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| There’s a Reason Trump Loves the Truckers | There’s a Reason Trump Loves the Truckers |
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| The truckers’ protest in Ottawa is the latest barrage from the world’s disaffected in the revolt that found expression in the 2016 election of Donald Trump; the 2017 Unite the Right march on Charlottesville, Va.; the rise of QAnon; and the Jan. 6 insurrection in the halls of Congress. | The truckers’ protest in Ottawa is the latest barrage from the world’s disaffected in the revolt that found expression in the 2016 election of Donald Trump; the 2017 Unite the Right march on Charlottesville, Va.; the rise of QAnon; and the Jan. 6 insurrection in the halls of Congress. |
| One thing that stands out in the Canadian truckers’ protests against vaccination requirements specifically and the Trudeau government generally is the strong support they are getting from conservative political leaders and media figures in this country. | One thing that stands out in the Canadian truckers’ protests against vaccination requirements specifically and the Trudeau government generally is the strong support they are getting from conservative political leaders and media figures in this country. |
| “We want those great Canadian truckers to know that we are with them all the way,” Trump told rallygoers in Conroe, Texas, on Jan. 29. | “We want those great Canadian truckers to know that we are with them all the way,” Trump told rallygoers in Conroe, Texas, on Jan. 29. |
| “I see they have Trump signs all over the place and I’m proud that they do,” he added. | “I see they have Trump signs all over the place and I’m proud that they do,” he added. |
| On Feb. 12, Trump brought it home to America during a Fox News appearance, “That’s what happens, you can push people so far and our country is a tinderbox too, don’t kid yourself.” | On Feb. 12, Trump brought it home to America during a Fox News appearance, “That’s what happens, you can push people so far and our country is a tinderbox too, don’t kid yourself.” |
| The former president is not alone. | The former president is not alone. |
| “I hope the truckers do come to America,” Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, told The Daily Signal, a conservative website. “Civil disobedience is a time-honored tradition in our country, from slavery to civil rights, you name it. Peaceful protest, clog things up, make people think about the mandates.” | “I hope the truckers do come to America,” Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, told The Daily Signal, a conservative website. “Civil disobedience is a time-honored tradition in our country, from slavery to civil rights, you name it. Peaceful protest, clog things up, make people think about the mandates.” |
| Nor was all this confined to North America. “Ottawa truckers’ convoy galvanizes far right worldwide,” an article in Politico on Feb. 6 declared. “Leading Republicans, right-wing influencers and white supremacist groups have jumped at the chance to promote the standoff in Ottawa to a global audience.” | Nor was all this confined to North America. “Ottawa truckers’ convoy galvanizes far right worldwide,” an article in Politico on Feb. 6 declared. “Leading Republicans, right-wing influencers and white supremacist groups have jumped at the chance to promote the standoff in Ottawa to a global audience.” |
| In “Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party,” a 2017 paper in the Journal of Political Economy, Shanker Satyanath of N.Y.U., Nico Voigtländer of U.C.L.A. and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich offer a counterintuitive perspective on the spread of right-wing organizing in Canada, Hungary, Brazil, India, Poland, Austria and in the United States. | In “Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party,” a 2017 paper in the Journal of Political Economy, Shanker Satyanath of N.Y.U., Nico Voigtländer of U.C.L.A. and Hans-Joachim Voth of the University of Zurich offer a counterintuitive perspective on the spread of right-wing organizing in Canada, Hungary, Brazil, India, Poland, Austria and in the United States. |
| The three authors argue that in the 1930s in Europe: | The three authors argue that in the 1930s in Europe: |
| Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Neil Lee and Cornelius Lipp, all of the London School of Economics, pick up this argument in a November 2021 paper on the paradoxical role of social capital in fostering far-right movements. Noting that the “positive view of social capital has, more recently, been challenged,” the three economic geographers write: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Neil Lee and Cornelius Lipp, all of the London School of Economics, pick up this argument in a November 2021 paper on the paradoxical role of social capital in fostering far-right movements. Noting that the “positive view of social capital has, more recently, been challenged,” the three economic geographers write: |
