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A decrease in new cases in Europe appears to be ‘a signal’ that restrictions are working, the W.H.O. says. A decrease in new cases in Europe appears to be ‘a signal’ that restrictions are working, the W.H.O. says.
(about 1 hour later)
In a rare hopeful sign amid the grinding slog through a pandemic that has claimed more than 1.3 million lives across the globe, Europe’s new restrictions appear to be slowing the spread of the coronavirus in some of the worst-hit countries.In a rare hopeful sign amid the grinding slog through a pandemic that has claimed more than 1.3 million lives across the globe, Europe’s new restrictions appear to be slowing the spread of the coronavirus in some of the worst-hit countries.
The World Health Organization said Thursday that new case rates were falling for the first time in months across the region. Two weeks ago, the agency reported that there were around two million new infections detected across Europe. Last week, that number fell to 1.8 million — a drop of 10 percent. The World Health Organization said Thursday that new case rates were falling for the first time in months across the region. Two weeks ago, the agency reported that there were around two million new infections per week detected across Europe. Last week, that number fell to 1.8 million — a drop of 10 percent.
“It is a small signal, but it is a signal nevertheless,” Dr. Hans Kluge, the W.H.O. regional director for Europe, said at a news conference. Europe, he said, is capable of turning the tide, but he cautioned that the virus remained a serious threat.“It is a small signal, but it is a signal nevertheless,” Dr. Hans Kluge, the W.H.O. regional director for Europe, said at a news conference. Europe, he said, is capable of turning the tide, but he cautioned that the virus remained a serious threat.
The restrictions, many of which were announced at the end of October, are less severe than in the spring — many businesses are closed, and gatherings limited in size. But schools generally remain open, in contrast to the approach in much of the United States, and limits on movement are far less strict than they were. The restrictions, many of which were announced at the end of October, are less severe than in the spring — many businesses are closed, and gatherings limited in size. Limits on movement are far less strict than they were. But schools generally remain open.
In France, which announced a second lockdown on Oct. 28, the seven-day average for new daily cases had fallen from more than 54,000 on Nov. 7 to 28,500 on Wednesday, according to a New York Times database. Spain, Belgium, Switzerland and the Czech Republic are among the countries that have also seen decreases. The approach stands in stark contrast to much of the United States, where responsibility for virus policy has been largely left to the states. Many governors have resisted imposing limits on daily life, but a number of them have changed course in recent days, particularly in the Midwest, where the virus is raging out of control.
But while bars, restaurants and gyms have largely remained open in much of the country, sometimes with shortened hours, some public school systems have been closed to in-person learning. Students in Philadelphia, Detroit and Boston are limited to remote learning, and New York City announced that it would go online starting Thursday.
Research increasingly indicates that children under 10 are at less risk of contracting and transmitting the virus, and that opening schools, at least for younger children, is generally safe. Dr. Kluge called school closures ineffective in stopping the virus, and said the W.H.O. was committed to working with European nations to keep primary schools open.
Experts caution that it can take several weeks for public health measures like mask mandates, restaurant closings and restrictions on gathering to influence people’s behavior and start to flatten the epidemic curve. The effect is delayed because the incubation period for the disease is 14 days, so some proportion of the public is already infected and some who are ill will die after the changes take effect.
Thomas Hale, associate professor of global public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, leads an Oxford University effort to track virus restrictions. The Oxford data, he said, makes it clear that acting quickly and forcefully is the best shot governments have to combat the virus. And the more swiftly they can act, the shorter any lockdown-style policies need to be.
With new restrictions in France, Spain, Germany and Italy, the rate of daily cases in these countries has dropped. In the United Kingdom, even with new restrictions, cases are still steadily climbing.
France, which announced a second lockdown on Oct. 28, has seen its seven-day average for new daily cases fall from more than 54,000 on Nov. 7 to 28,500 on Wednesday, according to a New York Times database. Spain, Belgium, Switzerland and the Czech Republic are among the countries that have also seen decreases.
Since deaths tend to lag behind new infections by several weeks, hospitals across the continent will remain under great strain, and the number of deaths is still rising, with 4,500 lives lost every day in Europe.Since deaths tend to lag behind new infections by several weeks, hospitals across the continent will remain under great strain, and the number of deaths is still rising, with 4,500 lives lost every day in Europe.
“One person is dying every 17 seconds,” Dr. Kluge said.“One person is dying every 17 seconds,” Dr. Kluge said.
The W.H.O. remains opposed to lockdowns except as a last resort, and Dr. Kluge said that better mask compliance could help avoid the most draconian restrictions. He estimated that mask compliance across Europe was at about 60 percent. If it were above 90 percent, he said, lockdowns would be avoidable.The W.H.O. remains opposed to lockdowns except as a last resort, and Dr. Kluge said that better mask compliance could help avoid the most draconian restrictions. He estimated that mask compliance across Europe was at about 60 percent. If it were above 90 percent, he said, lockdowns would be avoidable.
The W.H.O. is also committed to working with European nations to keep primary schools open, calling school closures ineffective.
Acknowledging public weariness and anxiety ahead of the holiday season, Dr. Kluge said that while people can take comfort from the promise of better days ahead, “it will be six tough months.”Acknowledging public weariness and anxiety ahead of the holiday season, Dr. Kluge said that while people can take comfort from the promise of better days ahead, “it will be six tough months.”
But he added that collective action today, and the promise of vaccines on the horizon, was a reason for optimism. Pandemic fatigue remains a concern throughout the continent, with many eager to roll back restrictions as soon as possible. The government of Spain’s Catalonia region announced on Thursday that bars and restaurants will be allowed to reopen starting Monday, albeit at 30 percent capacity indoors and with a 9:30 p.m. curfew.
Dr. Kluge emphasized that collective action today — and the promise of vaccines on the horizon — were reasons for optimism.
“There is more hope ahead of us than despair behind us,” he said.“There is more hope ahead of us than despair behind us,” he said.