This article is from the source 'bbc' and was first published or seen on . It will not be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/1/hi/sci/tech/8019940.stm

The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Climate cost models 'unhelpful' Climate cost models 'unhelpful'
(about 1 hour later)
The government is being misled on the impact of climate change by relying on "unhelpful" economic models, the former UK chief scientific advisor has warned.The government is being misled on the impact of climate change by relying on "unhelpful" economic models, the former UK chief scientific advisor has warned.
Professor Sir David King said the 2006 Stern Review underestimated the true economic cost of tackling the problem.Professor Sir David King said the 2006 Stern Review underestimated the true economic cost of tackling the problem.
No model had predicted the current downturn, and none could cope with the scale of problems the world could face due to climate change, said Prof King.No model had predicted the current downturn, and none could cope with the scale of problems the world could face due to climate change, said Prof King.
Other experts have previously said the review underestimated the costs.Other experts have previously said the review underestimated the costs.
Prof King, who is now director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said he questioned the value of what he described as the "simple models" in the review.Prof King, who is now director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said he questioned the value of what he described as the "simple models" in the review.
Such models are used when the government undertakes the cost-benefit exercises needed when a policy impacts on the environment.Such models are used when the government undertakes the cost-benefit exercises needed when a policy impacts on the environment.
We need to map out a future world that is safer place for our grandchildren Professor Sir David King FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME class="" href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/default.stm">More from Today programme
Prof King said those developed by Lord Stern and his team were misleading and underestimated the environmental impact of projects such as building a third runway at Heathrow airport, in London.Prof King said those developed by Lord Stern and his team were misleading and underestimated the environmental impact of projects such as building a third runway at Heathrow airport, in London.
He said that was because economic models were based on steady growth and did not fully take into account the costs of the catastrophic events likely to arise as a result of climate change, said BBC Science correspondent Pallab Ghosh.He said that was because economic models were based on steady growth and did not fully take into account the costs of the catastrophic events likely to arise as a result of climate change, said BBC Science correspondent Pallab Ghosh.
Focusing on such economic models could lead to poor investments by government and businesses, he said.Focusing on such economic models could lead to poor investments by government and businesses, he said.
Large-scale migrationLarge-scale migration
The Stern Review said the world had to act now on climate change or face devastating economic consequences.The Stern Review said the world had to act now on climate change or face devastating economic consequences.
Sir Nicholas Stern, a former World Bank chief economist, said at worst global warming could shrink the world economy by 20%.Sir Nicholas Stern, a former World Bank chief economist, said at worst global warming could shrink the world economy by 20%.
But taking immediate steps could limit the damage to the world economy to 1% of total gross domestic product (GDP), he said.But taking immediate steps could limit the damage to the world economy to 1% of total gross domestic product (GDP), he said.
He argued that spending large sums of money on measures to reduce carbon emissions would bring dividends on a huge scale.He argued that spending large sums of money on measures to reduce carbon emissions would bring dividends on a huge scale.
The report was enthusiastically backed by the UK government, with then prime minister Tony Blair calling it "the most important report on the future ever published by this government".The report was enthusiastically backed by the UK government, with then prime minister Tony Blair calling it "the most important report on the future ever published by this government".
But some academic experts said although they were convinced human-induced climate change was real and action was needed, the economics were flawed.But some academic experts said although they were convinced human-induced climate change was real and action was needed, the economics were flawed.
Prof King said there was little point in trying to predict the exact costs of events such as rising populations, rising sea levels and the drop in available land, changes in rainfall patterns and increased desertification, and the resulting large-scale migration.Prof King said there was little point in trying to predict the exact costs of events such as rising populations, rising sea levels and the drop in available land, changes in rainfall patterns and increased desertification, and the resulting large-scale migration.
He told BBC Radio Four's Today programme it was more important to have teams of scientists predicting the impact, and experts such as engineers working out solutions.He told BBC Radio Four's Today programme it was more important to have teams of scientists predicting the impact, and experts such as engineers working out solutions.
"We need to map out a future world that is a safer place for our grandchildren," he said."We need to map out a future world that is a safer place for our grandchildren," he said.
In response, Dr Simon Dietz, deputy director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and a member of the former Stern Review team, said: "Economic models of the impact of climate change, like scientific models of climate change, have both strengths and limitations.
He added. "As Nicholas Stern has highlighted, it has become apparent that the risks and potential costs of the impacts of climate change are even greater than we originally recognised."
"Future modelling will take that into account," he said.