| It is, the three authors continue, | It is, the three authors continue, |
| Translated to the present, in economic and culturally besieged communities, the remnants of social capital have been crucial to the mobilization of men and women — mostly men — who chanted, “you will not replace us” and “blood and soil” in Charlottesville, who shot bear spray at police officers on Jan. 6 and who brought Ottawa to its knees for more than two weeks. | Translated to the present, in economic and culturally besieged communities, the remnants of social capital have been crucial to the mobilization of men and women — mostly men — who chanted, “you will not replace us” and “blood and soil” in Charlottesville, who shot bear spray at police officers on Jan. 6 and who brought Ottawa to its knees for more than two weeks. |
| In a separate paper, “The Rise of Populism and the Revenge of the Places,” Rodríguez-Pose argued, “Populism is not the result of persistent poverty. Places that have been chronically poor are not the ones rebelling.” Instead, he continued, | |
| In an email, Rodríguez-Pose wrote: | In an email, Rodríguez-Pose wrote: |
| In a separate email, Lee noted that while most analysts view higher social capital as a healthy development in communities, it can also foster negative ethnic and racial solidarity: “Social capital can be a great thing when it is open and inclusive. But when everyone knows each other, this can result in in-group dynamics — particularly when people are led to be concerned about other groups.” | In a separate email, Lee noted that while most analysts view higher social capital as a healthy development in communities, it can also foster negative ethnic and racial solidarity: “Social capital can be a great thing when it is open and inclusive. But when everyone knows each other, this can result in in-group dynamics — particularly when people are led to be concerned about other groups.” |
| The accompanying graphic, produced by the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, shows the geographic distribution of social capital by county in the United States as of 2018. Social capital is highest in yellow areas and lowest in dark blue regions. The variables used to measure social capital included levels of family unity, collective efficacy, institutional health and community health. | The accompanying graphic, produced by the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, shows the geographic distribution of social capital by county in the United States as of 2018. Social capital is highest in yellow areas and lowest in dark blue regions. The variables used to measure social capital included levels of family unity, collective efficacy, institutional health and community health. |
| Social capital correlated positively with the volunteer rate, the share of adults who made charitable contributions, the share married and the share who trust their neighbors. It correlated negatively with heavy television watching by children, the share of children living with a single parent and the share of births that were to unwed mothers. | Social capital correlated positively with the volunteer rate, the share of adults who made charitable contributions, the share married and the share who trust their neighbors. It correlated negatively with heavy television watching by children, the share of children living with a single parent and the share of births that were to unwed mothers. |
| Regina Anne Bateson, a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa, wrote to me in a Feb. 14 email: “The situation in Canada is often described as a truckers’ protest. However, it’s not just truckers who are participating, and this is not just a protest.” | Regina Anne Bateson, a professor of public and international affairs at the University of Ottawa, wrote to me in a Feb. 14 email: “The situation in Canada is often described as a truckers’ protest. However, it’s not just truckers who are participating, and this is not just a protest.” |
| The situation in Ottawa quickly devolved, Bateson argues, | The situation in Ottawa quickly devolved, Bateson argues, |
| The occupation of Ottawa has become a “militia-like activity,” Bateson writes. “The convoy has resupply bases on the outskirts of town, as well as mobile squads of pickup trucks that rove around the city, delivering supplies and harassing local residents.” The protest organizers have “even been experimenting with governance, including providing services like snow and trash removal. Remarkably, they recently inaugurated a cohort of ‘peace officers,’ who are authorized to detain people if needed. Justin Ling, a journalist, reports that some of the convoy’s peace officers have subsequently tried to arrest Ottawa police.” | The occupation of Ottawa has become a “militia-like activity,” Bateson writes. “The convoy has resupply bases on the outskirts of town, as well as mobile squads of pickup trucks that rove around the city, delivering supplies and harassing local residents.” The protest organizers have “even been experimenting with governance, including providing services like snow and trash removal. Remarkably, they recently inaugurated a cohort of ‘peace officers,’ who are authorized to detain people if needed. Justin Ling, a journalist, reports that some of the convoy’s peace officers have subsequently tried to arrest Ottawa police.” |
