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As Temperatures Rise, ‘This Is a Preview.’ Will the Warning Be Heard? As Temperatures Rise, ‘This Is a Preview.’ Will the Warning Be Heard?
(about 20 hours later)
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It is very, very hot in London. As I wrote this column on Tuesday, the temperature had climbed to the hottest ever recorded in England, exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, or about 104 Fahrenheit, for the first time.It is very, very hot in London. As I wrote this column on Tuesday, the temperature had climbed to the hottest ever recorded in England, exceeding 40 degrees Celsius, or about 104 Fahrenheit, for the first time.
Hot weather is a novelty in Britain, associated with summer vacations, drinks by swimming pools and exotic foreign locales, so many people here initially greeted the news of the heat wave with excitement. Others, taking more of a “mad dogs and Englishmen” approach, derided those worried about the heat as “snowflakes.”Hot weather is a novelty in Britain, associated with summer vacations, drinks by swimming pools and exotic foreign locales, so many people here initially greeted the news of the heat wave with excitement. Others, taking more of a “mad dogs and Englishmen” approach, derided those worried about the heat as “snowflakes.”
As the government declared a national emergency, its warnings took on the tenor of the placards that zoos post to warn people not to climb into cages to hug the pandas. “In this country, we’re used to treating a hot spell as a chance to go and play in the sun. This is not that sort of weather,” Penny Endersby, chief executive of the Met Office, the national weather service, said in a statement. “Nothing in our life experiences has led us to know what to expect.”As the government declared a national emergency, its warnings took on the tenor of the placards that zoos post to warn people not to climb into cages to hug the pandas. “In this country, we’re used to treating a hot spell as a chance to go and play in the sun. This is not that sort of weather,” Penny Endersby, chief executive of the Met Office, the national weather service, said in a statement. “Nothing in our life experiences has led us to know what to expect.”
They soon found out. By early Monday, trains had slowed to a crawl out of fears that tracks might buckle. Without air-conditioning, which is rare here, schools and homes soon reached unbearable temperatures. By that evening, many trains had been canceled entirely, snarling transport across the country.They soon found out. By early Monday, trains had slowed to a crawl out of fears that tracks might buckle. Without air-conditioning, which is rare here, schools and homes soon reached unbearable temperatures. By that evening, many trains had been canceled entirely, snarling transport across the country.
Yesterday, after a sweltering night, breezes brought no relief. The air had the hot-breath feeling that I remember from the worst heat waves of my Midwestern childhood, except without the air-conditioning and plentiful local swimming pools that had made those summers bearable. By late afternoon, so many parts of the city had caught fire that the London fire brigade declared a “major incident.” On my local WhatsApp group, neighbors swapped photos of nearby smoke and flames, then tips about what documents to gather in case our area needed to evacuate.Yesterday, after a sweltering night, breezes brought no relief. The air had the hot-breath feeling that I remember from the worst heat waves of my Midwestern childhood, except without the air-conditioning and plentiful local swimming pools that had made those summers bearable. By late afternoon, so many parts of the city had caught fire that the London fire brigade declared a “major incident.” On my local WhatsApp group, neighbors swapped photos of nearby smoke and flames, then tips about what documents to gather in case our area needed to evacuate.
Across the English Channel in Europe, things were even more dire. Temperatures reached 47 Celsius, about 116 Fahrenheit, in Portugal. As the continent baked, wildfires raged in France, Greece, Portugal and Spain.Across the English Channel in Europe, things were even more dire. Temperatures reached 47 Celsius, about 116 Fahrenheit, in Portugal. As the continent baked, wildfires raged in France, Greece, Portugal and Spain.
Identifying the precise cause of an extreme weather event is difficult. But scientists say that climate change has played a role in the heat wave, in part because the warming planet means that the temperatures were beginning from a higher baseline. “Without climate change, the likelihood of seeing 40 degrees in London would have been so small that it would basically be equivalent to statistically impossible,” Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, told me.Identifying the precise cause of an extreme weather event is difficult. But scientists say that climate change has played a role in the heat wave, in part because the warming planet means that the temperatures were beginning from a higher baseline. “Without climate change, the likelihood of seeing 40 degrees in London would have been so small that it would basically be equivalent to statistically impossible,” Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, told me.
Now, scientists and climate policy researchers are wondering whether the heat wave could bring a shift in the public understanding of climate change.Now, scientists and climate policy researchers are wondering whether the heat wave could bring a shift in the public understanding of climate change.
“One of the big problems that we still have with climate change is that it’s always talked about as if it’s something happening in the future, to someone else,” Otto said. “And for Europeans, ‘someone else’ is the Global South.”“One of the big problems that we still have with climate change is that it’s always talked about as if it’s something happening in the future, to someone else,” Otto said. “And for Europeans, ‘someone else’ is the Global South.”
But it remains an open question whether extreme weather events like this month’s heat wave and fires will change that mind-set.But it remains an open question whether extreme weather events like this month’s heat wave and fires will change that mind-set.
