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On Politics: The Economy’s Biggest Threat Is … On Politics: The Economy’s Biggest Threat Is …
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Good morning and welcome to On Politics, a daily political analysis of the 2020 elections based on reporting by New York Times journalists.Good morning and welcome to On Politics, a daily political analysis of the 2020 elections based on reporting by New York Times journalists.
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What’s the bigger threat to the economy: a lack of government action to shore it up, or lockdowns that keep businesses closed? The Senate Banking Committee heard two different arguments from two different sources on Tuesday, when Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, testified in a joint appearance. Mnuchin warned of “permanent damage” to the economy if businesses weren’t allowed to reopen soon. Powell, on the other hand, has suggested repeatedly that Congress may need to spend more to confront the coronavirus’s effects; speaking to the committee, he emphasized the dangers of reopening too hastily. “The No. 1 thing, of course, is people believing that it’s safe to go back to work,” Powell said. “And that’s about having a sensible, thoughtful reopening of the economy.”What’s the bigger threat to the economy: a lack of government action to shore it up, or lockdowns that keep businesses closed? The Senate Banking Committee heard two different arguments from two different sources on Tuesday, when Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, testified in a joint appearance. Mnuchin warned of “permanent damage” to the economy if businesses weren’t allowed to reopen soon. Powell, on the other hand, has suggested repeatedly that Congress may need to spend more to confront the coronavirus’s effects; speaking to the committee, he emphasized the dangers of reopening too hastily. “The No. 1 thing, of course, is people believing that it’s safe to go back to work,” Powell said. “And that’s about having a sensible, thoughtful reopening of the economy.”
Bringing things back into operation mid-pandemic can be a halting process — especially when many major decisions about how and when to reopen aren’t being made at the federal level. Colleges and universities are deciding whether to hold in-person classes next fall, and students are waiting with bated breath, some of them wondering if it’s worth it to enroll at all. Meanwhile, some churches that had resumed in-person gatherings are developing a case of reopener’s remorse. Holy Ghost Catholic Church in Houston, for instance, closed again after a priest who had pneumonia died and five leaders tested positive last weekend for the coronavirus. At a single church in Arkansas, 35 of the 92 people who had attended over a six-day period later tested positive for the virus, and three died, according to a report released yesterday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Bringing things back into operation mid-pandemic can be a halting process — especially when many major decisions about how and when to reopen aren’t being made at the federal level. Colleges and universities are deciding whether to hold in-person classes next fall, and students are waiting with bated breath, some of them wondering if it’s worth it to enroll at all. Meanwhile, some churches that had resumed in-person gatherings are developing a case of reopener’s remorse. Holy Ghost Catholic Church in Houston, for instance, closed again after a priest who had pneumonia died and five leaders tested positive last weekend for the coronavirus. At a single church in Arkansas, 35 of the 92 people who had attended over a six-day period later tested positive for the virus, and three died, according to a report released yesterday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
President Trump this week has turned up his criticism of the World Health Organization, continuing his attempts to blame the U.N. agency, along with China, for the spread of the virus, which has now killed over 90,000 Americans. Trump sent a letter on Monday night threatening to permanently cut off the United States’ funding for the group unless it committed to “major, substantive improvements” within 30 days. But yesterday, at the organization’s annual meeting in Geneva, the leaders of other member nations basically called Trump’s bluff, all but ignoring his demands and instead saying they would begin an “impartial, independent” investigation into the W.H.O.’s response to the pandemic. In any case, Trump would need Congress’s approval to withhold funding from the organization, and many analysts say that’s unlikely to happen. Chinese, Russian and European Union officials have reproached Trump for his comments, again leaving the United States to stand mostly alone on the world stage.President Trump this week has turned up his criticism of the World Health Organization, continuing his attempts to blame the U.N. agency, along with China, for the spread of the virus, which has now killed over 90,000 Americans. Trump sent a letter on Monday night threatening to permanently cut off the United States’ funding for the group unless it committed to “major, substantive improvements” within 30 days. But yesterday, at the organization’s annual meeting in Geneva, the leaders of other member nations basically called Trump’s bluff, all but ignoring his demands and instead saying they would begin an “impartial, independent” investigation into the W.H.O.’s response to the pandemic. In any case, Trump would need Congress’s approval to withhold funding from the organization, and many analysts say that’s unlikely to happen. Chinese, Russian and European Union officials have reproached Trump for his comments, again leaving the United States to stand mostly alone on the world stage.
Joe Biden also has his eyes on foreign policy. Sooner or later, in his dance between the center and the left, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee knew he would have to confront the party’s evolving stance on the United States-Israel relationship. And that’s what he sought to do Tuesday on a call with donors, as he affirmed his support of Israel (“unshakable,” he said) but criticized Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s conservative prime minister, a close ally of Trump’s. Biden said Netanyahu had moved “so, so far to the right,” and he called on the Israeli government to “stop the threat of annexation” of the West Bank territories, according to a pool report. “It’ll choke off any hope of peace,” Biden said. Criticizing the Israeli government on the campaign trail was basically verboten just a few years ago. But as Israel’s policies have moved generally rightward, the average Democratic voter has grown markedly more liberal — and views on Israel are no exception. When asked last year in a Gallup poll whether they had more sympathy for the situation of Israelis or Palestinians, liberal Democrats were almost evenly split. That was the first time on record this has been true.Joe Biden also has his eyes on foreign policy. Sooner or later, in his dance between the center and the left, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee knew he would have to confront the party’s evolving stance on the United States-Israel relationship. And that’s what he sought to do Tuesday on a call with donors, as he affirmed his support of Israel (“unshakable,” he said) but criticized Benjamin Netanyahu, the country’s conservative prime minister, a close ally of Trump’s. Biden said Netanyahu had moved “so, so far to the right,” and he called on the Israeli government to “stop the threat of annexation” of the West Bank territories, according to a pool report. “It’ll choke off any hope of peace,” Biden said. Criticizing the Israeli government on the campaign trail was basically verboten just a few years ago. But as Israel’s policies have moved generally rightward, the average Democratic voter has grown markedly more liberal — and views on Israel are no exception. When asked last year in a Gallup poll whether they had more sympathy for the situation of Israelis or Palestinians, liberal Democrats were almost evenly split. That was the first time on record this has been true.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s testimony before a virtual hearing of the Senate Banking Committee was shown on televisions in the Capitol.Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s testimony before a virtual hearing of the Senate Banking Committee was shown on televisions in the Capitol.
