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| ‘Europe Finally Got the Message’: Leaders Act Together on Stimulus | ‘Europe Finally Got the Message’: Leaders Act Together on Stimulus |
| (8 days later) | |
| Europe, so often derided as lumbering and divided, seems to be finding its voice in the pandemic. | Europe, so often derided as lumbering and divided, seems to be finding its voice in the pandemic. |
| A powerful new dose of stimulus by the European Central Bank on Thursday, and a German emergency spending package that defied stereotypes of stingy Prussians, were the latest evidence that policymakers are responding to the pandemic with far more muscle than anyone would have predicted a few months ago. | A powerful new dose of stimulus by the European Central Bank on Thursday, and a German emergency spending package that defied stereotypes of stingy Prussians, were the latest evidence that policymakers are responding to the pandemic with far more muscle than anyone would have predicted a few months ago. |
| The central bank announced it would nearly double a de facto money printing program to 1.35 trillion euros, or $1.5 trillion, to ensure a steady flow of cheap credit to eurozone consumers and businesses. And the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, only a few months ago a fortress of fiscal conservatism, announced a package of tax cuts, aid to small business, cash payments to parents and other measures worth €130 billion — a move requiring substantial borrowing. | The central bank announced it would nearly double a de facto money printing program to 1.35 trillion euros, or $1.5 trillion, to ensure a steady flow of cheap credit to eurozone consumers and businesses. And the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, only a few months ago a fortress of fiscal conservatism, announced a package of tax cuts, aid to small business, cash payments to parents and other measures worth €130 billion — a move requiring substantial borrowing. |
| A week earlier, the European Commission unveiled a plan to raise €750 billion for pandemic recovery by selling bonds that would be backed by all 27 members of the European Union, a first for the bloc on such a large scale. Individual countries like France, which has announced a €45 billion stimulus program, have also exceeded expectations. | A week earlier, the European Commission unveiled a plan to raise €750 billion for pandemic recovery by selling bonds that would be backed by all 27 members of the European Union, a first for the bloc on such a large scale. Individual countries like France, which has announced a €45 billion stimulus program, have also exceeded expectations. |
| The speed of Europe’s response has come as a surprise, especially after the infighting and procrastination that marked leaders’ response to the eurozone debt crisis that began in 2010. The euro avoided collapse then only because the European Central Bank stepped in to prevent government borrowing costs from spinning out of control. This time, the central bank and governments have been acting in concert. | The speed of Europe’s response has come as a surprise, especially after the infighting and procrastination that marked leaders’ response to the eurozone debt crisis that began in 2010. The euro avoided collapse then only because the European Central Bank stepped in to prevent government borrowing costs from spinning out of control. This time, the central bank and governments have been acting in concert. |
| “Looking at what happened in the last two weeks, this is huge,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at ING Bank. “It looks as if Europe finally got the message.” | “Looking at what happened in the last two weeks, this is huge,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief eurozone economist at ING Bank. “It looks as if Europe finally got the message.” |
| The scale of the damage inflicted by the pandemic seems to have focused political leaders’ minds and helped them to overcome the divisions and indecisiveness that hampered crisis fighting in the past. The European Central Bank’s staff economists on Thursday forecast that the eurozone economy will slump by 9 percent this year, and said a deeper slump was possible. | The scale of the damage inflicted by the pandemic seems to have focused political leaders’ minds and helped them to overcome the divisions and indecisiveness that hampered crisis fighting in the past. The European Central Bank’s staff economists on Thursday forecast that the eurozone economy will slump by 9 percent this year, and said a deeper slump was possible. |
| Christine Lagarde, the central bank’s president, said Thursday that there “are some signs of a bottoming-out” in the economic decline, but “the improvement has so far been tepid.” | Christine Lagarde, the central bank’s president, said Thursday that there “are some signs of a bottoming-out” in the economic decline, but “the improvement has so far been tepid.” |
| Economic forecasts, she said during an online news conference, are “surrounded by an exceptional degree of uncertainty.” | Economic forecasts, she said during an online news conference, are “surrounded by an exceptional degree of uncertainty.” |
| At least for the moment, the technocratic approach taken by leaders like Ms. Merkel, President Emmanuel Macron of France and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, seems to have paid off. The rate of new coronavirus infections and deaths has dwindled in most of continental Europe, and countries have been able to start lifting their lockdowns without provoking a fresh outbreak. | At least for the moment, the technocratic approach taken by leaders like Ms. Merkel, President Emmanuel Macron of France and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, seems to have paid off. The rate of new coronavirus infections and deaths has dwindled in most of continental Europe, and countries have been able to start lifting their lockdowns without provoking a fresh outbreak. |
| Cafes in Paris are again serving patrons outdoors. Spain, which had one of the strictest lockdowns, has allowed people to leave their homes again. Italy has lifted restrictions on domestic travel and popular tourist sites like the Leaning Tower of Pisa have reopened. | Cafes in Paris are again serving patrons outdoors. Spain, which had one of the strictest lockdowns, has allowed people to leave their homes again. Italy has lifted restrictions on domestic travel and popular tourist sites like the Leaning Tower of Pisa have reopened. |
| Schools across Europe are reopening, though usually with reduced hours. Stores, gyms and restaurants are operating again in Germany, although patrons are required to wear masks and practice social distancing. The government in Berlin is preparing to lift restrictions on other Europeans coming into the country on June 15. | Schools across Europe are reopening, though usually with reduced hours. Stores, gyms and restaurants are operating again in Germany, although patrons are required to wear masks and practice social distancing. The government in Berlin is preparing to lift restrictions on other Europeans coming into the country on June 15. |
