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What to Make of the Rebound in the U.S. Jobs Report What to Make of the Rebound in the U.S. Jobs Report
(10 days later)
The job market halted its pandemic-induced collapse in May as employers brought back millions of workers and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined.The job market halted its pandemic-induced collapse in May as employers brought back millions of workers and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined.
Tens of millions are still out of work, and the unemployment rate, which fell to 13.3 percent from 14.7 percent in April, remains worse than in any previous postwar recession. The rate would have been higher had it not been for data-collection issues.Tens of millions are still out of work, and the unemployment rate, which fell to 13.3 percent from 14.7 percent in April, remains worse than in any previous postwar recession. The rate would have been higher had it not been for data-collection issues.
Nonetheless, after weeks of data depicting enormous economic destruction, Friday’s report from the Labor Department offered a glimmer of hope. Employers added 2.5 million jobs in May, defying economists’ expectations of further losses and holding the prospect that the rebound from the economic crisis could be faster than forecast.Nonetheless, after weeks of data depicting enormous economic destruction, Friday’s report from the Labor Department offered a glimmer of hope. Employers added 2.5 million jobs in May, defying economists’ expectations of further losses and holding the prospect that the rebound from the economic crisis could be faster than forecast.
Job growth was concentrated in industries hit hardest early in the crisis, like leisure, hospitality and retail work. But manufacturing, health care and professional services added jobs as well, possibly signaling that the damage did not spread as deeply into the economy as many feared.Job growth was concentrated in industries hit hardest early in the crisis, like leisure, hospitality and retail work. But manufacturing, health care and professional services added jobs as well, possibly signaling that the damage did not spread as deeply into the economy as many feared.
Major stock indexes surged on the news, and President Trump hailed the report in remarks outside the White House, saying the rebound “leads us onto a long period of growth.”Major stock indexes surged on the news, and President Trump hailed the report in remarks outside the White House, saying the rebound “leads us onto a long period of growth.”
“We will go back to having the greatest economy anywhere in the world, nothing close, and I think we’re going to have a very good upcoming few months,” Mr. Trump said.“We will go back to having the greatest economy anywhere in the world, nothing close, and I think we’re going to have a very good upcoming few months,” Mr. Trump said.
All the same, economists warn that it will take far longer for the economy to climb out of the hole than it did to fall into it.All the same, economists warn that it will take far longer for the economy to climb out of the hole than it did to fall into it.
And even as the economy shows signs of revival, the United States is confirming more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day, with counts rising in particular in the South and the West.And even as the economy shows signs of revival, the United States is confirming more than 20,000 new coronavirus cases a day, with counts rising in particular in the South and the West.
While employers recalled temporarily laid-off or furloughed workers in May, the number of permanent job losses rose, a sign that some businesses didn’t survive the shutdown, or expect demand to stay depressed as the economy reopens. Others are bringing back workers at reduced hours: The number of people working part time because they couldn’t find full-time work barely budged. And millions more people have been laid off in the weeks since the data released Friday was collected in mid-May.While employers recalled temporarily laid-off or furloughed workers in May, the number of permanent job losses rose, a sign that some businesses didn’t survive the shutdown, or expect demand to stay depressed as the economy reopens. Others are bringing back workers at reduced hours: The number of people working part time because they couldn’t find full-time work barely budged. And millions more people have been laid off in the weeks since the data released Friday was collected in mid-May.
“The surprise to me in this report is that the recovery was earlier than we expected, but the next question is whether it will be faster than we expected,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at the career site Glassdoor. The increase in permanent job losses, he said, “is a concerning sign for the length of the recovery because every layoff that turns permanent makes a full recovery harder.”“The surprise to me in this report is that the recovery was earlier than we expected, but the next question is whether it will be faster than we expected,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at the career site Glassdoor. The increase in permanent job losses, he said, “is a concerning sign for the length of the recovery because every layoff that turns permanent makes a full recovery harder.”
Economists said the gains in May indicated that Congress and the Federal Reserve had at least partly succeeded in limiting permanent economic damage by providing trillions of dollars in assistance to households and businesses.Economists said the gains in May indicated that Congress and the Federal Reserve had at least partly succeeded in limiting permanent economic damage by providing trillions of dollars in assistance to households and businesses.
But that aid is now in jeopardy, and economists warned that there was no guarantee the job market would continue to improve without it.But that aid is now in jeopardy, and economists warned that there was no guarantee the job market would continue to improve without it.
“The economy is still being very much buffered by stimulus,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America. “When that starts to wane, we will learn a lot more about the underlying health of the recovery.”“The economy is still being very much buffered by stimulus,” said Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at Bank of America. “When that starts to wane, we will learn a lot more about the underlying health of the recovery.”
