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US midterm elections - a simple guide What are the US midterms? A simple guide
(5 months later)
Believe it or not, just two years after Joe Biden was voted into the White House, election season has arrived in the US again. The United States holds its midterm elections on 8 November 2022. The outcome will have a major impact on the remaining two years of Joe Biden's presidency, and beyond.
Contests have begun, to determine the candidates who will stand for office across the country on 8 November, during the midterm elections - so called because they fall halfway through a president's term - take place every four years. What are the midterms and who's being elected?
Here is a simple guide to what's happening at the ballot box as these primary contests get underway before the autumn election. These elections are for Congress, which is made up of two parts - the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Who is being elected? These votes are held every two years and when they fall in the middle of the president's four-year term of office, they are called the midterms.
Americans are represented in government by 535 lawmakers, known as members of Congress. Congress makes nationwide laws. The House decides which laws are voted on while the Senate can block or approve them, confirm appointments made by the president and, more rarely, conduct any investigations against him.
Congress is made up of two chambers - the Senate and the House of Representatives. The two work together to make laws. Each state has two senators, who sit for six-year terms. Representatives serve for two years, and represent smaller districts.
The Senate is the 100-strong upper chamber. Each US state - regardless of size - sends two representatives. These senators are elected for six-year terms. Every two years a third of the Senate faces re-election. All the seats in the House of Representatives are up for election in November, alongside one-third of the Senate.
The House of Representatives (often referred to as "the House") has 435 members. Each one represents a particular district in their state and serves a two year term. All seats are up for election. Several major states also have elections for their governor and local officials.
What is at stake? Who might win?
Currently, all members of Congress align with the Democratic Party or the Republican Party. The Democratic Party has held the majority in both the House and the Senate for the past two years. That's been helpful for President Joe Biden to pass the laws he wanted.
The Democrats control both chambers, but by very slim majorities. But the Democrats hold that power over the Republicans by very narrow margins, which makes for a tight contest. Polling suggests the Republicans might take the House but the Democrats could hold on to the Senate.
So far, this has made it easier for President Biden, a Democrat, to get things done. Of the 435 seats in the House, most are safely held by either party, with just 30 currently a toss-up between the two. Suburban areas around cities in states like Pennsylvania, California, Ohio and North Carolina will be key.
But if the Republican Party gains control of either or both chambers, it will have the power to thwart the president's plans. The US Capitol holds both chambers, House and Senate
Republicans need to win five extra seats to take back the majority in the House this November. In the Senate, it now looks like four of the 35 seats being contested realistically could go either way. The pivotal races here are in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
It is even closer in the Senate, where the seats are evenly split between both parties at present. At present, the Democrats have control because Vice President Kamala Harris has the casting vote in any tie. What are the big issues?
The Republicans only need to win one extra seat to gain control in November. At the start of 2022, it looked like the biggest issues were going to be immigration, crime and the cost of living, which are vote-winners for conservative Republicans.
Primary elections to determine who will contest the general election for each party will take place around the country between May and September. That changed in June when the US Supreme Court overturned national abortion protections, giving a boost to the Democrats, who support women having the right to choose and have made that central to many campaigns.
A few races to watch But as the immediate impact of that decision fades, Republicans are trying to turn the focus back to inflation, immigration and violent crime.
Mehmet Oz, a TV personality known as Dr Oz, hopes to become the Republican senator for Pennsylvania What effect will the results have?
Republican JD Vance, the author of the bestselling book, Hillbilly Elegy, will face off against a 2020 presidential candidate in Ohio Midterms often serve as a verdict on how the president is doing, and the party that holds the White House tends to lose seats.
Former Nasa astronaut and US Navy captain Mark Kelly is seeking to extend his term in the Arizona senate seat he won from the Republicans in 2020 That's a worry for President Biden, whose approval rating among voters has been running at less than 50% since last August.
So who is going to win? If the Democrats hang on, President Biden will be able to keep going with his plans on climate change, to expand government-run healthcare programmes, protect abortion rights and tighten gun control.
Historically, the party that holds the White House has tended to suffer losses in the midterms. If the Republicans take control of either chamber, they will be able to effectively grind that agenda to a halt.
Signs point to this being a so-called "wave election" in which the Republicans make major seat gains. They will also be able to control investigatory committees, so they could end the inquiry into the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol by supporters of former President Donald Trump - although its work is set to finish by the end of the year.
President Biden also happens to be unpopular right now, with an approval rating stuck at less than 50% since last August. They might also launch new investigations into more conservative-interest topics - like the Chinese business dealings of Joe Biden's son or the sudden withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
That is likely to undermine support for Democratic candidates. It would be harder for Mr Biden to make new appointments, including to the US Supreme Court. Republican dominance would also hamper his foreign policy - particularly help for Ukraine, as it battles Russian invasion.
The Capitol Building in Washington C is home to both the Senate and the House of Representatives In return, President Biden could wield his veto pen and block conservative laws on abortion, immigration and taxes.
What does it all mean for President Biden? The result? Gridlock until the next presidential and congressional elections.
Even now Mr Biden typically requires every Democrat lawmaker to back any given bill - and even that is often not enough. How does this shape the 2024 presidential race?
Conservative Democrats - not Republicans - have blocked several major proposals, including "Build Back Better", the president's trillion-dollar package for social programmes and climate action. The midterms could give us a clue as to who might be in the running to be the Republican presidential candidate for 2024.
A heavy defeat in the midterms will make it even harder for the president to introduce new laws. If candidates backed by Mr Trump do badly, he's less likely to get backing from the Republican party to run for president again. In Florida and Texas, Republican governors Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott hope re-election will spur them on to a bid for the White House.
Several Republicans have also expressed interest in taking a closer look at the the Biden administration's affairs. If the Democrats can hold on to power in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that should give them some confidence as they build their 2024 campaign to get President Biden re-elected.
That could mean opening investigations into everything from the bungled troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, to the foreign dealings of the president's scandal-plagued son Hunter Biden.
Since the 6 January riots at the US Capitol, trust between the two parties has declined sharply.
Public health measures, particularly mask rules, have further deepened these divisions.
Divided control of Washington is likely to mean more drama and hostility.
And what happens next?
Once the midterms election ends, all eyes will turn to the 2024 presidential election.
It could be a repeat of 2020 - both Presidents Biden and Trump say they plan to run again.
Could 2024 see a Biden-Trump re-run?
But various first-time contenders are expected to throw their hats in the ring too.
As well as the elections for Congress on 8 November, 36 out of 50 state governors are up for election. Of those 36, 20 are Republican.
When presidential campaigns get under way, governors play an outsized role supporting their party's candidates and overseeing their state's elections.
A divided Washington and a crop of new governors could have a major effect on presidential campaigning in 2023 and 2024.