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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| Scots 'want an independence vote' | Scots 'want an independence vote' |
| (about 6 hours later) | |
| An opinion poll commissioned by BBC Scotland has shown a clear majority (58%) of Scots want a referendum on independence next year. | An opinion poll commissioned by BBC Scotland has shown a clear majority (58%) of Scots want a referendum on independence next year. |
| The poll also suggests support for the Union outstrips that for independence from the UK. | The poll also suggests support for the Union outstrips that for independence from the UK. |
| However, the poll found the percentage of people saying they support independence varies widely depending on how the question is phrased. | However, the poll found the percentage of people saying they support independence varies widely depending on how the question is phrased. |
| The Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum on the issue in 2010. | The Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum on the issue in 2010. |
| The poll of 1,010 people, carried out between 22 and 24 June by ICM, found 58% of respondents were in favour of the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent, with only 37% against. | The poll of 1,010 people, carried out between 22 and 24 June by ICM, found 58% of respondents were in favour of the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent, with only 37% against. |
| When asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", 38% responded that they believed Scotland should become an independent country, with 54% saying they did not believe it should become independent. | When asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", 38% responded that they believed Scotland should become an independent country, with 54% saying they did not believe it should become independent. |
| However, the pollsters also asked a separate question asking whether people agreed or disagreed that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state" - the preferred wording of the Scottish Government for a future referendum. | However, the pollsters also asked a separate question asking whether people agreed or disagreed that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state" - the preferred wording of the Scottish Government for a future referendum. |
| In this case, 42% agreed with the statement, with 50% opposed.The poll also asked which of a range of scenarios were closest to people's views of how Scotland should be governed. | In this case, 42% agreed with the statement, with 50% opposed.The poll also asked which of a range of scenarios were closest to people's views of how Scotland should be governed. |
| Under this wording, only 28% backed the option of Scotland becoming independent of the rest of the UK, with 47% in favour of remaining in the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make some decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland. | Under this wording, only 28% backed the option of Scotland becoming independent of the rest of the UK, with 47% in favour of remaining in the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make some decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland. |
| I would favour a referendum only with a straight question, a straight yes/no question. That's not on offer - that is not what Alex Salmond is offering Iain GrayScottish Labour leader | I would favour a referendum only with a straight question, a straight yes/no question. That's not on offer - that is not what Alex Salmond is offering Iain GrayScottish Labour leader |
| A further 22% said Scotland should remain part of the UK, with decisions about the level of taxation and spending in Scotland made by the UK Government. | A further 22% said Scotland should remain part of the UK, with decisions about the level of taxation and spending in Scotland made by the UK Government. |
| Finally, respondents were asked whether they believed it was likely or unlikely Scotland would become completely independent from the UK within the next 20 years. | Finally, respondents were asked whether they believed it was likely or unlikely Scotland would become completely independent from the UK within the next 20 years. |
| The results showed that 10% thought it was very likely and 28% believed it was quite likely. | The results showed that 10% thought it was very likely and 28% believed it was quite likely. |
| However, a larger percentage were not so sure, with 34% responding that it was quite unlikely and 24% believing independence was very unlikely. | However, a larger percentage were not so sure, with 34% responding that it was quite unlikely and 24% believing independence was very unlikely. |
| Independence referendum | Independence referendum |
| The poll also suggested that 58% of Scots wanted a referendum on independence. | The poll also suggested that 58% of Scots wanted a referendum on independence. |
| Labour's Scottish leader Ian Gray told BBC Scotland that he remained opposed to the SNP's plans to hold a referendum next year. | Labour's Scottish leader Ian Gray told BBC Scotland that he remained opposed to the SNP's plans to hold a referendum next year. |
| He added: "I would favour a referendum only with a straight question, a straight yes/no question. That's not on offer - that is not what Alex Salmond is offering. | He added: "I would favour a referendum only with a straight question, a straight yes/no question. That's not on offer - that is not what Alex Salmond is offering. |
| "What he is offering is a rigged question. So that referendum is not on offer." | "What he is offering is a rigged question. So that referendum is not on offer." |
| The Scottish Government's constitution minister Mike Russell told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme that the nationalists were winning the argument. | The Scottish Government's constitution minister Mike Russell told BBC Radio's Good Morning Scotland programme that the nationalists were winning the argument. |
| He said: "We have done as we said at the beginning - we would have the national conversation and we would hold this referendum in 2010. | He said: "We have done as we said at the beginning - we would have the national conversation and we would hold this referendum in 2010. |
| "I was appointed as minister for the constitution in February. That remains our aim and indeed we've got a big constitution meeting in Dundee today. | "I was appointed as minister for the constitution in February. That remains our aim and indeed we've got a big constitution meeting in Dundee today. |
| "So we're taking this issue forward in exactly the way we said we would and you can't criticise us for sticking to what we said we'd do." | "So we're taking this issue forward in exactly the way we said we would and you can't criticise us for sticking to what we said we'd do." |
| But Scottish Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott said he did not think people "were actually that interested" in the constitutional debate. | |
| He added: "What I think they are interested in is the jobs in our economy and the fact that we are still in recession - those are the issues politicians should be focusing on, and absolutely should stop talking endlessly that people aren't interested in." | |
| Annabel Goldie, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, said: "Clearly Alex Salmond's gripe and grudge politics with Westminster is not taking a trick with the Scottish populous. | |
| "The poll shows support for devolution has never been higher, so people want a strong Scotland within a strong United Kingdom." | |
| 'Increasingly attractive' | 'Increasingly attractive' |
| Politics professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the findings suggested that 10 years of devolution - including two years of SNP government - had done little to whet Scots' appetite for independence. | Politics professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the findings suggested that 10 years of devolution - including two years of SNP government - had done little to whet Scots' appetite for independence. |
| "The straightforward question on whether people want independence or not has been asked many times by ICM over the past 10 years. | "The straightforward question on whether people want independence or not has been asked many times by ICM over the past 10 years. |
| "At 37%, those saying they backed independence has never been lower, while at 54% the proportion saying they are against has never been higher. | "At 37%, those saying they backed independence has never been lower, while at 54% the proportion saying they are against has never been higher. |
| "The option of proposing a multi-option referendum rather than a simple vote on independence must be beginning to look increasingly attractive to the SNP government. | "The option of proposing a multi-option referendum rather than a simple vote on independence must be beginning to look increasingly attractive to the SNP government. |
| "It seems as though a third option of increasing the tax powers of the Scottish parliament, but remaining part of the Union would be by far the most popular option." | "It seems as though a third option of increasing the tax powers of the Scottish parliament, but remaining part of the Union would be by far the most popular option." |