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Ukraine conflict: How reliant is Europe on Russia for gas? Ukraine conflict: How reliant is Europe on Russia for oil and gas?
(about 1 hour later)
Russian gas flows through pipelines across eastern and central EuropeRussian gas flows through pipelines across eastern and central Europe
Russia says Europe will "very soon" be paying significantly more for gas, after the opening of a new gas pipeline from Russia was put on hold. European gas prices have risen after the approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany was halted because of Russia's actions in Ukraine.
The approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany has been halted because of Russia's actions in Ukraine. The price of oil has also increased sharply this week.
There are growing concerns that Russia could restrict gas supplies through other routes in retaliation for this and other measures taken against Russia. With a quarter of the European Union's petroleum oil imports coming from Russia, along with almost half of its gas, there are concerns that Russia could restrict supplies in retaliation for measures taken against it.
How much gas does Europe get from Russia?How much gas does Europe get from Russia?
Russia supplies about 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports. Most of the rest comes from Norway and Algeria.Russia supplies about 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports. Most of the rest comes from Norway and Algeria.
Russia sends gas to Europe through several main pipelines - such as Nord Stream 1, Yamal-Europe and Brotherhood.Russia sends gas to Europe through several main pipelines - such as Nord Stream 1, Yamal-Europe and Brotherhood.
The gas is collected in regional storage hubs, and then distributed across the continent.The gas is collected in regional storage hubs, and then distributed across the continent.
Germany's decision to withhold approval for Nord Stream 2 has led Russian warnings that the price for gas in Europe will rise dramatically.Germany's decision to withhold approval for Nord Stream 2 has led Russian warnings that the price for gas in Europe will rise dramatically.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Ukraine crisisThe Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Ukraine crisis
IEA: Green energy needed to avoid turbulent prices
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
Gas prices in the European Union have already risen by more than 40% since Monday.Gas prices in the European Union have already risen by more than 40% since Monday.
Russia only provides about 5% of the UK's gas supplies, so it's less reliant on Russian imports than other European countries.Russia only provides about 5% of the UK's gas supplies, so it's less reliant on Russian imports than other European countries.
But prices in the UK are also up significantly due to the knock-on effect of supply shortages elsewhere in Europe.But prices in the UK are also up significantly due to the knock-on effect of supply shortages elsewhere in Europe.
Overall, Russian gas exports to Europe have been decreasing over the last couple of years - down 32% in February this year compared to February 2020.Overall, Russian gas exports to Europe have been decreasing over the last couple of years - down 32% in February this year compared to February 2020.
What about oil?
Russia is the European Union's biggest oil trading partner, according to the latest data from Eurostat.
The UK is less reliant on Russian for oil, getting most of its imports from Norway and the US.
The expectation is that European countries will cut oil supplies from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, which will likely drive up prices further.
More expensive oil means higher petrol prices, as well as increased manufacturing costs leading to higher prices for many other goods.
Oil prices have soared to more than $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.
What's happened to gas stocks in Europe?What's happened to gas stocks in Europe?
Gas storage across Europe is well below the 10-year average, with levels currently at about 75% of storage capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Gas storage across Europe is well below the 10-year average, with levels currently around 30% of storage capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
The UK's gas storage is currently at full capacity but it has much less than some other European countries. However, storage is normally lower at this time of year, before being increased during the spring and summer months.
Russia's own gas storage is also down. The UK's gas storage is currently about 85% full but it has much less storage capacity than most of European countries.
One factor - during the pandemic - has been falling demand as economic activity shrank.One factor - during the pandemic - has been falling demand as economic activity shrank.
As a result stocks of gas across Europe have been depleted, which in turn is driving up prices.As a result stocks of gas across Europe have been depleted, which in turn is driving up prices.
There are several other factors which have affected the situation in Europe, such as cold weather depleting stocks and growing demand for gas elsewhere in the world.There are several other factors which have affected the situation in Europe, such as cold weather depleting stocks and growing demand for gas elsewhere in the world.
Has Russia been meeting its commitments?
Gazprom, Russia's majority state-owned energy company, supplies gas to Europe under two different arrangements:
Long-term contracts often lasting from 10 to 25 years
"Spot" deals or one-off purchases for a fixed amount of gas
Gazprom itself describes long-term contracts as "fundamental to stable and sustainable gas supplies".
And it is understood that it met its obligations to European buyers last year under these contracts.
It is worth noting that "spot" sales don't appear to be happening in any significant quantity, going by data from Gazprom's own electronic sales platform.
"This leads to the conclusion that Gazprom is supplying the volumes... under its long-term contracts - but it is not providing additional volumes beyond those contracts," says Jack Sharples, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
But the International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, has accused Russia of reducing gas supplies to Europe for political purposes.
"We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia's behaviour. I would note that today's low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine", Mr Birol said in January.
Some analysts have previously suggested Russia could be holding back supplies to speed up approval of the newly-built Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
This bypasses Ukraine, and has been met with objections on geo-political as well as on environmental grounds.
IEA: Green energy needed to avoid turbulent prices
President Putin denies claims that Russia limits gas supplies for political purposes and says it fulfils all long-term contracts.
Nord Stream 2 would double gas exports to Germany
Europe is competing for global gas suppliesEurope is competing for global gas supplies
The economic rebound in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic has caused factories to ramp up production, pushing up demand for energy.The economic rebound in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic has caused factories to ramp up production, pushing up demand for energy.
Europe is also facing increased competition for gas from other parts of the world.Europe is also facing increased competition for gas from other parts of the world.
In recent decades, demand for gas in some regions like Asia and the Middle East has risen sharply.In recent decades, demand for gas in some regions like Asia and the Middle East has risen sharply.
This has knock-on effects on the market for liquified natural gas (LNG), which makes up about a quarter of Europe's imports. This has knock-on effects on the market for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which makes up about a quarter of Europe's imports.
When demand for LNG is high, supplies tend to be diverted to Asia to take advantage of rising prices.When demand for LNG is high, supplies tend to be diverted to Asia to take advantage of rising prices.
In addition, Russia has been expanding its gas exports to China, and in June inaugurated a gas processing plant in the far east of the country, which is predicted to become one of the biggest in the world.In addition, Russia has been expanding its gas exports to China, and in June inaugurated a gas processing plant in the far east of the country, which is predicted to become one of the biggest in the world.
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