This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It will not be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/1/hi/sci/tech/8020573.stm

The article has changed 4 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
In search of forestry’s El Dorado In search of forestry’s El Dorado
(about 2 hours later)
VIEWPOINT Andrew MitchellVIEWPOINT Andrew Mitchell
The world's tropical forests face the double challenge of climate change and deforestation, says Andrew Mitchell. In this week's Green Room, he explains why he is not giving up on the "impossible dream" of convincing governments that these trees are worth more alive than dead.The world's tropical forests face the double challenge of climate change and deforestation, says Andrew Mitchell. In this week's Green Room, he explains why he is not giving up on the "impossible dream" of convincing governments that these trees are worth more alive than dead.
Paying a premium to prevent the loss of the Amazon could be one of the best insurance policies planet Earth has on offerPaying a premium to prevent the loss of the Amazon could be one of the best insurance policies planet Earth has on offer
Rumour has it that Brad Pitt is going into the Amazon.Rumour has it that Brad Pitt is going into the Amazon.
He will play out the story of an enigmatic explorer in search of his personal El Dorado.He will play out the story of an enigmatic explorer in search of his personal El Dorado.
The explorer in question was Colonel Percy Fawcett, a highly resilient English surveyor who set off almost 85 years ago on his final expedition into the Amazon.The explorer in question was Colonel Percy Fawcett, a highly resilient English surveyor who set off almost 85 years ago on his final expedition into the Amazon.
Fawcett, a celebrated veteran of many journeys into the unknown, secretly believed he had discovered scientific evidence of a lost civilisation within the vastness of what today is known as the Xingu, in north-eastern Brazil.Fawcett, a celebrated veteran of many journeys into the unknown, secretly believed he had discovered scientific evidence of a lost civilisation within the vastness of what today is known as the Xingu, in north-eastern Brazil.
Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, he remained resolute and journeyed repeatedly into the forest, determined to find it.Despite mounting evidence to the contrary, he remained resolute and journeyed repeatedly into the forest, determined to find it.
Newspapers published despatches detailing his quest for many months, but then all news ceased.Newspapers published despatches detailing his quest for many months, but then all news ceased.
Like Livingstone 50 years before him, Fawcett had vanished into a dark continent; only this time, no-one ever found him.Like Livingstone 50 years before him, Fawcett had vanished into a dark continent; only this time, no-one ever found him.
'Impossible dream''Impossible dream'
After three decades at the conservation frontline, much of it now encased in concrete jungles searching for a seemingly impossible solution to inexorable rainforest destruction, I am beginning to feel a little bit like Percy Fawcett.After three decades at the conservation frontline, much of it now encased in concrete jungles searching for a seemingly impossible solution to inexorable rainforest destruction, I am beginning to feel a little bit like Percy Fawcett.
Perhaps I am on the trail of an impossible dream.Perhaps I am on the trail of an impossible dream.
Fawcett gave his elusive goal the cryptic name of "Z".Fawcett gave his elusive goal the cryptic name of "Z".
The same could equally apply to the El Dorado that I and many others have been searching for: an economic argument to convince governments that the standing rainforest could be worth more alive than dead.The same could equally apply to the El Dorado that I and many others have been searching for: an economic argument to convince governments that the standing rainforest could be worth more alive than dead.
Key role of forests 'may be lost'Key role of forests 'may be lost'
The fact that tropical forests continue to go up in flames, contributing seven billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually (more than all the world's cars, ships and planes), suggests that my Amazonian "Z" may not exist.The fact that tropical forests continue to go up in flames, contributing seven billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere annually (more than all the world's cars, ships and planes), suggests that my Amazonian "Z" may not exist.
Unless, that is, a completely new way to discover it exists.Unless, that is, a completely new way to discover it exists.
A clutch of events last week offer several apparently contradictory clues as to how my El Dorado might be found.A clutch of events last week offer several apparently contradictory clues as to how my El Dorado might be found.
At the UN Forum on Forests (UNFF), currently in session in New York, the International Union of Forest Research Organisations (IUFRO) released a report on Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change.At the UN Forum on Forests (UNFF), currently in session in New York, the International Union of Forest Research Organisations (IUFRO) released a report on Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change.
It contained the projection that rising global temperatures may condemn forests over the next century to become fire-strewn savannahs, whatever efforts governments may take to conserve them.It contained the projection that rising global temperatures may condemn forests over the next century to become fire-strewn savannahs, whatever efforts governments may take to conserve them.
