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Armenia and Azerbaijan: What Sparked War and Will Peace Prevail? Armenia and Azerbaijan: What Sparked War and Will Peace Prevail?
(12 days later)
MOSCOW — A simmering, decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh erupted in late September into the worst fighting the area had seen since a vicious ethnic war in the 1990s.MOSCOW — A simmering, decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh erupted in late September into the worst fighting the area had seen since a vicious ethnic war in the 1990s.
Skirmishes have been common for decades along the front lines of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan but is home to ethnic Armenians.Skirmishes have been common for decades along the front lines of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan but is home to ethnic Armenians.
After three failed cease-fires, a Russia-brokered peace deal signed on Nov. 9 ended the six-week war that killed thousands. The deal allowed Azerbaijan to keep significant territory it had captured and required Armenia to hand over other areas, but left the capital of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Stepanakert, under Armenian control, protected by Russian peacekeepers. Armenians in one region designated to change hands, Kelbajar, burned their homes rather than allow Azerbaijanis to live in them.After three failed cease-fires, a Russia-brokered peace deal signed on Nov. 9 ended the six-week war that killed thousands. The deal allowed Azerbaijan to keep significant territory it had captured and required Armenia to hand over other areas, but left the capital of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Stepanakert, under Armenian control, protected by Russian peacekeepers. Armenians in one region designated to change hands, Kelbajar, burned their homes rather than allow Azerbaijanis to live in them.
Back in the 1990s, it was the Azerbaijanis who were forced to leave Kelbajar when the first war ended with Armenian victories. Now, it is the Armenians’ turn, in a tragedy for them and a triumph for their foes.Back in the 1990s, it was the Azerbaijanis who were forced to leave Kelbajar when the first war ended with Armenian victories. Now, it is the Armenians’ turn, in a tragedy for them and a triumph for their foes.
Here’s a guide to the Nagorno-Karabakh war, why it flared again and what the prospects are for a long-elusive peace.Here’s a guide to the Nagorno-Karabakh war, why it flared again and what the prospects are for a long-elusive peace.
Nagorno-Karabakh had long been ripe for renewed local conflict.Nagorno-Karabakh had long been ripe for renewed local conflict.
A war that began in the late Soviet period between Armenians and Azerbaijanis set the stage for the recent today. At that time, the ethnic Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan declared independence and was nearly crushed in the ensuing war before its fighters and the Armenian military captured areas of Azerbaijan in a series of victories leading up to a cease-fire in 1994.A war that began in the late Soviet period between Armenians and Azerbaijanis set the stage for the recent today. At that time, the ethnic Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan declared independence and was nearly crushed in the ensuing war before its fighters and the Armenian military captured areas of Azerbaijan in a series of victories leading up to a cease-fire in 1994.
But the tensions go back further, to at least World War I, during the fall of the Ottoman Empire, when Armenians were slaughtered and expelled from Turkey in what many, including the U.S. Congress and E.U. member states, recognize as genocide. That history, Armenians say, justifies their military defense of their ethnic enclave. But the tensions go back further, to at least World War I, during the fall of the Ottoman Empire, when Armenians were slaughtered and expelled from Turkey in what many, including the U.S. Congress and E.U. member states, recognize as genocide. That history, Armenians say, justifies their military defense of their ethnic enclave.
The 1994 cease-fire, always meant to be temporary, left about 600,000 Azerbaijanis — who had fled Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts captured by the Armenians — stranded away from their homes. A smaller number of Armenians who had been living in Azerbaijan also fled or were expelled. The result left Nagorno-Karabakh, closely aligned with Armenia, vulnerable to attack by Azerbaijan, which vowed to recapture the area.The 1994 cease-fire, always meant to be temporary, left about 600,000 Azerbaijanis — who had fled Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding districts captured by the Armenians — stranded away from their homes. A smaller number of Armenians who had been living in Azerbaijan also fled or were expelled. The result left Nagorno-Karabakh, closely aligned with Armenia, vulnerable to attack by Azerbaijan, which vowed to recapture the area.
