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Worst of the recession 'is over' Worst of the recession 'is over'
(9 minutes later)
The worst of the UK's recession is over, according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) business group, but talk of a recovery is premature.The worst of the UK's recession is over, according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) business group, but talk of a recovery is premature.
Its report, based on a survey of 5,600 companies, found there had been "welcome progress" in confidence levels between April and June.Its report, based on a survey of 5,600 companies, found there had been "welcome progress" in confidence levels between April and June.
But the BCC is still predicting that unemployment will reach 3.2 million by the middle of 2010.But the BCC is still predicting that unemployment will reach 3.2 million by the middle of 2010.
It warned that the increase in confidence was fragile.It warned that the increase in confidence was fragile.
The manufacturing and service sectors both recorded improvements in the second quarter of 2009. Although manufacturing saw the greatest progress, the sector still remains in "a worse condition overall", the BCC said.The manufacturing and service sectors both recorded improvements in the second quarter of 2009. Although manufacturing saw the greatest progress, the sector still remains in "a worse condition overall", the BCC said.
Nurture confidenceNurture confidence
Businesses need to know they will be given the freedom and flexibility to drive the UK out of recession and into a sustainable recovery David Frost, BCC director general
Last week, the Office for National Statistics sharply revised its GDP data for the UK, saying the economy shrank by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2009, compared with its earlier estimate of a contraction of 1.9%. With these heavy revisions, the BCC said it was far too early to say that recovery is secure.Last week, the Office for National Statistics sharply revised its GDP data for the UK, saying the economy shrank by 2.4% in the first quarter of 2009, compared with its earlier estimate of a contraction of 1.9%. With these heavy revisions, the BCC said it was far too early to say that recovery is secure.
David Frost, British Chamber of Commerce: "A marked upturn in confidence"
It said that without continued focus on limiting the impact of the recession, there was still a risk that the economy could "drop off suddenly" and the UK could be heading towards a "W-shaped" recession.It said that without continued focus on limiting the impact of the recession, there was still a risk that the economy could "drop off suddenly" and the UK could be heading towards a "W-shaped" recession.
"It is absolutely vital that the improvement in business confidence is nurtured," said BCC director general David Frost."It is absolutely vital that the improvement in business confidence is nurtured," said BCC director general David Frost.
"Our economy is based on confidence, and wealth-creating businesses need to know they will be given the freedom and flexibility to drive the UK out of recession and into a sustainable recovery.""Our economy is based on confidence, and wealth-creating businesses need to know they will be given the freedom and flexibility to drive the UK out of recession and into a sustainable recovery."
He added that the proposed increase in National Insurance contributions in 2011 was a "tax on jobs" which should be scrapped.He added that the proposed increase in National Insurance contributions in 2011 was a "tax on jobs" which should be scrapped.
He also called for banks to continue lending and said that businesses expect the government to sort out "the appalling state of the public finances".He also called for banks to continue lending and said that businesses expect the government to sort out "the appalling state of the public finances".