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Ukraine war: How reliant is the world on Russia for oil and gas? Ukraine war: How reliant is the world on Russia for oil and gas?
(12 days later)
Fuel prices have soared since Russia's invasion of UkraineFuel prices have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine
The US, UK and EU have announced that they will restrict Russian oil and gas imports. The US and EU have agreed a deal for the US to supply liquified natural gas to help reduce Europe's reliance on Russian energy.
The move came after Russia warned it could cut off gas supplies to European countries if an oil ban were to go ahead. It follows restrictions on oil and gas imports from Russia after it invaded Ukraine in February.
What sanctions are there on Russian oil and gas?What sanctions are there on Russian oil and gas?
The US has announced a complete ban on Russian oil, gas and coal imports, after Ukraine called for sanctions to be expanded. The US has declared a complete ban on Russian oil, gas and coal imports.
The UK is to phase out Russian oil by the end of the year, and the EU is reducing its Russian gas imports by two-thirds.The UK is to phase out Russian oil by the end of the year, and the EU is reducing its Russian gas imports by two-thirds.
The UK government says this allows enough time for it to find alternative supplies.The UK government says this allows enough time for it to find alternative supplies.
Deputy Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said rejecting Russian oil would lead to "catastrophic consequences for the global market".Deputy Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said rejecting Russian oil would lead to "catastrophic consequences for the global market".
Oil and gas prices have already risen sharply, and if Russia were to halt exports they would rise further.Oil and gas prices have already risen sharply, and if Russia were to halt exports they would rise further.
How much oil does Russia export?How much oil does Russia export?
Russia is the third biggest producer of oil in the world, behind the US and Saudi Arabia.Russia is the third biggest producer of oil in the world, behind the US and Saudi Arabia.
Of about five million barrels of crude oil it exports each day, more than half of that goes to Europe.Of about five million barrels of crude oil it exports each day, more than half of that goes to Europe.
Russian imports account for 8% of total UK oil demand.Russian imports account for 8% of total UK oil demand.
The US is less reliant, with about 3% of its imported oil coming from Russia in 2020.The US is less reliant, with about 3% of its imported oil coming from Russia in 2020.
What about alternative oil supplies?What about alternative oil supplies?
Energy policy research analyst Ben McWilliams says it should be easier to find alternative suppliers for oil than for gas, because while some comes from Russia, "there's also a lot of shipments from elsewhere".Energy policy research analyst Ben McWilliams says it should be easier to find alternative suppliers for oil than for gas, because while some comes from Russia, "there's also a lot of shipments from elsewhere".
The US has been asking Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production, but it has rebuffed previous US requests to boost output in order to reduce oil prices.The US has been asking Saudi Arabia to increase its oil production, but it has rebuffed previous US requests to boost output in order to reduce oil prices.
Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in Opec, the oil cartel which accounts for about 60% of the crude oil traded internationally. Because of this Opec has a key role in influencing oil prices. So far, no Opec member has agreed to any requests to boost output.Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer in Opec, the oil cartel which accounts for about 60% of the crude oil traded internationally. Because of this Opec has a key role in influencing oil prices. So far, no Opec member has agreed to any requests to boost output.
Russia is not in Opec but has been working with it since 2017 to place limits on oil production, in order to maintain earnings for producers.Russia is not in Opec but has been working with it since 2017 to place limits on oil production, in order to maintain earnings for producers.
The US is also looking at relaxing Venezuela's oil sanctions. It used to be a key US oil supplier, but recently Venezuela has largely been selling its oil to China.The US is also looking at relaxing Venezuela's oil sanctions. It used to be a key US oil supplier, but recently Venezuela has largely been selling its oil to China.
What would happen if Russian gas stopped flowing into Western Europe?What would happen if Russian gas stopped flowing into Western Europe?
Heating prices - which are already high - would increase even more.Heating prices - which are already high - would increase even more.
Russian gas accounts for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports.Russian gas accounts for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports.
If this dried up, Italy and Germany would be especially vulnerable.If this dried up, Italy and Germany would be especially vulnerable.
