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All 50 States Are Now Reopening. But at What Cost? All 50 States Are Now Reopening. But at What Cost?
(about 16 hours later)
In Connecticut, flags that had been lowered during the somber peak of the coronavirus pandemic were raised to full-staff on Wednesday to signal a return to business.In Connecticut, flags that had been lowered during the somber peak of the coronavirus pandemic were raised to full-staff on Wednesday to signal a return to business.
In Kentucky, gift shops creaked open their doors.In Kentucky, gift shops creaked open their doors.
And across Alaska, restaurants, bars and gyms, which have been open to small numbers of customers for weeks, were getting ready to rev back up to full capacity. “It will all be open,” Gov. Mike Dunleavy announced, “just like it was prior to the virus.”And across Alaska, restaurants, bars and gyms, which have been open to small numbers of customers for weeks, were getting ready to rev back up to full capacity. “It will all be open,” Gov. Mike Dunleavy announced, “just like it was prior to the virus.”
The United States has crossed an uneasy threshold with all 50 states beginning to reopen in some way, two months after the coronavirus thrust the country into lockdown. But there are vast variations in how states are deciding to open up, with some forging far ahead of others.The United States has crossed an uneasy threshold with all 50 states beginning to reopen in some way, two months after the coronavirus thrust the country into lockdown. But there are vast variations in how states are deciding to open up, with some forging far ahead of others.
The increasing moves to lift restrictions on businesses — or at least open up outdoor spaces like beaches and state parks — reflect the immense political and societal pressures weighing on the nation’s governors, even as epidemiologists remain cautious and warn of a second wave of cases.The increasing moves to lift restrictions on businesses — or at least open up outdoor spaces like beaches and state parks — reflect the immense political and societal pressures weighing on the nation’s governors, even as epidemiologists remain cautious and warn of a second wave of cases.
With millions of people out of work and many Americans entering their third month isolated at home, the push to take action rivals what states faced at the beginning of the crisis, when governors were urged to shut down.With millions of people out of work and many Americans entering their third month isolated at home, the push to take action rivals what states faced at the beginning of the crisis, when governors were urged to shut down.
“You have 50 different governors doing 50 different things,” said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “There will be states that open too soon or states that are too conservative. It is hard to thread the needle.”“You have 50 different governors doing 50 different things,” said Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine. “There will be states that open too soon or states that are too conservative. It is hard to thread the needle.”
But if reopening has become a buzz word among politicians — many states have issued sweeping documents with color-coded plans to “rebound” and “bounce back” — life remains far from normal in most places across America. Even in Georgia, which opened many businesses last month ahead of other states, restaurants are seeing only about 15 percent of normal traffic, according to data published by OpenTable, a restaurant reservation website.But if reopening has become a buzz word among politicians — many states have issued sweeping documents with color-coded plans to “rebound” and “bounce back” — life remains far from normal in most places across America. Even in Georgia, which opened many businesses last month ahead of other states, restaurants are seeing only about 15 percent of normal traffic, according to data published by OpenTable, a restaurant reservation website.
The White House has said that states should have a “downward trajectory” of cases over a 14-day period before reopening, but many states reopened well short of meeting those benchmarks. Some epidemiologists see warning signs of a rebound, especially in the South, and because it can take as long as three weeks for a newly infected person to become sick enough to go to the hospital, the impact of reopening is unlikely to be detectable immediately.The White House has said that states should have a “downward trajectory” of cases over a 14-day period before reopening, but many states reopened well short of meeting those benchmarks. Some epidemiologists see warning signs of a rebound, especially in the South, and because it can take as long as three weeks for a newly infected person to become sick enough to go to the hospital, the impact of reopening is unlikely to be detectable immediately.
“We really are playing with fire here in a very broad sense," said Charles Courtemanche, an economist at the University of Kentucky. In a recent paper for the journal Health Affairs, he estimated that the number of confirmed cases in the United States, which reached a million at the end of April, would have been closer to 35 million without the restaurant closures and stay-at-home orders that began in mid-March. “Just because it hasn’t been a catastrophe yet in your state, doesn’t mean it doesn’t have the potential to be,” he said.“We really are playing with fire here in a very broad sense," said Charles Courtemanche, an economist at the University of Kentucky. In a recent paper for the journal Health Affairs, he estimated that the number of confirmed cases in the United States, which reached a million at the end of April, would have been closer to 35 million without the restaurant closures and stay-at-home orders that began in mid-March. “Just because it hasn’t been a catastrophe yet in your state, doesn’t mean it doesn’t have the potential to be,” he said.
