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| Scots 'want an independence vote' | Scots 'want an independence vote' |
| (about 8 hours later) | |
| An opinion poll commissioned by BBC Scotland has shown a clear majority (58%) of Scots want a referendum on independence next year. | An opinion poll commissioned by BBC Scotland has shown a clear majority (58%) of Scots want a referendum on independence next year. |
| The poll also suggests support for the Union outstrips that for independence from the UK. | The poll also suggests support for the Union outstrips that for independence from the UK. |
| However, the poll found the percentage of people saying they support independence varies widely depending on how the question is phrased. | However, the poll found the percentage of people saying they support independence varies widely depending on how the question is phrased. |
| The Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum on the issue in 2010. | The Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum on the issue in 2010. |
| The poll of 1,010 people, carried out between 22 and 24 June by ICM, found 58% of respondents were in favour of the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent, with only 37% against. | The poll of 1,010 people, carried out between 22 and 24 June by ICM, found 58% of respondents were in favour of the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent, with only 37% against. |
| Range of scenarios | Range of scenarios |
| When asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", 38% responded that they believed Scotland should become an independent country, with 54% saying they did not believe it should become independent. | When asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland, how would you vote?", 38% responded that they believed Scotland should become an independent country, with 54% saying they did not believe it should become independent. |
| However, the pollsters also asked a separate question asking whether people agreed or disagreed that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state" - the preferred wording of the Scottish Government for a future referendum. | However, the pollsters also asked a separate question asking whether people agreed or disagreed that "the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state" - the preferred wording of the Scottish Government for a future referendum. |
| In this case, 42% agreed with the statement, with 50% opposed. | In this case, 42% agreed with the statement, with 50% opposed. |
| The poll also asked which of a range of scenarios were closest to people's views of how Scotland should be governed. | The poll also asked which of a range of scenarios were closest to people's views of how Scotland should be governed. |
| Under this wording, only 28% backed the option of Scotland becoming independent of the rest of the UK, with 47% in favour of remaining in the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make some decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland. | Under this wording, only 28% backed the option of Scotland becoming independent of the rest of the UK, with 47% in favour of remaining in the UK, with the Scottish Parliament able to make some decisions about the level of taxation and government spending in Scotland. |
| A further 22% said Scotland should remain part of the UK, with decisions about the level of taxation and spending in Scotland made by the UK Government. | A further 22% said Scotland should remain part of the UK, with decisions about the level of taxation and spending in Scotland made by the UK Government. |
| Finally, respondents were asked whether they believed it was likely or unlikely Scotland would become completely independent from the UK within the next 20 years. | Finally, respondents were asked whether they believed it was likely or unlikely Scotland would become completely independent from the UK within the next 20 years. |
| Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel Alex SalmondFirst Minister | Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel Alex SalmondFirst Minister |
| The results showed that 10% thought it was very likely and 28% believed it was quite likely. | The results showed that 10% thought it was very likely and 28% believed it was quite likely. |
| However, a larger percentage were not so sure, with 34% responding that it was quite unlikely and 24% believing independence was very unlikely. | However, a larger percentage were not so sure, with 34% responding that it was quite unlikely and 24% believing independence was very unlikely. |
| Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said it was clear that the way questions were asked in polls played a large part in how people responded. | Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said it was clear that the way questions were asked in polls played a large part in how people responded. |
| Using the example of the poll suggesting most Scots wanted defence and foreign affairs to be left to Westminster, Mr Salmond said: "If you asked: 'Should we decide whether or not Scottish troops are sent to an illegal war in Iraq', most people would say we should take that decision in Scotland. | Using the example of the poll suggesting most Scots wanted defence and foreign affairs to be left to Westminster, Mr Salmond said: "If you asked: 'Should we decide whether or not Scottish troops are sent to an illegal war in Iraq', most people would say we should take that decision in Scotland. |
| "Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel. | "Rather than looking at this poll or that poll or this question or that question, it is the trend, it is the direction of travel. |
| "Which direction are people going in? I think it is crystal clear from this poll and from many others that the trend is to see an increasingly powerful parliament because people think and believe, I think rightly, that the parliament has earned the trust of the people of Scotland." | "Which direction are people going in? I think it is crystal clear from this poll and from many others that the trend is to see an increasingly powerful parliament because people think and believe, I think rightly, that the parliament has earned the trust of the people of Scotland." |
| Politics professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the findings suggested that 10 years of devolution - including two years of SNP government - had done little to whet Scots' appetite for independence. | Politics professor John Curtice, of the University of Strathclyde, said the findings suggested that 10 years of devolution - including two years of SNP government - had done little to whet Scots' appetite for independence. |
| "The straightforward question on whether people want independence or not has been asked many times by ICM over the past 10 years. At 37%, those saying they backed independence has never been lower, while at 54% the proportion saying they are against has never been higher. | "The straightforward question on whether people want independence or not has been asked many times by ICM over the past 10 years. At 37%, those saying they backed independence has never been lower, while at 54% the proportion saying they are against has never been higher. |
| "The option of proposing a multi-option referendum rather than a simple vote on independence must be beginning to look increasingly attractive to the SNP government. | "The option of proposing a multi-option referendum rather than a simple vote on independence must be beginning to look increasingly attractive to the SNP government. |
| "It seems as though a third option of increasing the tax powers of the Scottish parliament, but remaining part of the Union would be by far the most popular option." | "It seems as though a third option of increasing the tax powers of the Scottish parliament, but remaining part of the Union would be by far the most popular option." |