Adding to the hatred between the Muslim Azerbaijanis and Christian Armenians, each accuses the other of destroying religious sites, as if to wipe the mountain landscape clean of historical traces of the other culture. Armenians rebuilt a church, the Holy Savior Cathedral, in the city they call Shushi only to see its roof destroyed this fall. Azerbaijan says the 1990s conflict left dozens of mosques in ruins. Adding to the hatred between the Muslim Azerbaijanis and Christian Armenians, each accuses the other of destroying religious sites, as if to wipe the mountain landscape clean of historical traces of the other culture. Armenians rebuilt a church, the Holy Savior Cathedral, in the city they call Shushi only to see its roof destroyed this fall. Azerbaijan says the 1990s conflict left dozens of mosques in ruins.
This time the conflict was different, analysts and former diplomats said, because Turkey had offered more direct support to Azerbaijan, and because of the scale of the fighting. Azerbaijan used sophisticated attack drones and both sides used powerful, long-range rocket artillery, they said.This time the conflict was different, analysts and former diplomats said, because Turkey had offered more direct support to Azerbaijan, and because of the scale of the fighting. Azerbaijan used sophisticated attack drones and both sides used powerful, long-range rocket artillery, they said.
Turkey’s direct engagement in support of its ethnic Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, in an area of traditional Russian influence, turned the local dispute into a regional one.Turkey’s direct engagement in support of its ethnic Turkic ally, Azerbaijan, in an area of traditional Russian influence, turned the local dispute into a regional one.
The cease-fire agreement reached on Nov. 9 is a case in point: The deal was brokered by Russia and the next day Russian peacekeepers began deploying to the conflict zone to guard an access road and oversee the handover of land. Azerbaijan has insisted it has a right to invite Turkish peacekeepers as well, raising the possibility that the two countries’ soldiers would operate in proximity along a tense front line.The cease-fire agreement reached on Nov. 9 is a case in point: The deal was brokered by Russia and the next day Russian peacekeepers began deploying to the conflict zone to guard an access road and oversee the handover of land. Azerbaijan has insisted it has a right to invite Turkish peacekeepers as well, raising the possibility that the two countries’ soldiers would operate in proximity along a tense front line.
Before the cease-fire, attacks had spread far from the front lines. Cities in Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia have been hit by long-range weaponry fired by combatants on both sides. The capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, has been repeatedly bombarded.Before the cease-fire, attacks had spread far from the front lines. Cities in Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia have been hit by long-range weaponry fired by combatants on both sides. The capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, has been repeatedly bombarded.
Azerbaijan accused Armenia of firing rockets at the country’s second largest city, Ganja, and at a hydroelectric station, suggesting an effort to destroy civilian infrastructure, risking an escalation to direct conflict between the countries outside the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh.Azerbaijan accused Armenia of firing rockets at the country’s second largest city, Ganja, and at a hydroelectric station, suggesting an effort to destroy civilian infrastructure, risking an escalation to direct conflict between the countries outside the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia and Turkey had coordinated at times in the past to tamp down tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.Russia and Turkey had coordinated at times in the past to tamp down tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
But the uneasy cooperation between Turkey and Russia, an ally of Armenia, comes as both countries become increasingly assertive in the Middle East and as the United States steps back. Relations between all three countries have become more complicated. But the uncomfortable cooperation between Turkey and Russia, an ally of Armenia, comes as both countries become increasingly assertive in the Middle East and as the United States steps back. Relations between all three countries have become more complicated.
Turkey has alienated the United States by buying antiaircraft missiles from Russia and cutting a natural gas pipeline deal seen as undermining Ukraine. At the same time, it is fighting proxy wars against Moscow in Syria and Libya.Turkey has alienated the United States by buying antiaircraft missiles from Russia and cutting a natural gas pipeline deal seen as undermining Ukraine. At the same time, it is fighting proxy wars against Moscow in Syria and Libya.
After Russian airstrikes in Syria killed Turkish soldiers earlier this year, Turkey soon appeared on other battlefields where Russia was vulnerable. In May, Turkey deployed military advisers, armed drones and Syrian proxy fighters to Libya to shore up the U.N.-backed government and push back a Russian-supported rival faction in that war. In July and August, it sent troops and equipment to Azerbaijan for military exercises.After Russian airstrikes in Syria killed Turkish soldiers earlier this year, Turkey soon appeared on other battlefields where Russia was vulnerable. In May, Turkey deployed military advisers, armed drones and Syrian proxy fighters to Libya to shore up the U.N.-backed government and push back a Russian-supported rival faction in that war. In July and August, it sent troops and equipment to Azerbaijan for military exercises.