Ipakoi Grigoriadis was left to navigate the complexities while fielding breakfast orders at her family’s diner, Pop’s Family Restaurant, in Milford, Conn., which reopened to outdoor dining on Wednesday as Connecticut lifted its stay-at-home order and allowed some businesses to reopen.Ipakoi Grigoriadis was left to navigate the complexities while fielding breakfast orders at her family’s diner, Pop’s Family Restaurant, in Milford, Conn., which reopened to outdoor dining on Wednesday as Connecticut lifted its stay-at-home order and allowed some businesses to reopen.
“It is still a little scary considering we don’t exactly know what this is,” said Ms. Grigoriadis, who said the restaurant was taking a number of precautions. Employees were instructed to wear masks and gloves at all times, she said, and patrons were expected to wear masks while at the restaurant as well — “except when they are eating and drinking.”“It is still a little scary considering we don’t exactly know what this is,” said Ms. Grigoriadis, who said the restaurant was taking a number of precautions. Employees were instructed to wear masks and gloves at all times, she said, and patrons were expected to wear masks while at the restaurant as well — “except when they are eating and drinking.”
Connecticut was among the last states to take the plunge toward reopening, representing the more cautious approach that has defined much of the Northeast. New York, which has seen by far the most cases and deaths in the nation, is proceeding with a regional reopening that excludes hard-hit New York City. In Washington, D.C., a stay-at-home order is in effect until June and the surrounding region remains closed.Connecticut was among the last states to take the plunge toward reopening, representing the more cautious approach that has defined much of the Northeast. New York, which has seen by far the most cases and deaths in the nation, is proceeding with a regional reopening that excludes hard-hit New York City. In Washington, D.C., a stay-at-home order is in effect until June and the surrounding region remains closed.
Several states on the West Coast and certain Democratic-led states in the Midwest have also moved slowly, taking a regional or step-by-step approach.Several states on the West Coast and certain Democratic-led states in the Midwest have also moved slowly, taking a regional or step-by-step approach.
By contrast, a number of states in the South opened earlier and more fully. Businesses have been open with social distancing requirements for nearly a month in Georgia, where the number of new cases has remained more or less the same. Mississippi saw its largest single-day increase in reported cases and deaths only after the state began to reopen.By contrast, a number of states in the South opened earlier and more fully. Businesses have been open with social distancing requirements for nearly a month in Georgia, where the number of new cases has remained more or less the same. Mississippi saw its largest single-day increase in reported cases and deaths only after the state began to reopen.
The variation illustrates the political and regional differences that have come to define the state-by-state response to the coronavirus, as governors navigate a pandemic that comes with no political playbook.The variation illustrates the political and regional differences that have come to define the state-by-state response to the coronavirus, as governors navigate a pandemic that comes with no political playbook.
Texas, the nation’s second-largest state, with 29 million residents, had among the shortest stay-at-home orders in the country when it reopened many businesses on May 1, in a move that appealed to the state’s pro-business spirit. But weeks later, officials reported the highest one-day total of new cases, and some fear many businesses will still not survive.Texas, the nation’s second-largest state, with 29 million residents, had among the shortest stay-at-home orders in the country when it reopened many businesses on May 1, in a move that appealed to the state’s pro-business spirit. But weeks later, officials reported the highest one-day total of new cases, and some fear many businesses will still not survive.
Of the more than 50,000 restaurants in Texas, 12 percent have gone out of business because of the pandemic, said Emily Williams Knight, chief executive of the Texas Restaurant Association. She said she expected that up to 30 percent would “not make it through the crisis.” The state’s restaurant industry has already lost 700,000 jobs, she said, and would most likely lose more.Of the more than 50,000 restaurants in Texas, 12 percent have gone out of business because of the pandemic, said Emily Williams Knight, chief executive of the Texas Restaurant Association. She said she expected that up to 30 percent would “not make it through the crisis.” The state’s restaurant industry has already lost 700,000 jobs, she said, and would most likely lose more.
“I think you see customers now having an emotional impact of driving up and having a restaurant they’ve spent years at simply closed, with a note saying, ‘Thank you for your patronage over the years,’” she said.“I think you see customers now having an emotional impact of driving up and having a restaurant they’ve spent years at simply closed, with a note saying, ‘Thank you for your patronage over the years,’” she said.
While scores of restaurants flounder or even collapse, El Arroyo, a popular Mexican restaurant at the western edge of downtown Austin, found a ticket to survival with a savvy marketing move — the sale of to-go margaritas. The restaurant has since begun serving customers on its patio and will return to indoor dining when Texas allows restaurants to expand to 50 percent capacity for indoor sales from 25 percent, starting Friday.While scores of restaurants flounder or even collapse, El Arroyo, a popular Mexican restaurant at the western edge of downtown Austin, found a ticket to survival with a savvy marketing move — the sale of to-go margaritas. The restaurant has since begun serving customers on its patio and will return to indoor dining when Texas allows restaurants to expand to 50 percent capacity for indoor sales from 25 percent, starting Friday.
