A new dawn for the Labour Party?

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By Tim Reid BBC Scotland Westminster reporter Gordon Brown is expected to face the parliamentary Labour Party on Monday

The police officer on duty inside the Downing Street gates smiled as he checked my security pass.

"Do you think this is it then?" he asked casually, allowing me on up the street towards Number 10.

It was 6am on Friday morning, just eight hours after James Purnell had dropped his bombshell - the work and pensions secretary was quitting the cabinet and demanding Gordon Brown step down.

Without elaborating, it was easy to establish what the friendly officer meant. Less easy to answer.

For at that point, as dawn broke, only one thing was certain. No-one knew exactly what was likely to happen next.

Not the prime minister, not his advisers, not his remaining team of ministers - loyal or not - and certainly not journalists.

As the drama of the day unfolded, the gaggle of political reporters, television crews, microphones and photographers grew, each broadcaster struggling to be heard over the next.

Being stuck on the pavement outside that famous black door trying to explain the comings and goings and the latest developments, is not without its hazards.

There is little in the way of facilities, except for a trusty mobile phone and for some lucky hacks nowadays, a wireless internet connection.

With David Miliband remaining as foreign secretary, the possibility of a coup seemed to dissipate into the grey clouds above

That means that speculation is rife. Journalists feed off each other's titbits of information, some right, some wrong. Reshuffle speculation, however, very rarely proves correct.

With the smell of a cabinet rebellion in the Downing Street air, following three resignations in as many days, there was no doubt Gordon Brown was fighting to reassert his authority.

None of us watching that door guessed that the man viewed as a potential successor to Mr Brown - Health Secretary Alan Johnson - would accept, by phone, the position of home secretary, nor that Chancellor Alistair Darling - who'd been tipped as a casualty - would stay put in Number 11.

With David Miliband remaining as foreign secretary, the possibility of a coup seemed to dissipate into the grey clouds above.

But the surprises kept coming - John Hutton's resignation was a bolt from the blue. And later Caroline Flint's exit was a lighting strike no one had predicted, since she'd pledged loyalty to the prime minister just hours before.

Mr Brown's premiership though is still far from secure. The results of the European elections, which are expected to be as bad for Labour as the English local council ones, could provide further ammunition to those unhappy with his refusal to quit.

Crucial days

On Monday, he's expected to face Labour backbenchers at what could be a make or break meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party.

His allies insist he's the man to lead the party and the country into the next general election, but his internal critics say Labour cannot win with him - and might stand a chance a chance with a new leader at the helm.

On Wednesday, MPs will be asked to vote for parliament to be dissolved.

After weeks of hugely damaging headlines over MP's expenses, the opposition parties - led by the Scottish and Welsh nationalists, but supported by the Tories and Lib Dems, will unite to support a general election.

It's impossible to predict what will happen on both those crucial days. Gordon Brown's political future may well depend on them.

Has he done enough to remain as the occupant of Number 10?

Not the prime minister, not his advisers, not his remaining team of ministers - loyal or not - and certainly not journalists, know that.