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Government borrowing 'to swell' Government borrowing 'to swell'
(30 minutes later)
The government has limited scope to implement its planned stimulus package as borrowing soars, according to a key economic think-tank.The government has limited scope to implement its planned stimulus package as borrowing soars, according to a key economic think-tank.
The Ernst & Young Item club forecast that net borrowing will rise to £180bn in the forthcoming tax year and will exceed the chancellor's own prediction. The Ernst & Young Item club forecasts that net borrowing will rise to £180bn in the forthcoming tax year and will exceed the chancellor's own prediction.
It said that public finance were deteriorating "at an alarming rate". It said that public finances were deteriorating "at an alarming rate".
It also called for a temporary cut in national insurance contributions to encourage businesses to hire staff.It also called for a temporary cut in national insurance contributions to encourage businesses to hire staff.
On Thursday, the IMF said that the UK would to have to borrow 11% of national income to battle the financial crisis - the highest of the G7 nations. On Thursday, the IMF said that the UK would have to borrow 11% of national income to battle the financial crisis - the highest of the G7 nations.
The Item club says that figure was overly optimistic. It forecasts borrowing to stand at 12.6% of GDP next year and that the UK would be running deficits over the next decade.The Item club says that figure was overly optimistic. It forecasts borrowing to stand at 12.6% of GDP next year and that the UK would be running deficits over the next decade.
Borrowing bingeBorrowing binge
The Item club, which uses similar methodology as the Treasury forecasters, said that the chancellor's own predictions in last October's pre-budget report had been overtaken by events and total borrowing would be £270bn higher than anticipated. The Item club, which uses similar methodology as the Treasury forecasters, said that predictions by the chancellor, Alistair Darling, in last October's pre-budget report had been overtaken by events and total borrowing would be £270bn higher than anticipated.
The forecasters blamed the parlous public finances on falling tax revenues as a result of lower consumer spending and rising unemployment.The forecasters blamed the parlous public finances on falling tax revenues as a result of lower consumer spending and rising unemployment.
"The chancellor must provide some credible forecasts for the public finances and present an unambiguous medium-term plan for restoring them to health, " said Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Item club."The chancellor must provide some credible forecasts for the public finances and present an unambiguous medium-term plan for restoring them to health, " said Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Item club.