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| Surge of flu cases 'on the way' | Surge of flu cases 'on the way' |
| (1 day later) | |
| Tens of thousands of cases of swine flu could be emerging each week by the autumn, the chief medical officer says. | Tens of thousands of cases of swine flu could be emerging each week by the autumn, the chief medical officer says. |
| Sir Liam Donaldson said the most likely scenario was that the UK would see a surge of cases from the current levels. | Sir Liam Donaldson said the most likely scenario was that the UK would see a surge of cases from the current levels. |
| Over 3,700 cases have been confirmed so far, and the government has already paved the way for some areas to move away from trying to contain the virus. | Over 3,700 cases have been confirmed so far, and the government has already paved the way for some areas to move away from trying to contain the virus. |
| Glasgow, London and the West Midlands have been identified as the areas with the most rapid spread. | Glasgow, London and the West Midlands have been identified as the areas with the most rapid spread. |
| To date, local health officials have been attempting to put a ring around the outbreaks by tracing the people with whom confirmed cases have come into contact and giving them drugs to try to prevent flu developing. | To date, local health officials have been attempting to put a ring around the outbreaks by tracing the people with whom confirmed cases have come into contact and giving them drugs to try to prevent flu developing. |
| We still think we are heading for a larger surge of cases in the autumn and winter Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer | We still think we are heading for a larger surge of cases in the autumn and winter Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer |
| This approach has also involved the closure of several schools. | This approach has also involved the closure of several schools. |
| But Sir Liam said certain areas were seeing rapid community spread which meant this was not now practical. | But Sir Liam said certain areas were seeing rapid community spread which meant this was not now practical. |
| In these areas, anti-viral drugs may in the future only be given to those people showing symptoms, while the tracing of contacts will stop. | In these areas, anti-viral drugs may in the future only be given to those people showing symptoms, while the tracing of contacts will stop. |
| However, he said this pattern was not emerging everywhere, with some parts of the UK - Wales and Northern Ireland in particular - hardly seeing any cases. | However, he said this pattern was not emerging everywhere, with some parts of the UK - Wales and Northern Ireland in particular - hardly seeing any cases. |
| He said the contingency plans always envisaged the containment phase would not last indefinitely. | He said the contingency plans always envisaged the containment phase would not last indefinitely. |
| Sir Liam said: "We still think we are heading for a larger surge of cases in the autumn and winter. | Sir Liam said: "We still think we are heading for a larger surge of cases in the autumn and winter. |
| "Although it still remains a fairly mild virus and in most places is only spreading gradually." | "Although it still remains a fairly mild virus and in most places is only spreading gradually." |
| It also seems likely the UK will receive the first batches of vaccines slightly earlier than normal. | It also seems likely the UK will receive the first batches of vaccines slightly earlier than normal. |
| Sir Liam said it may be available from August rather than the autumn as first expected. | Sir Liam said it may be available from August rather than the autumn as first expected. |
| The government has contracts with two manufacturers for 132m doses - enough for the whole population. | The government has contracts with two manufacturers for 132m doses - enough for the whole population. |
| Sir Liam acknowledged that they would not get all the jabs in one go, but added this did not necessarily matter. | Sir Liam acknowledged that they would not get all the jabs in one go, but added this did not necessarily matter. |
| "In all previous pandemics excess mortality has occurred for three years after the new virus emerges. It is not just a consideration for this winter." | "In all previous pandemics excess mortality has occurred for three years after the new virus emerges. It is not just a consideration for this winter." |
| Shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley said: "We are now moving into a new phase of more community transmission. While we have supported the strategy to date, the government needs to provide more clarity on some key issues." | Shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley said: "We are now moving into a new phase of more community transmission. While we have supported the strategy to date, the government needs to provide more clarity on some key issues." |
| In particular, he highlighted school closures, the distribution of anti-virals and the vaccination programme. |