the next 40 days will also be dry. |
| The times that we all hoped would last... | |
| No-one takes the prediction literally, few take it seriously, and any statistical analysis will certainly support such scepticism. | No-one takes the prediction literally, few take it seriously, and any statistical analysis will certainly support such scepticism. |
| I suppose it is possible that the wettest parts of the Western Highlands of Scotland - above Loch Quoich in Lochaber, for instance - will have 30 to 35 rainy days between 15 July and 24 August in the most inclement summers. | I suppose it is possible that the wettest parts of the Western Highlands of Scotland - above Loch Quoich in Lochaber, for instance - will have 30 to 35 rainy days between 15 July and 24 August in the most inclement summers. |
| But Swithun was a Wessex saint, not a Scottish one, and the old weather lore applied originally to southern England. | But Swithun was a Wessex saint, not a Scottish one, and the old weather lore applied originally to southern England. |
| At my own weather-recording site in Bedfordshire, the closest our unsuspecting ancient forecaster got was in 1985. Then, 30 of the 40 days following St Swithin's Day brought some rain, little or much, although July 15 itself was miserly in its offering with just a few light evening showers. | At my own weather-recording site in Bedfordshire, the closest our unsuspecting ancient forecaster got was in 1985. Then, 30 of the 40 days following St Swithin's Day brought some rain, little or much, although July 15 itself was miserly in its offering with just a few light evening showers. |
| The obverse was almost proved in 1995 when only two of the 40 days following a dry Swithin produced rain, and then only small quantities of it. | The obverse was almost proved in 1995 when only two of the 40 days following a dry Swithin produced rain, and then only small quantities of it. |
| Nearly as successful were 1990 and 1983. | Nearly as successful were 1990 and 1983. |
| WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular part of the BBC News Magazine, Who, What, Why? Aims to answer some of the questions behind the headlines | WHO, WHAT, WHY? A regular part of the BBC News Magazine, Who, What, Why? Aims to answer some of the questions behind the headlines |
| But those old enough to remember the heatwave summer of 1976 need to tread carefully when applying Swithin's rule. | But those old enough to remember the heatwave summer of 1976 need to tread carefully when applying Swithin's rule. |
| Of the 40 days following 15 July, small amounts of rain fell on only two. St Swithin's Day itself was fine and hot, but a violent thunderstorm broke at midnight British Summer Time - 11pm by nature's clock - and over an inch of rain fell in an hour. | Of the 40 days following 15 July, small amounts of rain fell on only two. St Swithin's Day itself was fine and hot, but a violent thunderstorm broke at midnight British Summer Time - 11pm by nature's clock - and over an inch of rain fell in an hour. |
| This was the most rain attributed to July 15 in the last 50 years. | This was the most rain attributed to July 15 in the last 50 years. |
| There is much to be learnt from old weather fables, as we do not take the old rhymes and sayings literally. Our ancestors used them to pass on knowledge down the generations in an easily memorable form, at a time when ordinary folk could neither read nor write. | There is much to be learnt from old weather fables, as we do not take the old rhymes and sayings literally. Our ancestors used them to pass on knowledge down the generations in an easily memorable form, at a time when ordinary folk could neither read nor write. |
| What Swithin really tells us is that our weather often becomes locked into a particular pattern in high summer, only changing when autumnal influences begin to appear in late-August. Modern climatologists would largely agree with that. | What Swithin really tells us is that our weather often becomes locked into a particular pattern in high summer, only changing when autumnal influences begin to appear in late-August. Modern climatologists would largely agree with that. |
| Add your comments on this story, using the form below. | Add your comments on this story, using the form below. |
| The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions | The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions |