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Fears of Gridlock in France After Macron Is Left With Fragmented Parliament A Fragmented Parliament Brings Macron Back Down to Earth
(about 5 hours later)
PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron’s ability to govern effectively was in question on Monday after he lost his absolute majority in the lower house of Parliament in France, with opposition groups threatening to block his legislative agenda and openly calling for the resignation of his prime minister. PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron earned the nickname Jupiter in his first term for his top-down governing style, using the full powers of France’s executive branch and largely ignoring Parliament.
After nationwide voting on Sunday, Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition finished first overall, with 245 seats, but it fell far short of the absolute majority that it enjoyed in the 577-seat National Assembly during his first term, fueling fears of political gridlock. But big gains by opposition groups in Sunday’s legislative elections are likely to force Mr. Macron to regularly seek compromise in his second term, making it more difficult to push his domestic agenda through a reinvigorated lower house and deeply changing a political landscape dominated by the presidency for the past two decades.
“Ungovernable!” read the front page of Le Parisien, a daily newspaper. Having lost an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the lower and more powerful house of Parliament, Mr. Macron — who was often referred to as a “Republican monarch” — must now cajole his coalition partners and win over opposition lawmakers, particularly in the center-right.
Much was still uncertain on Monday after the elections, which produced a complex and fragmented political landscape with three main opposition groups: a left-wing alliance, the far right, and mainstream conservatives. All won enough seats to potentially hamstring Mr. Macron’s legislative agenda, but they are also deeply opposed to each other in various ways, limiting the prospect of a broad, tenable anti-Macron coalition. He will also face stiff challenges from resurgent leftist and far-right forces that have vowed to block his legislative agenda, fueling fears of prolonged political obstruction.
Still, this much was clear: After five years of relatively smooth sailing in a National Assembly dominated by his party and its allies, Mr. Macron’s second-term agenda is in for a rough ride. Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition finished first overall in nationwide voting on Sunday, with 245 seats, but it fell far short of the absolute majority that it enjoyed in the 577-seat National Assembly during his first term.
“My biggest fear is that the country will be blocked,” Olivia Grégoire, a spokeswoman for Mr. Macron’s government, told France Inter radio on Monday. She said that a coming bill to help French households deal with rising inflation was a top priority and would be a first test of the weakened majority’s ability to build consensus. The results came two months after Mr. Macron was re-elected to a second term in a runoff against the far-right leader, Marine Le Pen. Many voters, especially on the left, supported Mr. Macron simply as a way to block Ms. Le Pen from power.
Mr. Macron must now contend with parliamentary constraints that he had mostly been able to circumvent during his first term. His party will not be able to readily dismiss opposition amendments, for instance, and legislative debates could be much harsher. But he did little in recent weeks to woo them, appearing disengaged from the legislative campaign and even going to Eastern Europe just days before the parliamentary vote to visit French troops and express support for Ukraine.
Traditionally, in legislative elections held soon after the presidential ballot, voters have given the newly elected president a political mandate by giving them a strong majority in the National Assembly.
But the message delivered by voters on Sunday was hardly an endorsement of Mr. Macron.
Instead, a left-wing alliance, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the hard-left France Unbowed party, came in second place, with 131 seats. And Ms. Le Pen’s far-right National Rally took a record number of seats for the party, 89, in contrast to the handful it held previously.
“Emmanuel Macron’s bet, which was to coast along with the institutional logic and tell himself that the French would give the elected president a majority, has failed,” said Gilles Ivaldi, of the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po in Paris.
Much was still uncertain after the elections, which produced a complex and fragmented political landscape. “My biggest fear is that the country will be blocked,” Olivia Grégoire, a spokeswoman for Mr. Macron’s government, told France Inter radio on Monday.
At the same time, the left and the far-right share little in common, making a sustained, united anti-Macron front all but impossible. There are deep fissures even among the left-wing parties that make up Mr. Mélenchon’s alliance, over issues like France’s nuclear policy or its place in the European Union, that could prevent coordinated moves.
Those tensions were already on display on Monday, after the other parties in the alliance — the Socialists, Greens and Communists — rejected Mr. Mélenchon’s call to sit as one group in the lower house.
Mr. Macron must now contend with parliamentary constraints that he had mostly been able to circumvent during his first term. His party will not be able to readily dismiss opposition amendments, and legislative debates could be much harsher.