| Perhaps most important, Bateson described the | Perhaps most important, Bateson described the |
| Asked what the potential consequences of the protests are, Bateson replied: | Asked what the potential consequences of the protests are, Bateson replied: |
| In this context, I asked Rodríguez-Pose whether the truck protests in Canada are a harbinger of future right-wing populist protests, and he pointed to developments in France in his emailed reply: | In this context, I asked Rodríguez-Pose whether the truck protests in Canada are a harbinger of future right-wing populist protests, and he pointed to developments in France in his emailed reply: |
| The pitting of a populist rural America against a cosmopolitan urban America has deep economic and cultural roots, and this divide has become a staple of contemporary polarization. | The pitting of a populist rural America against a cosmopolitan urban America has deep economic and cultural roots, and this divide has become a staple of contemporary polarization. |
| “Urban residents are much more likely to have progressive values. This result applies across three categories of values: family values, gender equality and immigration attitudes,” Davide Luca of Cambridge University; Javier Terrero-Davila and Neil Lee, both of the London School of Economics; and Jonas Stein of the Arctic University of Norway write in their January 2022 article “Progressive Cities: Urban-Rural Polarization of Social Values and Economic Development Around the World.” | “Urban residents are much more likely to have progressive values. This result applies across three categories of values: family values, gender equality and immigration attitudes,” Davide Luca of Cambridge University; Javier Terrero-Davila and Neil Lee, both of the London School of Economics; and Jonas Stein of the Arctic University of Norway write in their January 2022 article “Progressive Cities: Urban-Rural Polarization of Social Values and Economic Development Around the World.” |
| Luca and his colleagues emphasize the divisive role of what Ronald Inglehart, a political scientist at the University of Michigan who died last year, called the “silent revolution” and what Ron Lesthaeghe of the Free University of Brussels describes as the “second demographic transition.” | Luca and his colleagues emphasize the divisive role of what Ronald Inglehart, a political scientist at the University of Michigan who died last year, called the “silent revolution” and what Ron Lesthaeghe of the Free University of Brussels describes as the “second demographic transition.” |
| Citing Inglehart, Luca and his co-authors write: | Citing Inglehart, Luca and his co-authors write: |
| The urban-rural conflict between postmaterialistic values (shorthand for autonomy, environmental protection, sexual freedom, gender equality) and more traditional values (family obligation, sexual restraint, church, community) is most acute in “high income countries,” they write. This suggests, they continue, “that only more advanced economies can provide cities with the material comfort, and probably the right institutional environment, to make progressive values relevant.” | The urban-rural conflict between postmaterialistic values (shorthand for autonomy, environmental protection, sexual freedom, gender equality) and more traditional values (family obligation, sexual restraint, church, community) is most acute in “high income countries,” they write. This suggests, they continue, “that only more advanced economies can provide cities with the material comfort, and probably the right institutional environment, to make progressive values relevant.” |
| In an email, Luca elaborated: | In an email, Luca elaborated: |
| Cities, Luca argued, “are the catalysts for these changes to occur. In other words, cities are the loci where self-expression values can develop, in turn affecting reproductive behaviors and, hence, demographic patterns.” | Cities, Luca argued, “are the catalysts for these changes to occur. In other words, cities are the loci where self-expression values can develop, in turn affecting reproductive behaviors and, hence, demographic patterns.” |
| Social capital is by no means the only glue that holds right-wing movements together. | Social capital is by no means the only glue that holds right-wing movements together. |
| The Rodríguez-Pose and Luca papers suggest that cultural conflict and regional economic discrepancies also generate powerful political momentum for those seeking to build a “coalition of resentment.” Since the 2016 election of Trump, the Republican Party has focused on that just that kind of Election Day alliance. | The Rodríguez-Pose and Luca papers suggest that cultural conflict and regional economic discrepancies also generate powerful political momentum for those seeking to build a “coalition of resentment.” Since the 2016 election of Trump, the Republican Party has focused on that just that kind of Election Day alliance. |
