Basque election race wide open

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By Steve Kingstone BBC News, Bilbao Average incomes in the Basque Country are among Spain's highest

To the strains of Bruce Springsteen's song Working on a Dream a left-wing candidate visits a blue-collar neighbourhood promising change.

It could easily be a campaign stop in the American rust belt, but instead the venue is Bilbao - the engine room of the Basque Country.

In the down-at-heel Rekalde barrio, an eager army of volunteers from the Basque Socialist Party (PSE) intercepts passers-by with leaflets and optimism.

The Springsteen soundtrack is not the only move borrowed from the Barack Obama playbook. The Socialist candidate to lead the next Basque government, Patxi Lopez, portrays himself as a new type of politician, able to transcend past bitterness.

"Change means moving forward from an era of division and confrontation between Basques to an era of understanding," he told the BBC. "And beyond that, our top priority is the same as that of the Basque people - combating the economic crisis."

The message is carefully pitched, elevating the issue of economic competence above traditional Basque concerns about sovereignty and national identity.

"The Socialist Party is trying to pick up moderate former Nationalist voters," explains Pedro Ibarra, a politics professor at the University of the Basque Country.

"They're targeting people who have become less concerned with the national question, and more concerned with the economy and jobs."

If the polls are right, the strategy is paying off. The PSE is on course to increase its seats in the Basque parliament from 18 to 26-28. To secure an absolute majority, 38 seats are required.

Through clever coalition-building, Mr Lopez aims to make history, by being the first non-nationalist politician to become <i>Lehendakari - </i>President of the Basque regional government - following an election.

Nationalist domination

But blocking his path is the formidable Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), which has dominated the political landscape here for three decades. It retains a slight poll lead over the Socialists, but is also likely to fall short of an absolute majority. What kind of unemployment do people prefer, 8%, as we have here, or 14%, as they have in Madrid? Basque Nationalist spokeswoman

"Now more than ever" is the campaign slogan of the PNV's Juan Jose Ibarretxe, the current Lehendakari and a 10-year veteran of the top job.

In that time, he has championed a looser constitutional relationship with Madrid and a referendum on moves towards greater independence. But Mr Ibarretxe's initiatives have been rejected by courts and the parliament in Madrid.

In an apparent attempt to freshen up his image, the Lehendakari has appeared at rallies flanked by brightly-coloured, life-size cut-outs of himself, in which the 51 year old Basque looks curiously similar to President Obama. Nationalist leader Ibarretxe has had stormy relations with Madrid

But the change in style is matched by a readiness to engage on substance - above all on economic issues.

Under the Nationalists, Basques have fared well: average incomes here are among the highest in Spain; unemployment is far below the countrywide average; and technically, the Basque region has yet to enter recession.

The point is made pithily by Miren Azkarate, the spokeswoman for the Basque Nationalist government. "What kind of unemployment do people prefer," she asks, "8%, as we have here, or 14%, as they have in Madrid?"

She reminds me that Standard & Poor's currently give the Basque Country a higher credit rating than Spain as a whole, and that on the Socialists' watch nationally, the country has plunged into what may prove to be a deep and lasting recession.

But will the Basque Country's relative good fortune be enough to reassure voters, at a time when the local economy is nonetheless contracting? In the final quarter of 2008, Basque GDP fell by 1.1%.

Economic woes

In the historic market town of Ordizia, traders show off a mouth-watering array of local cheeses, honey, vegetables and jams. But business is painfully slow. My takings are down a quarter and I really fear for the future Aurelio Clemente, stallholder

"It's dire," shouts Aurelio Clemente, from behind the fruit and vegetable stall he has run here for almost 30 years.

"My takings are down a quarter and I really fear for the future." Aurelio adds that he wants change, but is not convinced that any of the parties deserve his vote.

Another stallholder, Kontxi Argaiz, agrees that trade is sluggish but believes the Basque Country has escaped the worst of the crisis. "I recently went on holiday to Almeria in the south," she says, "and they really have a problem with unemployment. Here you don't feel it as much."

Politically, Kontxi too favours change, but not from Basque Nationalist to Socialist. Instead, her sympathies lie with two banned separatist parties whose redundant election posters line the market.

"They call this a democracy, but it's not fair," she says. "We should be able to vote and then all the parties should sit down together and talk."

Separatists excluded

The outlawed parties, D3M and Askatasuna, were barred from fielding candidates earlier this month by Spain's supreme court, after prosecutors accused them of links to Eta militants.

It means that, for the first time in a modern Basque election, there will be no radical separatist party on the ballot paper.

"This is the clearest possible signal that there is no democracy in Spain," argues Tasio Erkizia, a veteran separatist who for 11 years represented Batasuna in the Basque parliament. They've always denied certain rights to the Basque Country and now they've removed our right to vote for who we want Tasio Erkizia, former Batasuna representative

Widely considered to be the political wing of Eta, Batasuna was itself declared illegal in 2003. "They've always denied certain rights to the Basque Country," says Erkizia, "and now they've removed our right to vote for who we want."

Based on past results, the banned separatist parties could have expected to poll around 12% on Sunday. Their supporters interpret the supreme court decision as a deliberate ploy to favour the Socialists.

At the same time, some believe the silencing of separatist opinion plays into the hands of Eta, which was blamed for a bomb attack in Madrid earlier this month, together with attacks this week on Basque Nationalist and Socialist party offices.

"In light of the court's decision, all kinds of radical reaction could increase," says Pedro Ibarra, the politics professor, "I don't think it's the best way to stop terrorism."

Coalition options

Sunday's outcome hinges on the choice of as yet undecided voters, who represent a quarter of the electorate, according to polls.

For instance, will separatists, deprived of their own candidates, vote instead for the PNV? And just how many wavering nationalists will heed the Socialists' call for change?

Coalition-watchers will look first to see whether the PNV and its smaller allies can muster the 38 seats needed to retain power.

A more extreme scenario would be an all-Spanish alliance between the Socialists and the conservative People's Party (PP), which forms the main opposition in Madrid.

Finally, a grand coalition between Basque Nationalists and Socialists is a distinct possibility. But it is difficult to imagine Senores Ibarretxe and Lopez sitting around the same cabinet table.