“It’s like going from a very strong presidential regime to a parliamentary regime,” said Chloé Morin, a political scientist at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, a progressive think tank. “It moves the center of power to the National Assembly.”“It’s like going from a very strong presidential regime to a parliamentary regime,” said Chloé Morin, a political scientist at the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, a progressive think tank. “It moves the center of power to the National Assembly.”
But, she added, unlike other European nations, where political parties are used to hammering out coalitions and compromises, that “is neither the culture of politicians nor of the French people.” During Mr. Macron’s first term, the lower house of Parliament was widely considered a rubber-stamp of the presidency, as the president and a small circle of advisers drove France’s political agenda.
“We have a culture of verticality,” she said, with extensive presidential powers, and after five years of Mr. Macron’s top-down governing style, none of his opponents appeared inclined to work with him. The left-wing coalition and the National Rally both have enough lawmakers to bring a vote of no confidence, but they would need to muster an absolute majority to bring down the government, which seems unlikely. Still, the potential for gridlock in the National Assembly could prompt Mr. Macron to dissolve the body and call new parliamentary elections next year.
Instead, Ms. Morin predicted months of gridlock in the National Assembly, which could prompt Mr. Macron to dissolve the body and call new parliamentary elections some time next year. France’s presidents can rule by decree on some issues, and they have a relatively free rein to conduct foreign policy. But major domestic overhauls promised by Mr. Macron during his re-election campaign require the approval of Parliament, such as his contentious plans to raise the legal age of retirement to 65, from 62.
France’s presidents can rule by decree on some issues, and they have a relatively free rein to conduct foreign policy. But major domestic overhauls promised by Mr. Macron during his re-election campaign this year require a bill in Parliament, such as his contentious plans to raise the legal age of retirement to 65, from 62, which Mr. Macron had vowed to get done by the summer of 2023. Mr. Macron will most likely be forced to seek a coalition or build short-term alliances with opposition forces, but none of them seem inclined to help him.
The fate of such bills is now in jeopardy. Mr. Macron will most likely be forced to seek a coalition or build short-term alliances with opposition forces if he wants to push through legislation. A natural fit would be Les Républicains, the mainstream conservative party, which, on paper at least, could back some of Mr. Macron’s pro-business policies. “It’s not completely blocked, it’s a suspended Parliament,” said Vincent Martigny, a professor of political science at the University of Nice, adding that Les Républicains, the mainstream conservatives, could become kingmakers to pass bills, as they are most likely, on paper at least, to support Mr. Macron’s pro-business policies.
“It’s not completely blocked, it’s a suspended Parliament,” said Vincent Martigny, a professor of political science at the University of Nice, adding that Mr. Macron “is now completely in the hands of Les Républicains.” But leaders from the conservative party, some of them worried that a long-term coalition with Mr. Macron could anger their base, have already ruled out a partnership.
But leaders from Les Républicains, some of whom are worried that a long-term coalition with Mr. Macron would incur the anger of their political base, have already ruled out a partnership. “We are in the opposition,” Christian Jacob, the party’s president, told reporters on Monday, adding that “there is no question of a pact, coalition or agreement of any kind.”
“We campaigned in the opposition, we are in the opposition and we will remain in the opposition,” Christian Jacob, the party’s president, said on Sunday night. “Things are very clear,” he added. The two largest opposition forces in Parliament, the broad coalition of left-wing parties, and Ms. Le Pen’s far-right party, have vowed to challenge Mr. Macron relentlessly. Some quickly called for the resignation of Élisabeth Borne, the prime minister appointed by Mr. Macron last month.
The two largest opposition forces in Parliament — a broad coalition of left-wing parties, which secured 131 seats; and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which took 89 — have all but promised to challenge Mr. Macron’s government relentlessly. “The government as formed by Emmanuel Macron cannot continue to govern as if nothing had happened,” Manuel Bompard, a member of France Unbowed — the biggest force in the left-wing coalition with 72 seats — told the French channel BFMTV.
Representatives from both forces wasted no time on Monday as they called for the resignation of Élisabeth Borne, the prime minister appointed by Mr. Macron last month. It was unclear what Mr. Macron, who has not said anything publicly about the results, will do. He had vowed that ministers who lost their parliamentary races would have to quit; three fall into that category. The president, who lost key allies in the National Assembly, could also decide to address voter frustrations by reshuffling his cabinet more extensively.
“The government as formed by Emmanuel Macron cannot continue to govern as if nothing had happened,” Manuel Bompard, a member of the hard-left France Unbowed party, told the French channel BFMTV on Monday. With 72 seats, France Unbowed, under its leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is the biggest force in the left-wing coalition. Opposition forces are now expected to fill strategic positions in the lower house and to control key committees, such as the powerful finance committee that oversees the state budget.