| Risks abound, and it is not out of the question that European leaders could revert to old habits. The European Commission’s €750 billion stimulus package could run into trouble as it goes through the approval process, which requires ratification by European Union countries and the European Parliament. | Risks abound, and it is not out of the question that European leaders could revert to old habits. The European Commission’s €750 billion stimulus package could run into trouble as it goes through the approval process, which requires ratification by European Union countries and the European Parliament. |
| Although Germany has changed its approach, other traditionally frugal countries have voiced their resistance to money’s being paid out as grants instead of loans to be paid back. They include Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden, which have become known as the “frugal four.” | Although Germany has changed its approach, other traditionally frugal countries have voiced their resistance to money’s being paid out as grants instead of loans to be paid back. They include Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands and Sweden, which have become known as the “frugal four.” |
| But Germany’s about-face on government spending illustrates how much attitudes have changed. Only a few months ago, German leaders were lecturing other European countries on the virtues of austerity. Now, they are the continent’s big spenders. | But Germany’s about-face on government spending illustrates how much attitudes have changed. Only a few months ago, German leaders were lecturing other European countries on the virtues of austerity. Now, they are the continent’s big spenders. |
| Under the plan announced by the German government late Wednesday, households will receive €300, or about $336, per child; pay a reduced value added tax on daily items; and receive a cut in their electricity bills. | Under the plan announced by the German government late Wednesday, households will receive €300, or about $336, per child; pay a reduced value added tax on daily items; and receive a cut in their electricity bills. |
| Updated July 7, 2020 | |
| The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. | Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles. |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| The plan also includes €5.3 billion for the social security system, €10 billion to help municipalities cover housing and other costs, and €1.9 billion for cultural institutions and nonprofit groups. It includes incentives to buy electric vehicles, but none for gas- or diesel-fired engines, which Germany’s powerful automakers had sought. | The plan also includes €5.3 billion for the social security system, €10 billion to help municipalities cover housing and other costs, and €1.9 billion for cultural institutions and nonprofit groups. It includes incentives to buy electric vehicles, but none for gas- or diesel-fired engines, which Germany’s powerful automakers had sought. |
| The plan requires new borrowing. Ms. Merkel’s government abandoned its adherence to a balanced budget in March, when it passed a €750 billion rescue package that included taking on more than €150 billion of fresh debt. The latest package will also be financed by new borrowing, reflecting government concerns that millions of employees still need incentives to encourage spending. | The plan requires new borrowing. Ms. Merkel’s government abandoned its adherence to a balanced budget in March, when it passed a €750 billion rescue package that included taking on more than €150 billion of fresh debt. The latest package will also be financed by new borrowing, reflecting government concerns that millions of employees still need incentives to encourage spending. |
| Germany’s unemployment rate, 3.5 percent, is still extremely low. But one-fifth of the country’s workers are furloughed or working reduced hours because of the pandemic, with the government making up most of the lost wages. Many of those people could become officially unemployed if their employers shut down for good or reduce in size. | Germany’s unemployment rate, 3.5 percent, is still extremely low. But one-fifth of the country’s workers are furloughed or working reduced hours because of the pandemic, with the government making up most of the lost wages. Many of those people could become officially unemployed if their employers shut down for good or reduce in size. |
| “We need to get out of this crisis with an oomph,” the finance minister, Olaf Scholz, said. | “We need to get out of this crisis with an oomph,” the finance minister, Olaf Scholz, said. |
| Ms. Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, also seems to have found her footing after some verbal gaffes early in her tenure, which began in November. | Ms. Lagarde, the European Central Bank president, also seems to have found her footing after some verbal gaffes early in her tenure, which began in November. |
| The bank, sometimes criticized by analysts for reacting too late to crises, exceeded expectations Thursday when it decided to step up purchases of government and corporate bonds by another €600 billion, or $675 billion. The bond buying helps push down market interest rates and make credit cheaper. | The bank, sometimes criticized by analysts for reacting too late to crises, exceeded expectations Thursday when it decided to step up purchases of government and corporate bonds by another €600 billion, or $675 billion. The bond buying helps push down market interest rates and make credit cheaper. |
| The decision will increase the total bond purchases promised by the central bank since the pandemic began to €1.35 trillion, which will be spent over the coming year. That is on top of stimulus measures already in place, including a program that allows commercial banks to borrow money from the central bank at a rate of minus 1 percent if they promise to lend the money on to other customers and meet certain other conditions. In effect, the central bank is paying lenders to take its money. | The decision will increase the total bond purchases promised by the central bank since the pandemic began to €1.35 trillion, which will be spent over the coming year. That is on top of stimulus measures already in place, including a program that allows commercial banks to borrow money from the central bank at a rate of minus 1 percent if they promise to lend the money on to other customers and meet certain other conditions. In effect, the central bank is paying lenders to take its money. |
| The bank also demonstrated Thursday that it would not be intimidated by Germany’s constitutional court, which issued a decision last month suggesting the bond buying is illegal. | The bank also demonstrated Thursday that it would not be intimidated by Germany’s constitutional court, which issued a decision last month suggesting the bond buying is illegal. |
| Ms. Lagarde said during her news conference that a solution to the legal impasse that was in the works “will in no way compromise the independence of the E.C.B.” | Ms. Lagarde said during her news conference that a solution to the legal impasse that was in the works “will in no way compromise the independence of the E.C.B.” |