Europe could turn to existing gas exporters such Qatar, Algeria or Nigeria, but there are practical obstacles to quickly expanding production.Europe could turn to existing gas exporters such Qatar, Algeria or Nigeria, but there are practical obstacles to quickly expanding production.
Russia only provides about 5% of the UK's gas supplies, and the US doesn't import any Russian gas.Russia only provides about 5% of the UK's gas supplies, and the US doesn't import any Russian gas.
Gas prices in Europe, the UK (and to a lesser extent, the US) jumped significantly after the invasion, due to worries about supply shortages. But they have now swiftly fallen back as Ukraine and Russia hold more peace talks. Supply from Russia remains at stable seasonal levels, and demand may also ease because of milder weather. Gas prices in Europe, the UK (and to a lesser extent, the US) jumped significantly after the invasion, due to worries about supply shortages, although they then fell back.
Could alternatives to Russian gas be found?Could alternatives to Russian gas be found?
Not very easily. The US has agreed to ship an additional 15 billion cubic metres of liquified natural gas (LNG) to Europe by the end of this year.
The aim is to supply 50 billion cubic metres per year of additional gas until at least 2030.
But energy policy research analyst Ben McWilliams says it's not very easy to substitute the gas that flows from Russia.
"It's harder to substitute gas because we have these big pipes that are taking Russian gas to Europe," says Mr McWilliams."It's harder to substitute gas because we have these big pipes that are taking Russian gas to Europe," says Mr McWilliams.
The European think tank Bruegel predicts that if Russia were to stop gas supplies to Europe, then Europe could possibly import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US. Europe could also ramp up the use of other energy sources, but doing so is not quick or easy.
It could also ramp up the use of other energy sources, but doing so is not quick or easy.
The EU hopes to massively boost its use of renewable energy, including wind powerThe EU hopes to massively boost its use of renewable energy, including wind power
"Renewables take time to roll out so in the short term this is not a solution," says research analyst Simone Tagliapietra."Renewables take time to roll out so in the short term this is not a solution," says research analyst Simone Tagliapietra.
"So for next winter - what can make a difference is fuel switching such as opening up coal-fired power plants, as Italy and Germany have plans to do in case of an emergency.""So for next winter - what can make a difference is fuel switching such as opening up coal-fired power plants, as Italy and Germany have plans to do in case of an emergency."
The EU has proposed a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels before 2030 - including measures to diversify gas supplies and replace gas in heating and power generation.The EU has proposed a plan to make Europe independent from Russian fossil fuels before 2030 - including measures to diversify gas supplies and replace gas in heating and power generation.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Ukraine crisisThe Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the Ukraine crisis
IEA: Green energy needed to avoid turbulent pricesIEA: Green energy needed to avoid turbulent prices
What will happen to my heating and fuel bills?What will happen to my heating and fuel bills?
Consumers will face rising energy and fuel bills as a result of this war.Consumers will face rising energy and fuel bills as a result of this war.
In the UK, household energy bills have been kept in check by an energy price cap.In the UK, household energy bills have been kept in check by an energy price cap.
But bills will rise by £700 to about £2,000 in April when the cap is increased. They are expected to reach about £3,000 when the cap is increased again this autumn.But bills will rise by £700 to about £2,000 in April when the cap is increased. They are expected to reach about £3,000 when the cap is increased again this autumn.
UK petrol and diesel prices have also soared, and while prices that suppliers pay have fallen back, this has not yet fed through to prices that motorists pay in petrol stations. UK petrol and diesel prices have also soared, and the government has now announced a cut in fuel duty as motorists struggle with record prices.
Heating bills are set to rise sharply this year in the UKHeating bills are set to rise sharply this year in the UK
"I think if we're in a world where Russian oil and gas stop flowing to Europe then we're going to need rationing-style measures," says Mr McWilliams."I think if we're in a world where Russian oil and gas stop flowing to Europe then we're going to need rationing-style measures," says Mr McWilliams.
"Part of the conversation now is, can we tell households to turn their thermostats down one degree, which can save a significant chunk of gas.""Part of the conversation now is, can we tell households to turn their thermostats down one degree, which can save a significant chunk of gas."
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