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Glimmer of hope for Scots economy Glimmer of hope for Scots economy
(about 9 hours later)
The recession's grip on the Scottish economy may ease by the start of next year, a business survey has found. The recession's grip on the Scottish economy may ease by the start of next year, a business survey has suggested.
The Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC) study said business confidence was continuing to deteriorate, with weak demand damaging firms.The Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC) study said business confidence was continuing to deteriorate, with weak demand damaging firms.
But it concluded there was hope for some recovery in manufacturing and tourism, while exports were expected to pick up in the first quarter of 2010.But it concluded there was hope for some recovery in manufacturing and tourism, while exports were expected to pick up in the first quarter of 2010.
Almost 300 businesses responded to the survey.Almost 300 businesses responded to the survey.
The research was carried out in March and early April by Strathclyde University's Fraser of Allander Institute in collaboration with SCC.The research was carried out in March and early April by Strathclyde University's Fraser of Allander Institute in collaboration with SCC.
It showed that trading remained weak in all sectors in the first three months of this year.It showed that trading remained weak in all sectors in the first three months of this year.
A closer examination of the figures does reveal that in some sectors the rate of decline is easing, with a small number of businesses performing well Liz CameronScottish Chambers of CommerceA closer examination of the figures does reveal that in some sectors the rate of decline is easing, with a small number of businesses performing well Liz CameronScottish Chambers of Commerce
Although in manufacturing the decline in export orders eased, the net trends in new, Scottish and rest-of-UK orders weakened further.Although in manufacturing the decline in export orders eased, the net trends in new, Scottish and rest-of-UK orders weakened further.
Manufacturing firms were operating at an average of 66.4% of capacity - about six percentage points lower than the previous quarter.Manufacturing firms were operating at an average of 66.4% of capacity - about six percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
However a net balance of firms now anticipate a rising trend in export orders by early 2009.However a net balance of firms now anticipate a rising trend in export orders by early 2009.
The survey report said: "There are some signs that the rate of decline in orders/demand may ease slightly in the second quarter.The survey report said: "There are some signs that the rate of decline in orders/demand may ease slightly in the second quarter.
"Over the next year more than 60% of manufacturing respondents anticipate declining trends in total Scottish/rest-of-UK orders but nevertheless positive trends in export orders are forecast by the first quarter of 2010.""Over the next year more than 60% of manufacturing respondents anticipate declining trends in total Scottish/rest-of-UK orders but nevertheless positive trends in export orders are forecast by the first quarter of 2010."
In construction the average capacity used in the first quarter declined three percentage points to 69%.In construction the average capacity used in the first quarter declined three percentage points to 69%.
In the retail sector two thirds of respondents reported declining sales trends and three quarters expect sales to fall further in the second quarter of 2009.In the retail sector two thirds of respondents reported declining sales trends and three quarters expect sales to fall further in the second quarter of 2009.
The value of total new sales fell for 74% of firms and 72% expect a further decline during the three months to the end of June 2009.The value of total new sales fell for 74% of firms and 72% expect a further decline during the three months to the end of June 2009.
Three quarters of manufacturing and construction and over 80% of wholesale and retail respondents said they were less confident than one year ago.Three quarters of manufacturing and construction and over 80% of wholesale and retail respondents said they were less confident than one year ago.
'Modest rise''Modest rise'
However business confidence in wholesale and retail distribution and in tourism in the first quarter of 2009 was less depressed than in the fourth quarter of 2008.However business confidence in wholesale and retail distribution and in tourism in the first quarter of 2009 was less depressed than in the fourth quarter of 2008.
In the tourism sector the net trends in demand were weaker than in previous first quarters, though average occupancy at 54% was similar to previous first quarters.In the tourism sector the net trends in demand were weaker than in previous first quarters, though average occupancy at 54% was similar to previous first quarters.
All sectors reported declining net trends in employment and hours worked/overtime levels.All sectors reported declining net trends in employment and hours worked/overtime levels.
Liz Cameron, SCC's chief executive, said: "Scottish business confidence has been battered over the past year and our latest survey reveals that, on the surface, there seem to be few signs of improvement in the short term.Liz Cameron, SCC's chief executive, said: "Scottish business confidence has been battered over the past year and our latest survey reveals that, on the surface, there seem to be few signs of improvement in the short term.
"However in the midst of the current recession, we are all looking for signs of light at the end of the tunnel and a closer examination of the figures does reveal that in some sectors the rate of decline is easing, with a small number of businesses performing well against a challenging background."However in the midst of the current recession, we are all looking for signs of light at the end of the tunnel and a closer examination of the figures does reveal that in some sectors the rate of decline is easing, with a small number of businesses performing well against a challenging background.
"A positive feature is that Scottish manufacturers are anticipating a modest rise in export activity by this time next year, raising hopes that our exporters may be helping lead the Scottish economy from recession and into growth."A positive feature is that Scottish manufacturers are anticipating a modest rise in export activity by this time next year, raising hopes that our exporters may be helping lead the Scottish economy from recession and into growth.
"Similarly there is further potential for recovery in our tourist sector, where occupancy levels remain on a par with previous years and businesses are looking forward to increasing demand over the spring and summer in this Year of Homecoming.""Similarly there is further potential for recovery in our tourist sector, where occupancy levels remain on a par with previous years and businesses are looking forward to increasing demand over the spring and summer in this Year of Homecoming."