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| In the red corner, Scargill. In the blue, Thatcher | In the red corner, Scargill. In the blue, Thatcher |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| GO FIGURE Different ways of seeing stats The miners' strike was an epic industrial dispute, which left the coal industry bloodied and broken. But its output dropped before the Iron Lady became PM, says Michael Blastland in his regular column. | GO FIGURE Different ways of seeing stats The miners' strike was an epic industrial dispute, which left the coal industry bloodied and broken. But its output dropped before the Iron Lady became PM, says Michael Blastland in his regular column. |
| It's the 25th anniversary of the 1984 miners' strike, an event that's become a political epoch, remembered as knock-down fight to the finish, Thatcher v Scargill. | It's the 25th anniversary of the 1984 miners' strike, an event that's become a political epoch, remembered as knock-down fight to the finish, Thatcher v Scargill. |
| So here's a puzzle. | So here's a puzzle. |
| Each of the four lines in the chart below shows UK mining output over four 11-year periods: 11 years before Margaret Thatcher; 11 years after; 11 year of New Labour; and 11 years of Thatcher herself. | Each of the four lines in the chart below shows UK mining output over four 11-year periods: 11 years before Margaret Thatcher; 11 years after; 11 year of New Labour; and 11 years of Thatcher herself. |
| Note that the chart smoothes out the strikes of 1972, 74 and 84 to make clearer the general trends. | Note that the chart smoothes out the strikes of 1972, 74 and 84 to make clearer the general trends. |
| Surprised? I was. The story I thought I knew was that the Prime Minister's defeat of Arthur Scargill and the miners led uniquely to the devastation/streamlining (delete according to political preference) of the industry in a resolute search for market efficiency/settling of scores (ditto). | Surprised? I was. The story I thought I knew was that the Prime Minister's defeat of Arthur Scargill and the miners led uniquely to the devastation/streamlining (delete according to political preference) of the industry in a resolute search for market efficiency/settling of scores (ditto). |
| Once powerful enough to bring down a government, as a political force the miners were humbled by the Iron Lady. | Once powerful enough to bring down a government, as a political force the miners were humbled by the Iron Lady. |
| All of which might or might not be true. We leave it to our readers to judge. But the figures aren't exactly a perfect fit for either side in the fatal-confrontation story. How do we interpret this data? | All of which might or might not be true. We leave it to our readers to judge. But the figures aren't exactly a perfect fit for either side in the fatal-confrontation story. How do we interpret this data? |
| The decline in output, in percentages:
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| Here's the whole period as recorded in the Office for National Statistics production industries data, from just before the peak in post-war output in the mid-1950s until 2008 (2003 = 100). Again, the strike years of 1972, 74 and 84 have been smoothed because they cause a big, one-year drop in the size of the industry, and we want to see the trend of permanent change, not temporary change. Mrs Thatcher's 11 years are marked. | Here's the whole period as recorded in the Office for National Statistics production industries data, from just before the peak in post-war output in the mid-1950s until 2008 (2003 = 100). Again, the strike years of 1972, 74 and 84 have been smoothed because they cause a big, one-year drop in the size of the industry, and we want to see the trend of permanent change, not temporary change. Mrs Thatcher's 11 years are marked. |
| The miners are often said to have ended the Heath government in 1974, and used their muscle to force higher wages. But is that the best measure of their power when they had been unable to prevent their industry halving in 15 years - before Margaret Thatcher even took office? The final shift at Stillingfleet Colliery | The miners are often said to have ended the Heath government in 1974, and used their muscle to force higher wages. But is that the best measure of their power when they had been unable to prevent their industry halving in 15 years - before Margaret Thatcher even took office? The final shift at Stillingfleet Colliery |
| Of course, there are other ways to measure an industry than output: the number of miners employed, for example. But that chart looks much like this one. Half a million mining jobs were lost in the 30 years before Mrs Thatcher, 70% of the workforce. How radically different to what went before was the challenge from Mrs Thatcher herself? | Of course, there are other ways to measure an industry than output: the number of miners employed, for example. But that chart looks much like this one. Half a million mining jobs were lost in the 30 years before Mrs Thatcher, 70% of the workforce. How radically different to what went before was the challenge from Mrs Thatcher herself? |