The Labor Department cautioned that data-collection issues troubling the agency throughout the crisis continued last month. Some temporarily jobless workers were characterized as employed in May; had they been counted correctly, the department said, the unemployment rate would have topped 16 percent.The Labor Department cautioned that data-collection issues troubling the agency throughout the crisis continued last month. Some temporarily jobless workers were characterized as employed in May; had they been counted correctly, the department said, the unemployment rate would have topped 16 percent.
The official unemployment rate also leaves out many people who are not actively looking for jobs or are working reduced hours. A broader measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those groups, was 21.2 percent in May, down from April but higher than any other month on record.The official unemployment rate also leaves out many people who are not actively looking for jobs or are working reduced hours. A broader measure of unemployment and underemployment, which includes those groups, was 21.2 percent in May, down from April but higher than any other month on record.
For some demographic groups, the crisis is deeper. Early job losses were concentrated among low-wage workers in service jobs, many of them black and Latino. The unemployment rate for black workers rose slightly, to 16.8 percent, although mostly because more people were looking for work. The jobless rate for Latinos fell but was still the highest of any racial or ethnic group, at 17.6 percent.For some demographic groups, the crisis is deeper. Early job losses were concentrated among low-wage workers in service jobs, many of them black and Latino. The unemployment rate for black workers rose slightly, to 16.8 percent, although mostly because more people were looking for work. The jobless rate for Latinos fell but was still the highest of any racial or ethnic group, at 17.6 percent.
Even if they didn’t anticipate the May bounce, many economists had expected that unemployment would begin to ease as states reopened and businesses called employees back to work.Even if they didn’t anticipate the May bounce, many economists had expected that unemployment would begin to ease as states reopened and businesses called employees back to work.
More than half of the month’s job gains — 1.4 million — were in restaurants and bars, many of which received assistance under the federal Paycheck Protection Program. Friday’s report suggests that the program, along with other elements of the government’s response, helped offset at least some of the economic damage caused by the shutdown, which should allow for a faster recovery.More than half of the month’s job gains — 1.4 million — were in restaurants and bars, many of which received assistance under the federal Paycheck Protection Program. Friday’s report suggests that the program, along with other elements of the government’s response, helped offset at least some of the economic damage caused by the shutdown, which should allow for a faster recovery.
[How do you feel about going back to work? Share your story.][How do you feel about going back to work? Share your story.]
“If it is the case that more people were able to hold on to their jobs and remain attached to the labor force, then the recovery will be more efficient,” Ms. Meyer said. “People will have more income to spend, they will have more consistency as far as their employment, and confidence will be higher.”“If it is the case that more people were able to hold on to their jobs and remain attached to the labor force, then the recovery will be more efficient,” Ms. Meyer said. “People will have more income to spend, they will have more consistency as far as their employment, and confidence will be higher.”
At Beef ‘O’ Brady’s, a Florida-based chain of more than 150 sports bars, business was down 62 percent in April, when its dining rooms were closed nationwide and its only business came from takeout. But only a handful of the chain’s restaurants have closed permanently, in part because nearly all of its franchisees received Paycheck Protection Program loans.At Beef ‘O’ Brady’s, a Florida-based chain of more than 150 sports bars, business was down 62 percent in April, when its dining rooms were closed nationwide and its only business came from takeout. But only a handful of the chain’s restaurants have closed permanently, in part because nearly all of its franchisees received Paycheck Protection Program loans.
“The damage would have been much greater without P.P.P., I can tell you that,” said Chris Elliott, the chief executive.“The damage would have been much greater without P.P.P., I can tell you that,” said Chris Elliott, the chief executive.
Now business has begun to pick up as states gradually allow restaurants to reopen. In the last week of May, sales were down about 15 percent, Mr. Elliott said, and customers appear eager to eat out again.Now business has begun to pick up as states gradually allow restaurants to reopen. In the last week of May, sales were down about 15 percent, Mr. Elliott said, and customers appear eager to eat out again.
The longer-run outlook is uncertain. If business stays at its current level, many franchisees will struggle to eke out a profit, he said, and many locations are losing money. That won’t be sustainable.The longer-run outlook is uncertain. If business stays at its current level, many franchisees will struggle to eke out a profit, he said, and many locations are losing money. That won’t be sustainable.
“There are going to be franchise owners that if they can’t reach 15 percent, or it doesn’t improve incrementally over time, they’re going to get fatigued, and I think some of them are at risk of just throwing in the towel,” Mr. Elliott said.“There are going to be franchise owners that if they can’t reach 15 percent, or it doesn’t improve incrementally over time, they’re going to get fatigued, and I think some of them are at risk of just throwing in the towel,” Mr. Elliott said.
