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Iraqis 'more upbeat about future' Iraqis 'more upbeat about future'
(20 minutes later)
Violence and insecurity are no longer the main concern of most Iraqis, for the first time since the 2003 US-led invasion, an opinion poll suggests.Violence and insecurity are no longer the main concern of most Iraqis, for the first time since the 2003 US-led invasion, an opinion poll suggests.
It says Iraqis are much more hopeful about the future and are increasingly pre-occupied with more conventional worries like the economy and jobs.It says Iraqis are much more hopeful about the future and are increasingly pre-occupied with more conventional worries like the economy and jobs.
But Iraqis remain unhappy about the role foreign powers play in their country, notably Iran, the US and UK.But Iraqis remain unhappy about the role foreign powers play in their country, notably Iran, the US and UK.
The survey was carried out for the BBC, ABC News and NHK in February.The survey was carried out for the BBC, ABC News and NHK in February.
A total of 2,228 Iraqis were questioned across all 18 provinces. The margin of error is 2.5%.A total of 2,228 Iraqis were questioned across all 18 provinces. The margin of error is 2.5%.
SecuritySecurity
The poll is the sixth in a series of surveys stretching back to March 2004 and shows a marked overall improvement in perceptions, the BBC's Adam Mynott says.The poll is the sixth in a series of surveys stretching back to March 2004 and shows a marked overall improvement in perceptions, the BBC's Adam Mynott says.
Its findings show striking shifts in opinion since the last poll in March 2008.Its findings show striking shifts in opinion since the last poll in March 2008.
On security, 85% of all respondents described the current situation as very good or quite good - up 23% on a year ago:On security, 85% of all respondents described the current situation as very good or quite good - up 23% on a year ago:
a total of 52% say security has improved over the last year, up 16% on March 2008
  • only 8% say it is worse - against 26% last year
  • 59% feel safe in their neighbourhoods, up 22% from 37% last time.
a total of 52% say security has improved over the last year, up 16% on March 2008
  • only 8% say it is worse - against 26% last year
  • 59% feel safe in their neighbourhoods, up 22% from 37% last time.
See poll results on security and democracySee poll results on security and democracy
Supplies improvingSupplies improving
The numbers of people who report direct experience of car bombs, suicide attacks, sectarian fighting, kidnappings and assassination in their areas are much lower than last year.The numbers of people who report direct experience of car bombs, suicide attacks, sectarian fighting, kidnappings and assassination in their areas are much lower than last year.
Iraq Poll 2009 Iraq Poll questions and answers in full [605KB] Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe Reader Download the reader here Confidence grows as fear ebbsIraq Poll 2009 Iraq Poll questions and answers in full [605KB] Most computers will open this document automatically, but you may need Adobe Reader Download the reader here Confidence grows as fear ebbs
Those who say their lives are going very well or quite well are now 65% of the total, up 9%. And there is a 14% increase - to 60% - of those who think things will be better in Iraq as a whole in a year from now.Those who say their lives are going very well or quite well are now 65% of the total, up 9%. And there is a 14% increase - to 60% - of those who think things will be better in Iraq as a whole in a year from now.
The survey shows that some aspects of everyday life are improving, too.The survey shows that some aspects of everyday life are improving, too.
The availability of power has been a major issue in the past six years, with only about 10% of the population saying in previous polls that they have had reliable supplies. In the latest poll, that figure has leapt to 37%.The availability of power has been a major issue in the past six years, with only about 10% of the population saying in previous polls that they have had reliable supplies. In the latest poll, that figure has leapt to 37%.
And the number of those who say that availability of fuel for cooking or driving is now very good or quite good has also shot up to 67%, a 48% rise on the 19% of March 2008. And the number of those who say that availability of fuel for cooking or driving is now very good or quite good has also shot up to 67%, a 48% rise on the 19% of March 2008.
Sunni shiftSunni shift
As with previous findings, it is possible to distinguish between the responses of Shias and Sunnis.As with previous findings, it is possible to distinguish between the responses of Shias and Sunnis.
All earlier polls have shown stark differences between them, with the Sunny minority profoundly more pessimistic than Shias about the current situation and Iraq's prospects. All earlier polls have shown stark differences between them, with the Sunni minority profoundly more pessimistic than Shias about the current situation and Iraq's prospects.
These differences persist, but the new poll poll shows a pronounced shift in Sunni opinion towards a more optimistic view:These differences persist, but the new poll poll shows a pronounced shift in Sunni opinion towards a more optimistic view:
  • overall, there is a 9% increase among those who think their lives are going very well or quite well (Shias +8%; Sunnis +16%)
  • 14% more think things will be better for Iraq in a year's time (Shias +13%; Sunnis +29%)
  • there is a 23% increase in those who say their local security situation is very/quite good (Shias +21%; Sunnis +32%)
  • 21% more support democracy as the preferred model of government for Iraq compared with a strong leader or Islamic state (Shias +21% , Sunnis +27%).
  • overall, there is a 9% increase among those who think their lives are going very well or quite well (Shias +8%; Sunnis +16%)
  • 14% more think things will be better for Iraq in a year's time (Shias +13%; Sunnis +29%)
  • there is a 23% increase in those who say their local security situation is very/quite good (Shias +21%; Sunnis +32%)
  • 21% more support democracy as the preferred model of government for Iraq compared with a strong leader or Islamic state (Shias +21% , Sunnis +27%).
Regional differencesRegional differences
Asked whether foreign countries are playing a positive or negative role in Iraq, Britain, the US and Iran get the most negative scores.Asked whether foreign countries are playing a positive or negative role in Iraq, Britain, the US and Iran get the most negative scores.
Overall, 59% of those questioned think Britain's role is negative, 22% positive; 64% say the US is negative, 18% positive; 68% view Iran negatively, 12% positively.Overall, 59% of those questioned think Britain's role is negative, 22% positive; 64% say the US is negative, 18% positive; 68% view Iran negatively, 12% positively.
Also, 56% think the 2003 invasion was wrong (up 6%), while 42% say it was right (down 7%).Also, 56% think the 2003 invasion was wrong (up 6%), while 42% say it was right (down 7%).
Only 30% think coalition forces are doing a good job, 69% a bad job - more or less the same as a year ago.Only 30% think coalition forces are doing a good job, 69% a bad job - more or less the same as a year ago.
In the light of an imminent withdrawal of British troops from southern Iraq, Iraqis were asked about the value of the British presence since 2003.In the light of an imminent withdrawal of British troops from southern Iraq, Iraqis were asked about the value of the British presence since 2003.
The responses were mixed on this issue: 36% call it generally positive, 42% generally negative.The responses were mixed on this issue: 36% call it generally positive, 42% generally negative.
The poll also suggests that there are some marked differences in responses between the northern, central and southern regions of Iraq.The poll also suggests that there are some marked differences in responses between the northern, central and southern regions of Iraq.
Overall, respondents in central Iraq, which includes Baghdad, are significantly less positive about how well things are currently going in their lives. Overall, respondents in central Iraq, which includes Baghdad, are significantly less positive about how well things are currently going in their lives.
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Are you in Iraq? Does this poll reflect your experiences? Send your comments to the BBC using the form below:Are you in Iraq? Does this poll reflect your experiences? Send your comments to the BBC using the form below:
In most cases a selection of your comments will be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below.In most cases a selection of your comments will be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below.
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