“For Germany, I think last year’s floods were a bit of a wake-up call, insofar as, ‘Oh, weather can actually be deadly in Germany,’” Otto said. But she expressed skepticism that the heat wave would have a similar effect. “People don’t die dropping dead in the street in heat waves. People die quietly, in their poorly insulated homes.” And, she noted, those who do tend to be older adults and the poor and sick — groups for whom the impact of heat can be easier to dismiss. “It’s the same people who already die of air pollution, and nobody cares,” she said.“For Germany, I think last year’s floods were a bit of a wake-up call, insofar as, ‘Oh, weather can actually be deadly in Germany,’” Otto said. But she expressed skepticism that the heat wave would have a similar effect. “People don’t die dropping dead in the street in heat waves. People die quietly, in their poorly insulated homes.” And, she noted, those who do tend to be older adults and the poor and sick — groups for whom the impact of heat can be easier to dismiss. “It’s the same people who already die of air pollution, and nobody cares,” she said.
Anna Walnycki, a researcher on adaptation to climate change at the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development, was more hopeful about extreme weather’s ability to draw attention to the immediate human cost of climate change.Anna Walnycki, a researcher on adaptation to climate change at the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development, was more hopeful about extreme weather’s ability to draw attention to the immediate human cost of climate change.
“These few days have actually allowed people to see, you know, their gran suffering in the heat, the N.H.S. is actually buckling under the strain of heat,” she said, referring to Britain’s National Health Service. By shifting away from abstract discussions of net carbon emissions toward local impacts with “a human face,” she added, the heat wave could make a difference to public perceptions of how much countries like Britain stand to lose from a changing climate — and how quickly that might occur.“These few days have actually allowed people to see, you know, their gran suffering in the heat, the N.H.S. is actually buckling under the strain of heat,” she said, referring to Britain’s National Health Service. By shifting away from abstract discussions of net carbon emissions toward local impacts with “a human face,” she added, the heat wave could make a difference to public perceptions of how much countries like Britain stand to lose from a changing climate — and how quickly that might occur.
It is true, of course, that poorer countries in the Global South, and the poorest people within them, will bear the brunt of climate change. In May, I was in India toward the end of its own record-breaking heat wave, when temperatures climbed far higher than in Europe. The effect on people’s livelihoods and survival was far more extreme than anything happening here.It is true, of course, that poorer countries in the Global South, and the poorest people within them, will bear the brunt of climate change. In May, I was in India toward the end of its own record-breaking heat wave, when temperatures climbed far higher than in Europe. The effect on people’s livelihoods and survival was far more extreme than anything happening here.
And even within the same city, temperatures can discriminate between rich and poor: Walnycki, whose research focuses primarily on Latin America and Africa, told me that poorer neighborhoods and informal settlements can become “heat islands” that reach 10 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than nearby leafy suburbs because of the warming effect of paved ground, scarce green space and limited shade.And even within the same city, temperatures can discriminate between rich and poor: Walnycki, whose research focuses primarily on Latin America and Africa, told me that poorer neighborhoods and informal settlements can become “heat islands” that reach 10 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than nearby leafy suburbs because of the warming effect of paved ground, scarce green space and limited shade.
But the focus on climate change’s effects on poorer countries and people can have the effect of obscuring its effects on richer ones. The heat wave in South Asia, for instance, affected the wheat harvest, which in turn contributed to higher global food prices at a time when they were already under pressure from the war in Ukraine, Otto said.But the focus on climate change’s effects on poorer countries and people can have the effect of obscuring its effects on richer ones. The heat wave in South Asia, for instance, affected the wheat harvest, which in turn contributed to higher global food prices at a time when they were already under pressure from the war in Ukraine, Otto said.
In a world linked by global trade, adaptations to climate change have global impact. But they must be local in design, Chandni Singh, a senior researcher at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements who studies human adaptation to climate change, told me.In a world linked by global trade, adaptations to climate change have global impact. But they must be local in design, Chandni Singh, a senior researcher at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements who studies human adaptation to climate change, told me.
“Adaptation to heat in the U.K. should and will look very different to adapting to heat in India,” Singh said. “Across the world (whether in a heat-acclimatized city like Delhi or a relative stranger to heat like London), we know that adapting to heat needs built infrastructure that does not trap heat, parks and green spaces that cool local heat islands, and behavioral shifts to reduce impacts and prepare better.”“Adaptation to heat in the U.K. should and will look very different to adapting to heat in India,” Singh said. “Across the world (whether in a heat-acclimatized city like Delhi or a relative stranger to heat like London), we know that adapting to heat needs built infrastructure that does not trap heat, parks and green spaces that cool local heat islands, and behavioral shifts to reduce impacts and prepare better.”
“On a planet afflicted with climate change, heat is coming for everyone,” Singh wrote in a guest essay in May in The Times. This week, she happened to be in Britain for a meeting, where she felt those words coming true, she told me.“On a planet afflicted with climate change, heat is coming for everyone,” Singh wrote in a guest essay in May in The Times. This week, she happened to be in Britain for a meeting, where she felt those words coming true, she told me.
“This is a preview, a trailer of what countries and places under a heating planet look like.”“This is a preview, a trailer of what countries and places under a heating planet look like.”
Audio produced by Parin Behrooz.