Armenia has said that Turkey was directly involved in the fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, and that a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down an Armenian jet. Turkey denied those accusations.Armenia has said that Turkey was directly involved in the fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, and that a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down an Armenian jet. Turkey denied those accusations.
After satellite images revealed F-16s parked on the apron of an Azerbaijani airfield, Azerbaijan’s president conceded that Turkish planes were in his country but said they had not flown in combat.After satellite images revealed F-16s parked on the apron of an Azerbaijani airfield, Azerbaijan’s president conceded that Turkish planes were in his country but said they had not flown in combat.
Russia and France have both supported Armenia’s claim that Turkey deployed Syrian militants to Nagorno-Karabakh, following its playbook in Libya. Busy with a presidential election, the United States played only a limited role in the diplomacy.Russia and France have both supported Armenia’s claim that Turkey deployed Syrian militants to Nagorno-Karabakh, following its playbook in Libya. Busy with a presidential election, the United States played only a limited role in the diplomacy.
By early November, the fighting had turned against Armenia. Azerbaijani forces captured the Nagorno-Karabakh region’s second largest city and cut a key access road needed for military supplies to reach the mountain enclave, starving its defenders of hope of holding out.By early November, the fighting had turned against Armenia. Azerbaijani forces captured the Nagorno-Karabakh region’s second largest city and cut a key access road needed for military supplies to reach the mountain enclave, starving its defenders of hope of holding out.
The cease-fire signed by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia called for Armenia’s army to withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh and be replaced by Russian peacekeepers.The cease-fire signed by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia called for Armenia’s army to withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh and be replaced by Russian peacekeepers.
The deal delivered to Azerbaijan much of what the country has sought for years in negotiations. Along with withdrawing its army from the enclave, Armenia agreed to open a transport corridor for Azerbaijan through Armenia to the Azerbaijani region of Nakhichevan.The deal delivered to Azerbaijan much of what the country has sought for years in negotiations. Along with withdrawing its army from the enclave, Armenia agreed to open a transport corridor for Azerbaijan through Armenia to the Azerbaijani region of Nakhichevan.
The settlement sealed a role in the region for an increasingly assertive Turkey. It also left Armenia deeply reliant on Russia for security, potentially weakening Armenia’s independence. For much of the post-Soviet era, support from the Armenian diaspora in Southern California and elsewhere in the United States and France had balanced Russia’s sway in the country. It also left Armenia deeply reliant on Russia for security, potentially weakening Armenia’s independence. Protests immediately erupted in Armenia, expressing anger at the agreement and calling into question whether the government that negotiated the deal could remain in power to enforce it.
Protests immediately erupted in Armenia, expressing anger at the agreement and calling into question whether the government of Mr. Pashinyan that negotiated the deal could remain in power to enforce it. But Azerbaijan too had to compromise. Nearly 2,000 Russian troops, operating as peacekeepers, are now stationed on Azerbaijani territory. That gives Moscow a military foothold just north of Iran — one accompanied by risk, because it puts Russian troops in the middle of one of the world’s most intractable ethnic conflicts.
And the deep animosity has remained. On Nov. 15, as Armenians fled from Kelbajar under the Russia-brokered peace deal, many set their homes on fire. Near some of the burning houses stood older ruins: the remains of homes abandoned a quarter-century ago, when Azerbaijanis fled and Armenians moved into the region. The settlement also sealed a role in the region for an increasingly assertive Turkey. Turkish military officials will now work at a peacekeeping command center in Azerbaijan. More broadly, Azerbaijan won the war with diplomatic and military support from Turkey, cementing Turkey’s standing as a valuable ally inside Azerbaijan and potentially in the former Soviet states in Central Asia where Turkic languages are spoken, such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
The Nov. 9 peace deal says nothing about the territory’s long-term status, and ethnic Armenians who returned to their homes in buses overseen by Russian peacekeepers said they could not imagine life in the region without Russia’s protection.
Deep animosity has remained. On Nov. 15, as Armenians fled from Kelbajar under the Russia-brokered peace deal, many set their homes on fire. Near some of the burning houses stood older ruins: the remains of homes abandoned a quarter-century ago, when Azerbaijanis fled and Armenians moved into the region.
Anton Troianovski and Carlotta Gall contributed reporting.