| We could also look (see last week's column on beer and bacon) at the absolute numbers, not just the percentage changes in output. This shows that, under Mrs Thatcher, output fell by roughly 30m tons compared with a fall of about 50m tons in the period before, about 60m in the period after, and about 30m in the past 11 years, when there wasn't much left to lose. | We could also look (see last week's column on beer and bacon) at the absolute numbers, not just the percentage changes in output. This shows that, under Mrs Thatcher, output fell by roughly 30m tons compared with a fall of about 50m tons in the period before, about 60m in the period after, and about 30m in the past 11 years, when there wasn't much left to lose. |
| The steepest falls were arguably the 1960s and early 1990s during privatisation. It could be said Thatcher's legacy made privatisation possible, though even here it might be argued this simply quickened a trend that soon slowed again and returned to normal - if we can call such a 50-year collapse "normal". Clashes like the Battle of Orgreave scarred communities | The steepest falls were arguably the 1960s and early 1990s during privatisation. It could be said Thatcher's legacy made privatisation possible, though even here it might be argued this simply quickened a trend that soon slowed again and returned to normal - if we can call such a 50-year collapse "normal". Clashes like the Battle of Orgreave scarred communities |
| It's true there are also other ways to measure the impact of an event than with statistics. Sometimes it's the psychological change that matters. | It's true there are also other ways to measure the impact of an event than with statistics. Sometimes it's the psychological change that matters. |
| So none of this is to suggest that the miners' strike wasn't a dramatic political moment, terrible for many who endured it, and a powerful influence on the trade unions, for example. Those arguments could still be made. | So none of this is to suggest that the miners' strike wasn't a dramatic political moment, terrible for many who endured it, and a powerful influence on the trade unions, for example. Those arguments could still be made. |
| But as the battle enters folklore, have we characterised properly the landscape in which it was fought, both before and after? Suggestions welcome, using the form below. | But as the battle enters folklore, have we characterised properly the landscape in which it was fought, both before and after? Suggestions welcome, using the form below. |
| • Scared witless, calmed, unnerved, reassured⦠risk can turn you upside down and back again depending entirely on how it's presented. | • Scared witless, calmed, unnerved, reassured⦠risk can turn you upside down and back again depending entirely on how it's presented. |
| Over at Understanding Uncertainty, the project of Cambridge University's new initiative on the public understanding of risk, there's a brilliant tool for visualising the different ways that a risk can affect us. The clot-busting drugs statins, for example. What chance of a heart attack if you don't take them? What chance if you do? Enlarge Image | Over at Understanding Uncertainty, the project of Cambridge University's new initiative on the public understanding of risk, there's a brilliant tool for visualising the different ways that a risk can affect us. The clot-busting drugs statins, for example. What chance of a heart attack if you don't take them? What chance if you do? Enlarge Image |
| They break it down using emoticons. Here's a screen grab - one of the many visualisations available - to whet the appetite. | |
| I'm told that you'll soon be able to embed the whole thing in your own website. Meanwhile, it allows you to animate the numbers with just a click, turn the risk this way and that, to see how bad, or good, it can be made to look, a trick worth knowing in a sometimes-scary world. | I'm told that you'll soon be able to embed the whole thing in your own website. Meanwhile, it allows you to animate the numbers with just a click, turn the risk this way and that, to see how bad, or good, it can be made to look, a trick worth knowing in a sometimes-scary world. |
| It appeared, coincidentally, the same day as last week's Go Figure introduced its own Risk-O-Meter. (We must look at coincidence some time, don't you think?) | It appeared, coincidentally, the same day as last week's Go Figure introduced its own Risk-O-Meter. (We must look at coincidence some time, don't you think?) |
| Add your comments on this story, using the form below. | Add your comments on this story, using the form below. |