This resonates with the finding, recently published in the journal Science, that the Amazon's trees capture a whopping two billion tonnes of CO2 annually; but that during the devastating Amazon drought of 2005, they released five billion tonnes back out again.This resonates with the finding, recently published in the journal Science, that the Amazon's trees capture a whopping two billion tonnes of CO2 annually; but that during the devastating Amazon drought of 2005, they released five billion tonnes back out again.
Some journalists have asked in response: "What's the point in saving the Amazon, if it's doomed anyway?"Some journalists have asked in response: "What's the point in saving the Amazon, if it's doomed anyway?"
Our common reaction in the face of these uncertainties is to believe that the risks of doing nothing are less than any remedial action we could take.Our common reaction in the face of these uncertainties is to believe that the risks of doing nothing are less than any remedial action we could take.
In this case, the reverse is almost certainly true.In this case, the reverse is almost certainly true.
Take coverTake cover
Oliver Phillips - the lead author of the Science paper - Yadvinder Malhi of Oxford University, I and others have indicated that halting deforestation may increase the forest's resilience to climate change.Oliver Phillips - the lead author of the Science paper - Yadvinder Malhi of Oxford University, I and others have indicated that halting deforestation may increase the forest's resilience to climate change.
So, my view is that far from reducing efforts to halt deforestation, we should redouble them.So, my view is that far from reducing efforts to halt deforestation, we should redouble them.
Let me put it another way: if a person has malaria and you want to save their life by keeping their temperature down, surely the worst way to do it is to keep kicking them in the stomach or even amputating their legs.Let me put it another way: if a person has malaria and you want to save their life by keeping their temperature down, surely the worst way to do it is to keep kicking them in the stomach or even amputating their legs.
At the Summit of the Americas last week in Trinidad, a Blueprint for a Sustainable Energy Partnership for the Americas was presented to the many heads of state who attended the summit.At the Summit of the Americas last week in Trinidad, a Blueprint for a Sustainable Energy Partnership for the Americas was presented to the many heads of state who attended the summit.
If you were in charge of a departing flight in which there was a 10% chance of the aircraft crashing, would you recommend that everyone happily remain in their seats whilst an argument ensued over probabilities?If you were in charge of a departing flight in which there was a 10% chance of the aircraft crashing, would you recommend that everyone happily remain in their seats whilst an argument ensued over probabilities?
One of its three components was a new "vision for the Amazon". But what has the Amazon got to do with energy?One of its three components was a new "vision for the Amazon". But what has the Amazon got to do with energy?
Brazil is a leader in green power, with 40% of its cars being run on bioethanol from sugarcane and 70% of its electricity sourced from hydropower.Brazil is a leader in green power, with 40% of its cars being run on bioethanol from sugarcane and 70% of its electricity sourced from hydropower.
Even in the Sao Paulo hotel where I am writing this, lights in the corridor only come on when I walk through.Even in the Sao Paulo hotel where I am writing this, lights in the corridor only come on when I walk through.
The connection between energy and the Amazon is water.The connection between energy and the Amazon is water.
The evapotranspiration of the Amazon's trees, which generates billions of tonnes of water each day, may significantly underpin food and energy security in the region.The evapotranspiration of the Amazon's trees, which generates billions of tonnes of water each day, may significantly underpin food and energy security in the region.
Dr Jose Marengo, a scientist at Brazil's space research agency (INPE), has postulated that a proportion of this moisture is carried south on a low-level atmospheric jet stream across southern Brazil and down to the La Plata Basin.Dr Jose Marengo, a scientist at Brazil's space research agency (INPE), has postulated that a proportion of this moisture is carried south on a low-level atmospheric jet stream across southern Brazil and down to the La Plata Basin.
If so, this vast volume of water helps sustain a trillion dollar agricultural industry, feeds hydropower, and could prove to be essential to Brazil's booming biofuel industry.If so, this vast volume of water helps sustain a trillion dollar agricultural industry, feeds hydropower, and could prove to be essential to Brazil's booming biofuel industry.
It seems to me that a new way of looking at the Amazon is to consider it as a locally owned "eco-utility", which is providing ecosystem services across regional and global distances that currently no-one pays for.It seems to me that a new way of looking at the Amazon is to consider it as a locally owned "eco-utility", which is providing ecosystem services across regional and global distances that currently no-one pays for.