| Shannon M. Monnat and David L. Brown, sociologists at Syracuse and Cornell, have analyzed the economic and demographic characteristics of counties that sharply increased their vote for Trump in 2016 compared with their support for Mitt Romney in 2012. | Shannon M. Monnat and David L. Brown, sociologists at Syracuse and Cornell, have analyzed the economic and demographic characteristics of counties that sharply increased their vote for Trump in 2016 compared with their support for Mitt Romney in 2012. |
| In their October 2017 paper “More Than a Rural Revolt: Landscapes of Despair and the 2016 Presidential Election,” Monnat and Brown found that “Trump performed better in counties with more economic distress, worse health, higher drug, alcohol and suicide mortality rates, lower educational attainment and higher marital separation/divorce rates.” | In their October 2017 paper “More Than a Rural Revolt: Landscapes of Despair and the 2016 Presidential Election,” Monnat and Brown found that “Trump performed better in counties with more economic distress, worse health, higher drug, alcohol and suicide mortality rates, lower educational attainment and higher marital separation/divorce rates.” |
| The accompanying graphic demonstrates the pattern of Trump’s strength compared with Romney’s. The red bars show characteristics of areas that voted more for Trump than Romney; the blue bars show the characteristics of communities that cast more votes for Romney than for Trump. | The accompanying graphic demonstrates the pattern of Trump’s strength compared with Romney’s. The red bars show characteristics of areas that voted more for Trump than Romney; the blue bars show the characteristics of communities that cast more votes for Romney than for Trump. |
| Trump’s populist message, Monnat and Brown write in their conclusion, | Trump’s populist message, Monnat and Brown write in their conclusion, |
| In “Social Capital, Religion, Wal-Mart, and Hate Groups in America,” a 2012 paper, Stephan J. Goetz of Penn State; Anil Rupasingha, a research economist at the Department of Agriculture; and Scott Loveridge of Michigan State University found that “higher incomes, more income inequality, higher crime rates and the presence of more Wal-Mart stores and foreign-born populations are each associated with a more likely presence of one or more hate groups in the county.” | In “Social Capital, Religion, Wal-Mart, and Hate Groups in America,” a 2012 paper, Stephan J. Goetz of Penn State; Anil Rupasingha, a research economist at the Department of Agriculture; and Scott Loveridge of Michigan State University found that “higher incomes, more income inequality, higher crime rates and the presence of more Wal-Mart stores and foreign-born populations are each associated with a more likely presence of one or more hate groups in the county.” |
| The Walmart effect, they wrote, likely results from the “economic turmoil” as communities “experience steep decline in their traditional downtown shopping districts.” | The Walmart effect, they wrote, likely results from the “economic turmoil” as communities “experience steep decline in their traditional downtown shopping districts.” |
| Two factors work to lower the likelihood of hate group formation, they write: “A higher stock of social capital is associated with fewer hate groups,” and “a greater share of mainline Protestant adherents is associated with fewer hate groups.” | Two factors work to lower the likelihood of hate group formation, they write: “A higher stock of social capital is associated with fewer hate groups,” and “a greater share of mainline Protestant adherents is associated with fewer hate groups.” |
| The opposite is true, Goetz, Rupasingha and Loveridge found, “for evangelical Protestant adherents,” writing that “for every 10 percent additional evangelicals in a county, the number of hate groups in that county increases by 17 percent.” | The opposite is true, Goetz, Rupasingha and Loveridge found, “for evangelical Protestant adherents,” writing that “for every 10 percent additional evangelicals in a county, the number of hate groups in that county increases by 17 percent.” |
| Regardless of the sources of discontent and regardless of the characteristics of those leading the assault on the liberal democratic state, there is no question that the truckers’ insurgency in Canada is catching fire abroad — currently in France, Britain, Belgium, New Zealand and Australia. | Regardless of the sources of discontent and regardless of the characteristics of those leading the assault on the liberal democratic state, there is no question that the truckers’ insurgency in Canada is catching fire abroad — currently in France, Britain, Belgium, New Zealand and Australia. |