French prime ministers traditionally resign even after victorious parliamentary elections, only to be immediately reappointed by the president and tasked with tweaking the existing cabinet at the margins.
It was unclear what Mr. Macron, who has not yet said anything publicly about the results, would do in the short term. He had vowed that ministers who lost their parliamentary races would have to quit; three fall into that category and will need to be replaced, if Mr. Macron follows through. The president could decide to address voter frustrations by reshuffling his cabinet more extensively.
Opposition forces are now expected to control key committees, such as the powerful finance committee that oversees the state budget, and to fill strategic positions in the National Assembly.
“They can do everything that Emmanuel Macron doesn’t like, that is, force his hand on some amendments, force him into debates,” Mr. Martigny said.“They can do everything that Emmanuel Macron doesn’t like, that is, force his hand on some amendments, force him into debates,” Mr. Martigny said.
Mr. Macron also lost key allies who would have helped him navigate the National Assembly’s newly treacherous waters and manage its reinvigorated opposition. Richard Ferrand, the president of the lower house, and Christophe Castaner, who was one of Mr. Macron’s top lawmakers there, both lost their seats. Ms. Le Pen was handily re-elected to her own seat alongside a record number of far-right lawmakers, who are now about 11 times as numerous as they were during Mr. Macron’s previous term.
The left-wing coalition and the National Rally both have enough lawmakers to bring a vote of no confidence, but they would need to muster an absolute majority in Parliament to bring down the government, which seems unlikely at the moment.
“Yes, we are asking for everything that an opposition group is entitled to, the finance committee of course, the vice presidency, of course,” Ms. Le Pen told reporters on Monday. “Will Emmanuel Macron be able to do what he wants? No, and so much the better.”“Yes, we are asking for everything that an opposition group is entitled to, the finance committee of course, the vice presidency, of course,” Ms. Le Pen told reporters on Monday. “Will Emmanuel Macron be able to do what he wants? No, and so much the better.”
Ms. Le Pen, who was handily re-elected to her own seat in the National Assembly, managed to bring with her a record number of lawmakers, who are now about 10 times as numerous as they were during Mr. Macron’s previous term. The National Rally can now form what is known as a parliamentary group, giving it more speaking time and other powers. It will also bring a financial windfall to a party that has long been indebted, thanks to increased public funding based on its election results.
That will enable the party to officially form what is known as a parliamentary group, giving the National Rally more speaking time, as well as specific legislative powers such as the ability to create special committees, further anchoring the party in the political mainstream. The party is expected to receive almost 10 million euros, about $10.5 million, in public funding every year, compared to around €5 million during the previous term. That could be enough to finally pay off the remainder of a €9.6 million loan the National Rally contracted with a Russian bank in 2014, prompting accusations that it is too close to the Kremlin.
French political parties receive public funding based on factors that include their election results and their number of seats in Parliament, meaning that the National Rally’s spectacular surge will also bring a welcome financial windfall to a party that has long been indebted. Mr. Ivaldi said the far-right’s results did not come as a complete shock, given Ms. Le Pen’s strong showing in the presidential election and her ability to attract anti-Macron voters.
The party is expected to receive almost 10 million euros, about $10.5 million, in public funding every year, compared to around €5 million during the previous term. That could be enough to finally pay off the €9.6 million that remains of a loan the National Rally contracted with a Russian bank in 2014, which has prompted accusations of the party’s having close ties to the Kremlin. But the National Rally has usually struggled with the legislative elections. In 2017, it reached 120 runoffs but got less than 10 seats, he noted. In the past, some voters typically rallied behind any party but the far-right to eliminate candidates from Ms. Le Pen’s party.
Analysts said the surge of the far right was a failure for Mr. Macron, who five years ago began his first term by pledging to unite the French so that there would be “no reason at all to vote for the extremes.” On Sunday, though, the traditional opposition of voters to far-right runoff candidates appeared to have crumbled, after years of Ms. Le Pen’s efforts to normalize the party, Mr. Ivaldi said.
But Ms. Morin and Mr. Martigny also noted that the National Assembly now offered a more accurate photograph of the French political landscape, including with the arrival of more working-class lawmakers. “It’s a party that is now well-anchored in the political landscape,” he said.
“That’s rather good news,” Mr. Martigny said. “It will force changes in a political culture that was not particularly favorable to parliamentary debates.”