“We’re full,” said Shane Thompson, the manager. “People are happy to be out and about.”“We’re full,” said Shane Thompson, the manager. “People are happy to be out and about.”
In Louisville, Ky., a handful of customers browsed through the bourbon, horse-themed jewelry and collectible items that stocked the Kentucky Derby Museum gift shop on Wednesday, when the state lifted restrictions on retail stores.In Louisville, Ky., a handful of customers browsed through the bourbon, horse-themed jewelry and collectible items that stocked the Kentucky Derby Museum gift shop on Wednesday, when the state lifted restrictions on retail stores.
Updated June 5, 2020Updated June 5, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
“We really didn’t know what to expect,” said Rachel Collier, a spokeswoman for the museum, which remains closed even as the gift shop opened back up. She said the museum’s revenue had declined by 95 percent during the pandemic, which also forced the Kentucky Derby to be postponed for the first time in 75 years.“We really didn’t know what to expect,” said Rachel Collier, a spokeswoman for the museum, which remains closed even as the gift shop opened back up. She said the museum’s revenue had declined by 95 percent during the pandemic, which also forced the Kentucky Derby to be postponed for the first time in 75 years.
Even without the boon of tourism, she said, a small but steady stream of customers drifted through the gift shop on Wednesday, many eager to buy cups engraved with this year’s canceled derby date. “We are pleasantly surprised,” she said.Even without the boon of tourism, she said, a small but steady stream of customers drifted through the gift shop on Wednesday, many eager to buy cups engraved with this year’s canceled derby date. “We are pleasantly surprised,” she said.
Researchers expect that reopening the United States could cause thousands of additional deaths, while also saving several million jobs, a balancing act that has swung more toward the economy in recent weeks.Researchers expect that reopening the United States could cause thousands of additional deaths, while also saving several million jobs, a balancing act that has swung more toward the economy in recent weeks.
A forecast from the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that the number of cumulative deaths from the virus in the United States would rise to 157,000 from the current about 92,000 by the end of July if states maintained restrictions. A partial or full reopening could bring an additional 15,000 or 73,000 deaths, respectively.A forecast from the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that the number of cumulative deaths from the virus in the United States would rise to 157,000 from the current about 92,000 by the end of July if states maintained restrictions. A partial or full reopening could bring an additional 15,000 or 73,000 deaths, respectively.
Researchers found that the biggest risk for negative health outcomes was probably not state regulations, but people’s own behavior. If Americans get out of the habit of social distancing — returning to their pre-pandemic behavior by not wearing masks or staying six feet apart — the forecast predicted that deaths could rise by as many as 135,000.Researchers found that the biggest risk for negative health outcomes was probably not state regulations, but people’s own behavior. If Americans get out of the habit of social distancing — returning to their pre-pandemic behavior by not wearing masks or staying six feet apart — the forecast predicted that deaths could rise by as many as 135,000.
“Everyone wants us to talk about policy, but in fact personal behavior still matters a lot here,” said Kent Smetters, the faculty director at the Penn Wharton Budget Model.“Everyone wants us to talk about policy, but in fact personal behavior still matters a lot here,” said Kent Smetters, the faculty director at the Penn Wharton Budget Model.
Many are still hesitant. A new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that most Americans were somewhat concerned that lifting restrictions in their area would lead to new infections, and at least half were very or extremely concerned. About six in 10 people were in favor of people remaining in their homes except for essential needs.Many are still hesitant. A new poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that most Americans were somewhat concerned that lifting restrictions in their area would lead to new infections, and at least half were very or extremely concerned. About six in 10 people were in favor of people remaining in their homes except for essential needs.
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Mary Lou Giles, a 73-year-old resident of El Dorado County, Calif., said that she and her husband planned to shelter in place for another several weeks, though businesses in her remote mountain county between Sacramento and Lake Tahoe were allowed to reopen sooner than in other parts of the state.Mary Lou Giles, a 73-year-old resident of El Dorado County, Calif., said that she and her husband planned to shelter in place for another several weeks, though businesses in her remote mountain county between Sacramento and Lake Tahoe were allowed to reopen sooner than in other parts of the state.
“I sincerely hope there will not be a surge in Covid cases as a result of what I believe is a premature rush to reopen,” she said. “But I’m not willing to gamble.”“I sincerely hope there will not be a surge in Covid cases as a result of what I believe is a premature rush to reopen,” she said. “But I’m not willing to gamble.”
Reporting was contributed by David Montgomery, Sarah Maslin Nir, Jill Cowan and Mike Baker.Reporting was contributed by David Montgomery, Sarah Maslin Nir, Jill Cowan and Mike Baker.