| “Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ Protests Go Global: Australia to Austria Witness Anti-Covid Vaccine Agitations” is the headline on a Feb. 11 FirstPost article that describes developments in several countries: “Police and anti-vaccine protesters clashed on the grounds of New Zealand’s Parliament, with dozens arrested after demonstrators who laid siege to the legislature for three days were ordered to move on.” | “Canada’s ‘Freedom Convoy’ Protests Go Global: Australia to Austria Witness Anti-Covid Vaccine Agitations” is the headline on a Feb. 11 FirstPost article that describes developments in several countries: “Police and anti-vaccine protesters clashed on the grounds of New Zealand’s Parliament, with dozens arrested after demonstrators who laid siege to the legislature for three days were ordered to move on.” |
| And: “Brussels authorities have banned an upcoming ‘freedom convoy’ protest from entering the Belgian capital.” | And: “Brussels authorities have banned an upcoming ‘freedom convoy’ protest from entering the Belgian capital.” |
| And: “French police warned Thursday they would prevent so-called ‘freedom convoys’ from blockading Paris, as protesters against Covid rules began to drive towards the capital.” | And: “French police warned Thursday they would prevent so-called ‘freedom convoys’ from blockading Paris, as protesters against Covid rules began to drive towards the capital.” |
| And: “Austria also announced a ban on any motor protests as several hundred vehicles were set to converge Friday in central Vienna, as well as near a major public park in the Austrian capital.” | And: “Austria also announced a ban on any motor protests as several hundred vehicles were set to converge Friday in central Vienna, as well as near a major public park in the Austrian capital.” |
| There will also be a test of the vitality of the trucker protest movement in the United States. The People’s Convoy has issued a call to “truckers and all freedom loving Americans” to join at a rally on March 4 and 5 at Coachella Valley in Indio, Calif., which is expected to then aim for Washington, D.C. | There will also be a test of the vitality of the trucker protest movement in the United States. The People’s Convoy has issued a call to “truckers and all freedom loving Americans” to join at a rally on March 4 and 5 at Coachella Valley in Indio, Calif., which is expected to then aim for Washington, D.C. |
| The organizers claim they will provide “fuel reimbursement upon arrival for all attending this event,” adding: “the convoy will roll out of California following the rally. Convoy details will be forthcoming.” | The organizers claim they will provide “fuel reimbursement upon arrival for all attending this event,” adding: “the convoy will roll out of California following the rally. Convoy details will be forthcoming.” |
| There are risks and opportunities on both sides. For President Biden, a protest that brings traffic and commerce to a standstill in the nation’s capital would test his skill as the country’s chief executive, a test that could restore his faltering public image or send him on the road to defeat in 2024. For Trump and his allies on the right, such a protest could mobilize core voters going into the coming elections, or it could reinforce the Jan. 6 image of unconstrained chaos, severely damaging Republican prospects. | There are risks and opportunities on both sides. For President Biden, a protest that brings traffic and commerce to a standstill in the nation’s capital would test his skill as the country’s chief executive, a test that could restore his faltering public image or send him on the road to defeat in 2024. For Trump and his allies on the right, such a protest could mobilize core voters going into the coming elections, or it could reinforce the Jan. 6 image of unconstrained chaos, severely damaging Republican prospects. |
| Non-college-educated white people in the United States, like the protesting truckers in Canada, continue to face grim prospects, subordinated by meritocratic competition that rewards what they lack — advanced education and top scores on aptitude tests — accomplishments that feed the resource allocation, the status contests and the employment hierarchies that dominate contemporary life and leave those who cannot prevail out in the cold. | Non-college-educated white people in the United States, like the protesting truckers in Canada, continue to face grim prospects, subordinated by meritocratic competition that rewards what they lack — advanced education and top scores on aptitude tests — accomplishments that feed the resource allocation, the status contests and the employment hierarchies that dominate contemporary life and leave those who cannot prevail out in the cold. |
| As long as these voters remain on a downward trajectory, they will continue to be a disruptive force not only in the political arena but also in society at large. | As long as these voters remain on a downward trajectory, they will continue to be a disruptive force not only in the political arena but also in society at large. |
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