Defiant car industry spruces up Geneva

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By Jorn Madslien Business reporter, BBC News, Geneva motor show

More than 30 world premieres will be unveiled

Anyone who feels weighed down by the doom and gloom of recession should consider a trip to Geneva for a decent dose of escapism.

Strong signs of optimism will be evident at this week's motor show, where carmakers from all over the world will fill the glitzy stands with more than 30 world premieres of production and concept cars, along with dozens of European premieres.

Given the motor industry's dire predicament, the atmosphere at the show is expected to be almost surreal.

Certainly, the contrast with the outside world - where sales have slumped, thousands of jobs are cut and car factories idled for weeks at the time - is stark.

Visitors will be wowed by perfectly lit and eminently civilised displays, which - in a futuristic, sci-fi sort of way - will offer visions of the future that are frankly unrealistic, and in the eyes of many even undesirable.

Last lavish show?

If conspicuous consumption is out of style, I'm not sure carmakers will have had time to react Michael Tyndal, auto analyst with Nomura

Speed and luxury will dominate, with both Aston Martin and Bentley showing off their fastest, most powerful cars yet - the V12 Vantage and the Continental Supersports - while Rolls-Royce will wheel out its smaller "baby" EX200 concept.

Such cars, and many other models on display in Geneva, were obviously dreamt up at a time when car buyers' share portfolios were bursting and access to credit was easy.

The industry was riding high on a global demand wave that seemed to go on forever.

As such, rather than appearing futuristic, many of the latest car models come across as remnants from a more prosperous - albeit frighteningly recent - past, and this in turn makes their creators seem out of touch with reality.

"If conspicuous consumption is out of style, I'm not sure carmakers will have had time to react," observes Michael Tyndal, auto analyst with Nomura.

But this also means this could be the last lavish motor show for years to come. Already, at least three manufacturers have said they will skip the Frankfurt show in September.

Frugal motoring

Many of the models here were dreamt up in an atmosphere of "irrational exuberance" ahead of the credit crunch, but there are nevertheless plenty of rather modest cars on display.

The convertible Fiat 500C is expected to be popular

Some carmakers have done more than others to meet ever-tighter emission regulations by developing smaller, lighter cars with smaller, more efficient engines - cars, in other words, that should be better suited for a recession.

Among the smaller stars at the show, Fiat's convertible 500C will be an almost guaranteed hit. In business terms, the new Polo should give its parent company Volkswagen a lift, not least since it seems destined for a US launch later this year.

Citroen's DS revival is also crucial, as it goes head-to-head with BMW's popular Mini in a market that is getting increasingly crowded. Audi is also piling in with its A1.

Future trends

Among the larger cars on offer, the new Mercedes E-class is crucial for parent company Daimler, whose arch-rival BMW will show a rather strange 5-series hatchback concept that hints at a future where oversized 4x4s shrink back to car-like proportions.

Audi will reveal a 4x4 A4 Allroad that will, if nothing else, dwarf a rather desperate attempt by Saab to enter the crossover segment with its 9-3X.

The Saab is essentially little more than a 9-3 with raised suspension and fat plastic wheel arches so it should be easy to produce, yet its eventual arrival depends on the company's survival, which at this stage seems far from certain.

Executives from automotive behemoth General Motors - the owner of Saab, Opel and Vauxhall in Europe - will take a break from pleading for help from governments in order to unveil the Opel Ampera plug-in hybrid as they wax lyrically about the future of electric motoring.

Again, the car's eventual arrival on the road depends on Opel surviving the current crisis, though its green credentials mean the odds are much better.

"Government bail-out money is under the guise of creating more fuel-efficient cars," says Mr Tyndall. "I think that makes it more palatable for taxpayers."