By Astead W. HerndonBy Astead W. Herndon
Eliot Engel, a 16-term Democratic congressman from New York, faces a primary challenge next month from Jamaal Bowman, a progressive educator.Eliot Engel, a 16-term Democratic congressman from New York, faces a primary challenge next month from Jamaal Bowman, a progressive educator.
Bowman faces an uphill battle, but he has received support from a number of national grass-roots groups ahead of the June 23 primary. Yet the Congressional Black Caucus PAC has decided to back Engel, who is white, over his black challenger — a move that has garnered some criticism. In a statement, Bowman called the decision “disappointing,” and allies said it was proof that the black caucus cared more about incumbency than increasing racial representation.Bowman faces an uphill battle, but he has received support from a number of national grass-roots groups ahead of the June 23 primary. Yet the Congressional Black Caucus PAC has decided to back Engel, who is white, over his black challenger — a move that has garnered some criticism. In a statement, Bowman called the decision “disappointing,” and allies said it was proof that the black caucus cared more about incumbency than increasing racial representation.
In a phone interview this week, Gregory Meeks, also a New York congressman and the chair of the black caucus’s political arm, defended the decision.In a phone interview this week, Gregory Meeks, also a New York congressman and the chair of the black caucus’s political arm, defended the decision.
Gregory Meeks: Our criteria, when it comes to incumbents — it comes down to what they’ve done while they’re in Washington. How have they voted on issues that are important to the Congressional Black Caucus? What’s their relationship with African-Americans in their district?Gregory Meeks: Our criteria, when it comes to incumbents — it comes down to what they’ve done while they’re in Washington. How have they voted on issues that are important to the Congressional Black Caucus? What’s their relationship with African-Americans in their district?
Astead Herndon: And none of that calculus changes if the incumbent is facing a black challenger?Astead Herndon: And none of that calculus changes if the incumbent is facing a black challenger?
Just like I would if there was a black incumbent against a white challenger, we go by the merits of what they’ve done while they’re in Washington, D.C.Just like I would if there was a black incumbent against a white challenger, we go by the merits of what they’ve done while they’re in Washington, D.C.
So would it be fair to say that incumbency, in the eyes of the C.B.C. PAC, is a higher priority than the question of racial representation?So would it be fair to say that incumbency, in the eyes of the C.B.C. PAC, is a higher priority than the question of racial representation?
No. We want someone who is voting and listening to the African-American community, that’s what’s important. We look at the voting record, and if you’re an incumbent we can see that. Eliot Engel has voted in a way that’s beneficial to his African-American community.No. We want someone who is voting and listening to the African-American community, that’s what’s important. We look at the voting record, and if you’re an incumbent we can see that. Eliot Engel has voted in a way that’s beneficial to his African-American community.
I remember talking during the 2018 cycle, when the C.B.C. endorsed Representative Michael Capuano over Ayanna Pressley. You gave similar reasons at the time when, clearly, the people of color who voted in that race felt differently. Has any thought been given to these outcomes? Have you changed anything about the endorsement process now that more black challengers are running?I remember talking during the 2018 cycle, when the C.B.C. endorsed Representative Michael Capuano over Ayanna Pressley. You gave similar reasons at the time when, clearly, the people of color who voted in that race felt differently. Has any thought been given to these outcomes? Have you changed anything about the endorsement process now that more black challengers are running?
You pick one race. One race that went one way. But there’s many other races that went the other way and the incumbent won. When you looked at Michael Capuano’s record, he supported issues that were important to the Congressional Black Caucus. Otherwise, you’re telling members of Congress that even if they support issues that are important to the Congressional Black Caucus, we’ll have a blind eye to that.You pick one race. One race that went one way. But there’s many other races that went the other way and the incumbent won. When you looked at Michael Capuano’s record, he supported issues that were important to the Congressional Black Caucus. Otherwise, you’re telling members of Congress that even if they support issues that are important to the Congressional Black Caucus, we’ll have a blind eye to that.
Updated June 1, 2020
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.
Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities.
We believe in trying to make sure that people of color have the best representation possible.We believe in trying to make sure that people of color have the best representation possible.
Is there anything a black challenger can do that would get the Congressional Black Caucus to endorse them or sit out the race? Or is it all about the incumbent?Is there anything a black challenger can do that would get the Congressional Black Caucus to endorse them or sit out the race? Or is it all about the incumbent?
It’s about the record of the person while they were in Congress. And the relationships they have with the African-Americans they represent. That’s what we think is important.It’s about the record of the person while they were in Congress. And the relationships they have with the African-Americans they represent. That’s what we think is important.
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Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.