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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| UK 'must plan' for warmer future | UK 'must plan' for warmer future |
| (31 minutes later) | |
| The UK needs to plan now for a future that will be hotter and bring greater extremes of flood and drought, says Environment Secretary Hilary Benn. | The UK needs to plan now for a future that will be hotter and bring greater extremes of flood and drought, says Environment Secretary Hilary Benn. |
| Launching the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09), Mr Benn told MPs that the UK climate will change even with a global deal on emissions. | Launching the UK Climate Projections 2009 report (UKCP09), Mr Benn told MPs that the UK climate will change even with a global deal on emissions. |
| By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now, he said. | By 2080, London will be between 2C and 6C hotter than it is now, he said. |
| Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections. | Every part of the UK is likely to be wetter in winter and drier in summer, according to the projections. |
| Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside by the middle of the century, while Scotland and the north-west of England could see winter rainfall increase by a similar amount. | Summer rainfall could decrease by about 20% in the south of England and in Yorkshire and Humberside by the middle of the century, while Scotland and the north-west of England could see winter rainfall increase by a similar amount. |
| These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for Hilary Benn | These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for Hilary Benn |
| The government hopes UKCP09 will allow citizens, local authorities and businesses to plan for future decades. | The government hopes UKCP09 will allow citizens, local authorities and businesses to plan for future decades. |
| It uses climate models developed by the UK Met Office to make projections of parameters such as temperature, rainfall and wind. | It uses climate models developed by the UK Met Office to make projections of parameters such as temperature, rainfall and wind. |
| "Climate change is going to transform the way we live," said Mr Benn. | "Climate change is going to transform the way we live," said Mr Benn. |
| "These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for." | "These projections show us the future we need to avoid, and the future we need to plan for." |
| Using a range of online tools including a "weather generator", people will be able to enter their postcodes and see projections of how conditions are likely to change within 25 sq km grid squares at different points in the future. | Using a range of online tools including a "weather generator", people will be able to enter their postcodes and see projections of how conditions are likely to change within 25 sq km grid squares at different points in the future. |
| "[This is] the most comprehensive set of probabilistic climate projections at the regional scale compiled anywhere in the world," said John Mitchell, director of climate science at the UK Met Office. | "[This is] the most comprehensive set of probabilistic climate projections at the regional scale compiled anywhere in the world," said John Mitchell, director of climate science at the UK Met Office. |
| 'Serious impact' | 'Serious impact' |
| The previous report - UKCIP2002 - is now seven years old, and included projections from just one computer model. | The previous report - UKCIP2002 - is now seven years old, and included projections from just one computer model. |
| By contrast, UKCP09 has collated data from 400 variations of the model developed by the Hadley Centre, part of the Met Office. | By contrast, UKCP09 has collated data from 400 variations of the model developed by the Hadley Centre, part of the Met Office. |
| Each variant has been checked to see how well it predicted the climate of past decades; and the numbers have been compared with projections of other computer models. | Each variant has been checked to see how well it predicted the climate of past decades; and the numbers have been compared with projections of other computer models. |
| FROM THE WORLD AT ONE href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qptc">More from The World At One | |
| This allowed scientists to assign probabilities to various forecasts. | This allowed scientists to assign probabilities to various forecasts. |
| The idea of the impact assessment has been well received by environment groups. | The idea of the impact assessment has been well received by environment groups. |
| "It's great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK, but the picture it paints is an alarming one," said Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF-UK. | "It's great that the government has decided to put together such a scientifically robust analysis of the potential impacts of climate change in the UK, but the picture it paints is an alarming one," said Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF-UK. |
| "This research confirms that not only is climate change already having a serious impact in Britain, but that we are also locked into further impacts, and that these impacts will get much worse unless we act now to tackle the problem." | "This research confirms that not only is climate change already having a serious impact in Britain, but that we are also locked into further impacts, and that these impacts will get much worse unless we act now to tackle the problem." |
| Campaigners say that the UK impacts are likely to be minor compared to other parts of the world. | Campaigners say that the UK impacts are likely to be minor compared to other parts of the world. |
| Last month a report from the Global Humanitarian Forum, the think tank chaired by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, said that the UK was among the 12 countries likely to be least affected by climate change. | Last month a report from the Global Humanitarian Forum, the think tank chaired by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, said that the UK was among the 12 countries likely to be least affected by climate change. |
| On Friday, the Environment Agency will release an assessment of how the changing climate will affect the risk of impacts such as flooding in England and Wales. | On Friday, the Environment Agency will release an assessment of how the changing climate will affect the risk of impacts such as flooding in England and Wales. |
| Commenting on the UKCP09 projections, Environment Agency chairman Chris Smith said: | Commenting on the UKCP09 projections, Environment Agency chairman Chris Smith said: |
| "These new projections remind us starkly of the choices we face in ensuring a sustainable future for our fragile planet. | "These new projections remind us starkly of the choices we face in ensuring a sustainable future for our fragile planet. |
| "A failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a battle for survival for mankind and many other species across the globe by the end of this century; and we will feel the effects here in the UK too." | "A failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a battle for survival for mankind and many other species across the globe by the end of this century; and we will feel the effects here in the UK too." |
| Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk | Richard.Black-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk |