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Europe gas prices: How far is Russia responsible? Europe gas prices: How far is Russia responsible?
(4 months later)
Russian gas flows through pipelines across eastern and central EuropeRussian gas flows through pipelines across eastern and central Europe
Gas prices have been soaring in countries across Europe, and there have been accusations that Russia could be seeking to exploit the situation for its own ends. Russia says Europe will "very soon" be paying significantly more for gas, after the opening of a gas pipeline from Russia was put on hold.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin says there is "nothing to support" the idea that his country is restricting the supply of energy for political purposes. The approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany has been halted because of Russia's actions in Ukraine.
So how far is Russia responsible for current shortages and rising prices? European gas prices have risen by more than 20% since Monday, as tensions over Ukraine escalate.
How much gas does Europe get from Russia?How much gas does Europe get from Russia?
Russia supplies about 50% of the EU’s natural gas imports. Most of the rest comes from Norway and Algeria. Russia supplies about 40% of the EU’s natural gas imports. Most of the rest comes from Norway and Algeria.
Russia sends gas to Europe through several main pipelines - such as the Nord Stream, the Yamal-Europe and the Brotherhood.Russia sends gas to Europe through several main pipelines - such as the Nord Stream, the Yamal-Europe and the Brotherhood.
The gas is collected in regional storage hubs, and then distributed to different countries across the continent. The gas is collected in regional storage hubs, and then distributed across the continent.
During the pandemic, overall gas exports from Russia fell because there was less demand as economic activity shrank. A second Nord Stream pipeline has been built between Russia and Germany - but its final approval has now been put on hold by Germany because of Russia's escalations in Ukraine.
Although it has picked up again in Europe, this downward trend has been continuing - with lower supply this year, especially via the Ukraine and Belarus pipelines. Following the decision, the Deputy Chair of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev tweeted that European gas prices would go up.
This has led to stocks across Europe being depleted, which in turn is driving up prices. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to the brave new world where Europeans are very soon going to pay €2.000 for 1.000 cubic meters of natural gas!
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Ukraine crisis
Overall, Russian gas exports to Europe have been decreasing over the last couple of years - down 32% in February this year compared to February 2020.
One factor - during the pandemic - has been falling demand as economic activity shrank.
Stocks of gas across Europe have been depleted, which in turn is driving up prices.
Has Russia been meeting its commitments?Has Russia been meeting its commitments?
Gazprom, Russia's majority state-owned energy company, supplies gas to Europe under two different arrangements:Gazprom, Russia's majority state-owned energy company, supplies gas to Europe under two different arrangements:
Long-term contracts often lasting from 10 to 25 yearsLong-term contracts often lasting from 10 to 25 years
"Spot" deals or one-off purchases for a fixed amount of gas"Spot" deals or one-off purchases for a fixed amount of gas
Gazprom itself describes long-term contracts as "fundamental to stable and sustainable gas supplies".Gazprom itself describes long-term contracts as "fundamental to stable and sustainable gas supplies".
And it is understood that it has met its obligations to European buyers this year under these contracts. And it is understood that it met its obligations to European buyers last year under these contracts.
However, the International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, recently said it estimated Russia could supply 15% more gas if it wanted to. It is worth noting that "spot" sales don't appear to be happening in any significant quantity, going by data from Gazprom's own electronic sales platform.
"This leads to the conclusion that Gazprom is supplying the volumes... under its long-term contracts - but it is not providing additional volumes beyond those contracts," says Jack Sharples, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
But the International Energy Agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, has accused Russia of reducing gas supplies to Europe for political purposes.
"We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia's behaviour. I would note that today's low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine", Mr Birol said in January.
Some analysts have previously suggested Russia could be holding back supplies to speed up approval of the newly-built Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
This bypasses Ukraine, and has been met with objections on geo-political as well as on environmental grounds.
IEA: Green energy needed to avoid turbulent pricesIEA: Green energy needed to avoid turbulent prices
President Putin denies claims that Russia limits gas supplies for political purposes and says it fulfils all long-term contracts.
Nord Stream 2 would double gas exports to GermanyNord Stream 2 would double gas exports to Germany
Some analysts have suggested Russia could be holding back supplies to speed up approval of the newly-built Nord Stream 2 pipeline running directly from Russia to Germany.
This bypasses Ukraine, and has been met with objections on geo-political as well as environmental grounds, although Russia is keen for it to come on stream.
"A significant section of the mainstream European media has attributed this to Gazprom intentionally withholding supplies in order to force the German regulator and European Commission to approve Nord Stream 2," says Jack Sharples, of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
But he adds that this analysis "is questionable".
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she was not aware of any instances where Russia had not met its contractual obligations.
"Russia can only deliver gas on the basis of contractual obligations and not just like that," she was quoted as saying.
But it is worth noting that "spot" sales do not appear to be happening in any significant quantity, going by data from Gazprom's own electronic sales platform.
Dr Sharples says: "This leads to the conclusion that Gazprom is supplying the volumes... under its long-term contracts - but it is not providing additional volumes beyond those contracts."
That view was also expressed by the EU's Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson.
"Our initial assessment suggests that Russia is fulfilling its long-term contracts while not providing any additional supply." she told MEPs on 6 October.
Russia's deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, told the BBC: "Gazprom has in fact started pumping out from its reserves into pipelines to stabilise the market."
And he added: "We have never been in a position to exert pressure through our energy supplies."
What's happened to stocks in Europe?What's happened to stocks in Europe?
Gas storage across Europe is well below the 10-year average, with levels currently at about 75% of storage capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.Gas storage across Europe is well below the 10-year average, with levels currently at about 75% of storage capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
The UK's gas storage is currently at full capacity - but Russia only provides about 5% of the country's usage, so it's less reliant on Russian imports than other European countries. The UK's gas storage is currently at full capacity but it has much less than some other European countries.
Russia only provides about 5% of the UK's gas supplies, so it's less reliant on Russian imports than other European countries.
Russia's own gas storage is also down.Russia's own gas storage is also down.
Adeline Van Houtte, a Europe analyst at the Economist's Intelligence Unit, says: "Currently, the Russian domestic gas market remains tight, with output already near its peak and winter is looming... limiting gas export capacity." There are several other factors which have affected the situation in Europe, such as:
There are several other factors affecting the situation in Europe, such as: cold weather depleting stocks
cold weather at the start of 2021 depleting stocks
rising prices in spring and summer put traders off buying to sell later in the yearrising prices in spring and summer put traders off buying to sell later in the year
limited supply from Norway because of maintenance issueslimited supply from Norway because of maintenance issues
reduction in other energy sources such as wind powerreduction in other energy sources such as wind power
growing demand for gas elsewhere in the worldgrowing demand for gas elsewhere in the world
Why is there a surge in demand for gas?Why is there a surge in demand for gas?
The economic rebound in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic has caused factories to ramp up production, pushing up demand for energy.The economic rebound in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic has caused factories to ramp up production, pushing up demand for energy.
Europe is also facing increased competition for gas from other parts of the world.Europe is also facing increased competition for gas from other parts of the world.
In recent decades, demand for gas in some regions like Asia and the Middle East has risen sharply.In recent decades, demand for gas in some regions like Asia and the Middle East has risen sharply.
This has knock-on effects on the market for liquified natural gas (LNG), which makes up about a quarter of Europe's imports.This has knock-on effects on the market for liquified natural gas (LNG), which makes up about a quarter of Europe's imports.
When demand for LNG is high, supplies tend to be diverted to Asia to take advantage of rising prices.When demand for LNG is high, supplies tend to be diverted to Asia to take advantage of rising prices.
In addition, Russia has been expanding its gas exports to China, and in June inaugurated a gas processing plant in the far east of the country, which is predicted to become one of the biggest in the world.In addition, Russia has been expanding its gas exports to China, and in June inaugurated a gas processing plant in the far east of the country, which is predicted to become one of the biggest in the world.
Additional reporting by Kumar Malhotra and Daniele Palumbo Additional reporting by Kumar Malhotra
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