At the same time, employment in nearly every sector remains far below where it was before the crisis. Many economists expect an initial resurgence in at least some kinds of business. But it isn’t clear how strong that upturn will be, or what will come after.At the same time, employment in nearly every sector remains far below where it was before the crisis. Many economists expect an initial resurgence in at least some kinds of business. But it isn’t clear how strong that upturn will be, or what will come after.
Updated July 7, 2020
The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
“It’s the jump and then the crawl, and the question is how high is the jump and then how long does the crawl take,” said Nick Bunker, who leads North American economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.“It’s the jump and then the crawl, and the question is how high is the jump and then how long does the crawl take,” said Nick Bunker, who leads North American economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab.
When Mike Lowe flew to Florida in early March to visit his mother, he had a successful freelance business doing web and graphic design, and a part-time gig in dog day care. A week later, he arrived home in Portland, Ore., to a text message from the dog business telling him not to go into work. He was let go entirely within days, even as his freelance clients began calling to cancel orders.When Mike Lowe flew to Florida in early March to visit his mother, he had a successful freelance business doing web and graphic design, and a part-time gig in dog day care. A week later, he arrived home in Portland, Ore., to a text message from the dog business telling him not to go into work. He was let go entirely within days, even as his freelance clients began calling to cancel orders.
Two and a half months later, Oregon has begun to reopen, but Mr. Lowe, 51, is treading water. One freelance project looks likely to resume soon, but another client, a local bar, told him this week that it would shut down permanently — its business relied on live music, which seems unlikely to come back anytime soon. The owner of the dog day care says she hopes to bring him back at reduced hours but isn’t sure when business will rebound sufficiently to make that possible.Two and a half months later, Oregon has begun to reopen, but Mr. Lowe, 51, is treading water. One freelance project looks likely to resume soon, but another client, a local bar, told him this week that it would shut down permanently — its business relied on live music, which seems unlikely to come back anytime soon. The owner of the dog day care says she hopes to bring him back at reduced hours but isn’t sure when business will rebound sufficiently to make that possible.
“I’d say I’m just in wait-and-see mode at the moment,” he said.“I’d say I’m just in wait-and-see mode at the moment,” he said.
Like many laid-off workers, Mr. Lowe is able to get by largely because of the $600 a week in extra unemployment pay that Congress approved as part of its emergency funding bill in March. But that benefit is set to run out at the end of July, and it is far from clear that Congress will extend it. Economists warn that pulling away support too early could stall the recovery.Like many laid-off workers, Mr. Lowe is able to get by largely because of the $600 a week in extra unemployment pay that Congress approved as part of its emergency funding bill in March. But that benefit is set to run out at the end of July, and it is far from clear that Congress will extend it. Economists warn that pulling away support too early could stall the recovery.
“Right now, the government is plugging a good deal of that hole for households, but how long will that last, we don’t know,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley. She noted that the unemployment rate will almost certainly remain elevated in August, adding, “It’s a very tough time to pull support away from households when the unemployment rate is still that high.”“Right now, the government is plugging a good deal of that hole for households, but how long will that last, we don’t know,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley. She noted that the unemployment rate will almost certainly remain elevated in August, adding, “It’s a very tough time to pull support away from households when the unemployment rate is still that high.”
Even now, as some businesses start to bring back workers, layoffs are continuing. Nearly two million workers filed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits last week, more than double the worst week of any previous recession. State and local governments cut nearly half a million jobs in May, and millions more such layoffs are likely in coming months in response to plunging tax revenues.Even now, as some businesses start to bring back workers, layoffs are continuing. Nearly two million workers filed first-time claims for state unemployment benefits last week, more than double the worst week of any previous recession. State and local governments cut nearly half a million jobs in May, and millions more such layoffs are likely in coming months in response to plunging tax revenues.
In Jackson, Mich., a small city about 70 miles west of Detroit, the school board voted last week to cut more than 40 positions in response to a multimillion-dollar budget shortfall. Jeff Beal, the district’s superintendent, said he worried about the impact the cuts would have on education and on the local economy. But he said the district had little choice.In Jackson, Mich., a small city about 70 miles west of Detroit, the school board voted last week to cut more than 40 positions in response to a multimillion-dollar budget shortfall. Jeff Beal, the district’s superintendent, said he worried about the impact the cuts would have on education and on the local economy. But he said the district had little choice.
Among the cuts: the assistant superintendent for human resources, which means Mr. Beal will have to inform laid-off workers himself.Among the cuts: the assistant superintendent for human resources, which means Mr. Beal will have to inform laid-off workers himself.
“Now that that position has been eliminated, that responsibility falls to me,” he said. “I’m going to have to make a lot of very personal, very painful phone calls this week.”“Now that that position has been eliminated, that responsibility falls to me,” he said. “I’m going to have to make a lot of very personal, very painful phone calls this week.”
Katie Rogers contributed reporting.Katie Rogers contributed reporting.