It is likely that these services are potentially worth a great deal to those who deliver them and to businesses whose prosperity depends on them.It is likely that these services are potentially worth a great deal to those who deliver them and to businesses whose prosperity depends on them.
A 10% fall in rainfall over time - less than some conservative predictions - could deliver a 40% drop in river flow, for example.A 10% fall in rainfall over time - less than some conservative predictions - could deliver a 40% drop in river flow, for example.
Perversely, beneficiaries such as Brazilian beef and soy farmers are at the same time potentially undermining their future success. through their expansion into the forest.Perversely, beneficiaries such as Brazilian beef and soy farmers are at the same time potentially undermining their future success. through their expansion into the forest.
An international bank investing in agriculture and hydropower in the region might legitimately ask if the former investment is, in fact, weakening the latter.An international bank investing in agriculture and hydropower in the region might legitimately ask if the former investment is, in fact, weakening the latter.
Could the beneficiaries therefore be persuaded to pay a tax to maintain the services?Could the beneficiaries therefore be persuaded to pay a tax to maintain the services?
Doing so might make the Amazon worth more standing up than cut down. This would help sustain global food and energy security, worth billions to national economies.Doing so might make the Amazon worth more standing up than cut down. This would help sustain global food and energy security, worth billions to national economies.
Hidden valueHidden value
The question that businesses and policymakers will want answered is whether continued deforestation could make the giant soy fields of Mato Grosso dry up or the lights go out in Buenos Aires.The question that businesses and policymakers will want answered is whether continued deforestation could make the giant soy fields of Mato Grosso dry up or the lights go out in Buenos Aires.
At INPE last week, I was privileged to join some of the region's leading scientists, economists and community development specialists to brainstorm the idea of valuing the Amazon as an "eco-utility".At INPE last week, I was privileged to join some of the region's leading scientists, economists and community development specialists to brainstorm the idea of valuing the Amazon as an "eco-utility".
The meeting was funded under an innovative new UK government programme called Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation (ESPA).The meeting was funded under an innovative new UK government programme called Ecosystem Services and Poverty Alleviation (ESPA).
We concluded that we can't really be sure where the rain goes, and argued over its possible reduction, ranging from a lot to a little.We concluded that we can't really be sure where the rain goes, and argued over its possible reduction, ranging from a lot to a little.
What incentive system could reduce the loss of tropical forests?What incentive system could reduce the loss of tropical forests?
Yet we were convinced that a new positive incentive system was needed, and that a year of effort lay ahead to figure out how it might work.Yet we were convinced that a new positive incentive system was needed, and that a year of effort lay ahead to figure out how it might work.
Our scientific caution is understandable; but for a policymaker, is it really the point?Our scientific caution is understandable; but for a policymaker, is it really the point?
If you were in charge of a departing flight in which the captain announced the destination was uncertain but the engineer said there was a 10% chance of the aircraft crashing, would you recommend that everyone happily remain in their seats whilst an argument ensued over probabilities?If you were in charge of a departing flight in which the captain announced the destination was uncertain but the engineer said there was a 10% chance of the aircraft crashing, would you recommend that everyone happily remain in their seats whilst an argument ensued over probabilities?
I believe the credit crunch, climate change, and consumer appetites are creating a crucial tipping point in this historical debate, which will determine how the world's political process deals with the erosion one of the greatest natural capital assets on Earth.I believe the credit crunch, climate change, and consumer appetites are creating a crucial tipping point in this historical debate, which will determine how the world's political process deals with the erosion one of the greatest natural capital assets on Earth.
If I can echo Einstein: it is unlikely that Amazonian nations will be able to solve this problem with the same thinking that caused it.If I can echo Einstein: it is unlikely that Amazonian nations will be able to solve this problem with the same thinking that caused it.
Although the Amazon belongs to no-one else but these nations and their people, how it fares affects us all, and so is a scientific, political and economic intelligence test for everyone.Although the Amazon belongs to no-one else but these nations and their people, how it fares affects us all, and so is a scientific, political and economic intelligence test for everyone.
Fawcett's ecological ignorance hid the Amazon's true value, which was all around him.Fawcett's ecological ignorance hid the Amazon's true value, which was all around him.
His El Dorado exists today as the vast Xingu Reserve, a land of forests quietly maintaining our resilience because the indigenous communities have maintained theirs.His El Dorado exists today as the vast Xingu Reserve, a land of forests quietly maintaining our resilience because the indigenous communities have maintained theirs.
