As India lowers its guard, experts worry that cases could jump again.
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Version 0 of 1. Two months ago, India looked like a coronavirus disaster zone. Reported infections neared 100,000 a day, deaths were shooting up, and India seemed ready to surpass the United States in total recorded cases. Today, India’s situation looks much different. Reported infections, deaths and the share of people testing positive have all fallen significantly. By contrast, infections in Europe and the United States are surging. But doubts persist about the reasons for India’s drop, and some researchers say that cases are falling off at least in part from a change in testing. The experts generally agree that the number of infections has far outstripped efforts to track them in India, like elsewhere, and that infections in the country could still get considerably worse. There has also been a shift in collective thinking, and experts worry that India has begun to lower its guard. The overall mood seems to be, “Let’s move on.” Mobility data show that Indians have returned to shopping areas and public spaces. Many are not wearing masks. A large chunk of the population seems resigned to the threat of infection. In many places, said Naresh Trehan, a cardiologist and the head of the Medanta hospital chain, based near New Delhi, “People are partying like there is no tomorrow. So if you do things like that, you are bound to suffer.” Many doctors here believe it’s just a matter of time before cases start shooting up again. Other countries, including the United States, France and Germany, thought the worst virus days were behind them, only to hit new highs. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington projects that India’s cases will soon increase again and exceed one million daily infections by year’s end, assuming that the country does not widely embrace wearing masks. “India could light up like a Christmas tree in the next three or four months,” said Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota. “We welcome, obviously, the decrease in cases, but realizing just as every other country that as soon as you let off the brake, then it comes.” |