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How well prepared is the world for flu? How well prepared is the world for flu?
(40 minutes later)
By Nick Triggle Health reporter, BBC News Nearly 150 countries have flu contingency plans in placeBy Nick Triggle Health reporter, BBC News Nearly 150 countries have flu contingency plans in place
Experts are adamant, the world has never been better prepared for a flu pandemic.Experts are adamant, the world has never been better prepared for a flu pandemic.
History tells us that there are global epidemics every 30 to 50 years.History tells us that there are global epidemics every 30 to 50 years.
And with the last one happening in the late 1960s, governments across the world have been on alert for the past decade.And with the last one happening in the late 1960s, governments across the world have been on alert for the past decade.
That moment could now be here with the World Health Organization describing the outbreak of swine flu as a major concern.That moment could now be here with the World Health Organization describing the outbreak of swine flu as a major concern.
Governments across the world have been revising and making new plans since the re-emergence of bird flu six years ago in south east Asia.Governments across the world have been revising and making new plans since the re-emergence of bird flu six years ago in south east Asia.
Nearly 150 countries are now known to have drawn up contingency plans covering everything from the response of health services to travel restrictions and international co-operation.Nearly 150 countries are now known to have drawn up contingency plans covering everything from the response of health services to travel restrictions and international co-operation.
In 2007, the International Health Regulations came into place compelling all 194 member states to respond to a "public health emergency of international concern".In 2007, the International Health Regulations came into place compelling all 194 member states to respond to a "public health emergency of international concern".
SurveillanceSurveillance
They are required to report results of surveillance activity to the WHO and open lines of communication with other governments.They are required to report results of surveillance activity to the WHO and open lines of communication with other governments.
This is deemed essential in providing good up-to-date information on which decisions can be based to control the spread of disease.This is deemed essential in providing good up-to-date information on which decisions can be based to control the spread of disease.
Delay in making the right decisions or even acting too hastily could be costly, WHO believes.Delay in making the right decisions or even acting too hastily could be costly, WHO believes.
As well as protecting health, the regulations have been drawn up to minimise the impact on global trade and movement.As well as protecting health, the regulations have been drawn up to minimise the impact on global trade and movement.
A worldwide flu pandemic, for example, could cost economies as much as $3 trillion.A worldwide flu pandemic, for example, could cost economies as much as $3 trillion.
It means the WHO feels confident enough to declare that the international community is better prepared than ever.It means the WHO feels confident enough to declare that the international community is better prepared than ever.
Keiji Fukuda, who is in charge of health security at WHO, said governments have responded responsibly by stockpiling drugs.Keiji Fukuda, who is in charge of health security at WHO, said governments have responded responsibly by stockpiling drugs.
He said: "I think for the immediate period I would say that we are much better off than we've been in the past."He said: "I think for the immediate period I would say that we are much better off than we've been in the past."
Because of global travel, a pandemic will get a foothold everywhere so what is important is that the plans that have been drawn up are followed Professor Stephen Field, of the Royal College of GPsBecause of global travel, a pandemic will get a foothold everywhere so what is important is that the plans that have been drawn up are followed Professor Stephen Field, of the Royal College of GPs
The WHO has praised the UK - along with France - for being the best prepared.The WHO has praised the UK - along with France - for being the best prepared.
More than 30m courses of anti-viral drugs have been bought - enough to treat half the population.More than 30m courses of anti-viral drugs have been bought - enough to treat half the population.
The drug is not a vaccine, but can lessen the symptoms and minimise spread of the virus.The drug is not a vaccine, but can lessen the symptoms and minimise spread of the virus.
The UK has also signed a deal with manufacturers to be one of the first in line for a vaccine - this can only be developed once scientists know what strain is behind a pandemic.The UK has also signed a deal with manufacturers to be one of the first in line for a vaccine - this can only be developed once scientists know what strain is behind a pandemic.
The influenza contingency plan was published in 2005 and includes a graduated series of public health measure to control a pandemic.The influenza contingency plan was published in 2005 and includes a graduated series of public health measure to control a pandemic.
The NHS and other parts of public sector have carried out exercises to test their preparedness, while the government has powers to impose travel restrictions and screening at ports and airports if necessary.The NHS and other parts of public sector have carried out exercises to test their preparedness, while the government has powers to impose travel restrictions and screening at ports and airports if necessary.
DoubtsDoubts
Professor Stephen Field, president of the Royal College of GPs, said: "The UK has done a really good job. But I would say lots of western governments have invested in this in recent years so there are good plans in place.Professor Stephen Field, president of the Royal College of GPs, said: "The UK has done a really good job. But I would say lots of western governments have invested in this in recent years so there are good plans in place.
"The fears over bird flu have really driven this."The fears over bird flu have really driven this.
"Because of global travel, a pandemic will get a foothold everywhere so what is important is that the plans that have been drawn up are followed.""Because of global travel, a pandemic will get a foothold everywhere so what is important is that the plans that have been drawn up are followed."
FLU PANDEMICS 1918: The Spanish flu pandemic remains the most devastating outbreak of modern times - infecting up to 40% of the world's population and killing more than 50m people, with young adults particularly badly affected 1957: Asian flu killed two million people. Caused by a human form of the virus, H2N2, combining with a mutated strain found in wild ducks. The elderly were particularly vulnerable 1968: An outbreak first detected in Hong Kong, and caused by a strain known as H3N2, killed up to one million people globally, with those over 65 most likely to die WHAT PLANS ARE IN PLACE? Action plans - Nearly 150 countries have flu contingency plans in place, covering everything from hospital and travel to international co-operationDrugs - Many government have also started stockpiling anti-viral drugs, which are not a vaccine but would lessen some of the symptoms. The UK has enough for half the populationInternational rules - Regulations have been drawn up covering surveillance reporting and communication. The aim is to ensure there is good information available on which decisions can be based
But despite the bullishness of many experts, there are still doubts this will happen.But despite the bullishness of many experts, there are still doubts this will happen.
At the end of last year, the United Nations produced a report warning while many countries had plans in place, too many had not been adequately tested.At the end of last year, the United Nations produced a report warning while many countries had plans in place, too many had not been adequately tested.
Again the UK was congratulated on its response, but just half of those with plans had tested them in the previous 12 months.Again the UK was congratulated on its response, but just half of those with plans had tested them in the previous 12 months.
Furthermore, just over a third had incorporated lessons from those exercises.Furthermore, just over a third had incorporated lessons from those exercises.
The UN report warned the "continuing lack of preparedness remained a cause for concern".The UN report warned the "continuing lack of preparedness remained a cause for concern".
It added: "It is not enough to have a written plan. You also have to check it, test it and make sure it works and then revise it on the basis of assimilation."It added: "It is not enough to have a written plan. You also have to check it, test it and make sure it works and then revise it on the basis of assimilation."
Poor surveillance and lab testing resources were also reported, particularly in Africa.Poor surveillance and lab testing resources were also reported, particularly in Africa.
A global fund has been set up with £3bn donated so far to help developing countries improve their systems, but that is still more than £1bn short of what is thought to be needed.
What seems certain is that for all the positive noises about preparedness, it will only be when a pandemic actually emerges will we know whether the groundwork has been done right.What seems certain is that for all the positive noises about preparedness, it will only be when a pandemic actually emerges will we know whether the groundwork has been done right.