But will the forests Fawcett once journeyed through disappear?But will the forests Fawcett once journeyed through disappear?
Will my "Z" in the Amazon become a romantic metaphor for an ineffective environmental Zeitgeist?Will my "Z" in the Amazon become a romantic metaphor for an ineffective environmental Zeitgeist?
I do not know; but expecting science to offer a certainty that it can never deliver excuses inaction and stokes risk.I do not know; but expecting science to offer a certainty that it can never deliver excuses inaction and stokes risk.
Who among us has refused to buy insurance because we cannot know accurately when our house will burn down or exactly when our car will be stolen?Who among us has refused to buy insurance because we cannot know accurately when our house will burn down or exactly when our car will be stolen?
Paying a premium to prevent the loss of the Amazon could be one of the best insurance policies planet Earth has on offer.Paying a premium to prevent the loss of the Amazon could be one of the best insurance policies planet Earth has on offer.
Andrew Mitchell is founder and director of the Global Canopy ProgrammeAndrew Mitchell is founder and director of the Global Canopy Programme
The Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News websiteThe Green Room is a series of opinion articles on environmental topics running weekly on the BBC News website
Do you agree with Andrew Mitchell? Are tropical forests worth more alive than dead? Are you hopeful that the international community will be able to find a way to stop deforestation? Or is the idea that we can halt the demise of the world's forests an impossible dream?Do you agree with Andrew Mitchell? Are tropical forests worth more alive than dead? Are you hopeful that the international community will be able to find a way to stop deforestation? Or is the idea that we can halt the demise of the world's forests an impossible dream?
Someone should take the governments which are still allowing un-sustainable deforestation to Easter Island. This little island we all know was once covered with trees, and thus a thriving population. What they failed to realise was that once they had cut down all the trees their small civilisation would crumble. I hope we can realise it before all that is left is a few big stone heads?!Chris, Bristol
I think that the rain forest should be kept alive. Without out it some countrys acriculture and ecomomy could die with it. I dont think the people cutting the trees down realise what they are actualy doing.Anonumus, Aberdeen, Scotland
Of course the forests are necessary to preserve. Their biggest threat is agriculture. With business as usual and the human population set to reach 9 billion by 2050, the forests will be further decimated due to growing hunger in Third World countries. Developed countries will on the other hand defend their right to overconsume food calories.Tony, Christchurch, New Zealand
i have been against the destruction of the rainforests for many years .i have visited the amazon 12years ago and iwas amazed at its sheer beauty.i hve been fortunet to have been to many rainforest countries including borneo and to see the vast palm plantations is terrible .we should make goverments do more and ask them one simple question do they want there grandchildren to ask why did you do nothing to stop this .we are not just loosing the forests but tousands of species.people just dont seem to care because this is happening many miles away.we have got to do more aout impoting wood from these counties. i say save the rainforestsandrew kyle, leicestershire england
Tropical rainforests are an integral part of the biosphere, and have more effect on the climate than temperate forests. Their preservation is more important than arguing over CCS, which makes the view of eco-mentalists in the UK - who froth at the mouth over a couple of proposed coal-fired power stations - totally misplaced.David, Cheshire
Let's try to make the impossible dream came true. Giving up it's not an alternative.Griselda Hofer, Geneva
"Victor Gorshkov and Anastassia Makarieva of the St. Petersburg Nuclear Physics, have published a revolutionary theory that turns modern meteorology on its head, positing that forests-and their capacity for condensation-are actually the main driver of winds rather than temperature. While this model has widespread implications for numerous sciences, none of them are larger than the importance of conserving forests, which are shown to be crucial to 'pumping' precipitation from one place to another. The theory explains, among other mysteries, why deforestation around coastal regions tends to lead to drying in the interior". from Monganbay.com So, I guess the answer is "those who cut them do so at our global peril"Toni Massari, Bristol
I am very impressed by Andrew's work and hope that he is successful in finding a new way of valuing and protecting the world's forests. Matt Prescott, Oxford
It is, I believe, one of the most important tasks the international community has and I for one will ,after finishing my studies, try to help in this seemingly impossible task, however it has to be possible, so much depend on it.Mattias Olsson, Kristianstad Sweden
Send us your comments using the form below:Send us your comments using the form below:
The BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & ConditionsThe BBC may edit your comments and not all emails will be published. Your comments may be published on any BBC media worldwide. Terms & Conditions