'As Reopening Starts, Americans Expect Recovery to Take Years' diff viewer (5/6)

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As Reopening Starts, Americans Expect Recovery to Take Years	As Reopening Starts, Americans Expect Recovery to Take Years
2020-06-10 00:58:35 UTC	2020-06-13 06:47:14 UTC (3 days later)
Businesses are beginning to reopen and new coronavirus cases are declining, but Americans don’t expect life — or the economy — to return to normal any time soon.	Businesses are beginning to reopen and new coronavirus cases are declining, but Americans don’t expect life — or the economy — to return to normal any time soon.
Only one in five Americans expects overall business conditions to be “very” or “somewhat” good over the next year, according to a poll conducted this month for The New York Times by the online research platform SurveyMonkey. Sixty percent said they expected the next five years to be characterized by “periods of widespread unemployment or depression.”	Only one in five Americans expects overall business conditions to be “very” or “somewhat” good over the next year, according to a poll conducted this month for The New York Times by the online research platform SurveyMonkey. Sixty percent said they expected the next five years to be characterized by “periods of widespread unemployment or depression.”
Those numbers are little changed from a month earlier, and may even reflect a slight decline in outlook, signaling that the reopenings and federal and state political moves to deal with the pandemic have had little impact on confidence.	Those numbers are little changed from a month earlier, and may even reflect a slight decline in outlook, signaling that the reopenings and federal and state political moves to deal with the pandemic have had little impact on confidence.
Other data tells a similar story. A survey from the University of Michigan last week found that consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions had improved modestly in early May, but that their view of the future had continued to darken.	Other data tells a similar story. A survey from the University of Michigan last week found that consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions had improved modestly in early May, but that their view of the future had continued to darken.
Consumers have good reason for that pessimism. Economists, who once expected a swift, “V-shaped” recovery, now say unemployment is likely to remain elevated for years. In testimony before a Senate committee on Tuesday, Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, both warned that further job losses were likely — although they disagreed sharply about the best policies to foster growth.	Consumers have good reason for that pessimism. Economists, who once expected a swift, “V-shaped” recovery, now say unemployment is likely to remain elevated for years. In testimony before a Senate committee on Tuesday, Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, both warned that further job losses were likely — although they disagreed sharply about the best policies to foster growth.
Consumers’ bleak outlook, however justified, could have serious implications for the economic recovery. If Americans fear that their jobs are in jeopardy or that business will remain slow, they may be less likely to spend even if their personal finances are stable.	Consumers’ bleak outlook, however justified, could have serious implications for the economic recovery. If Americans fear that their jobs are in jeopardy or that business will remain slow, they may be less likely to spend even if their personal finances are stable.
Emily Williams, a financial analyst for a mortgage servicing company in South Carolina, has been able to do her job remotely. Her husband, who sells tires for construction equipment, has lost some work, but they have saved money on day care now that both are at home.	Emily Williams, a financial analyst for a mortgage servicing company in South Carolina, has been able to do her job remotely. Her husband, who sells tires for construction equipment, has lost some work, but they have saved money on day care now that both are at home.
Ms. Williams is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for an economic recovery, which she thinks will be faster than after the 2008-9 recession. But she and her husband are saving money and preparing for the worst.	Ms. Williams is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for an economic recovery, which she thinks will be faster than after the 2008-9 recession. But she and her husband are saving money and preparing for the worst.
“Obviously we’re very thankful for our situation, but it also makes us kind of cautious,” she said. “We’re making sure that we save, because we don’t know what’s going to happen, especially with my husband’s job. We’re kind of preparing in case we later are impacted.”	“Obviously we’re very thankful for our situation, but it also makes us kind of cautious,” she said. “We’re making sure that we save, because we don’t know what’s going to happen, especially with my husband’s job. We’re kind of preparing in case we later are impacted.”
Among those surveyed who were working before the pandemic, about one in 10 had lost their jobs in the last two months, and roughly one-third had had their hours cut or otherwise lost income. Of those who had kept their jobs, about one in three were at least somewhat worried about losing them.	Among those surveyed who were working before the pandemic, about one in 10 had lost their jobs in the last two months, and roughly one-third had had their hours cut or otherwise lost income. Of those who had kept their jobs, about one in three were at least somewhat worried about losing them.
Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans, as they have been throughout President Trump’s term. But confidence has fallen sharply among members of both parties. In February, before the coronavirus outbreak began to spread widely in the United States, nearly 80 percent of Republicans said they expected business conditions over the next year to be good; in May, just 35 percent said so. Among Democrats, that share fell to 8 percent from 18 percent.	Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans, as they have been throughout President Trump’s term. But confidence has fallen sharply among members of both parties. In February, before the coronavirus outbreak began to spread widely in the United States, nearly 80 percent of Republicans said they expected business conditions over the next year to be good; in May, just 35 percent said so. Among Democrats, that share fell to 8 percent from 18 percent.
Perhaps the starkest divide, however, is between those who have already lost jobs and those who have been relatively unaffected by the pandemic’s economic toll.	Perhaps the starkest divide, however, is between those who have already lost jobs and those who have been relatively unaffected by the pandemic’s economic toll.
Among those who have kept their job and their hours, more than 80 percent say their finances are at least as good as a year ago. They are relatively unconcerned about the health risks of returning to work. Most are confident that their finances will remain steady over the next year, even as they worry about the broader economy.	Among those who have kept their job and their hours, more than 80 percent say their finances are at least as good as a year ago. They are relatively unconcerned about the health risks of returning to work. Most are confident that their finances will remain steady over the next year, even as they worry about the broader economy.
For those who have lost their jobs, however, the picture is different. Two-thirds say their finances have taken a hit, and most don’t expect their situation to improve over the next year. Many are skeptical that they will quickly find a new job, and are worried about the health risks if they do return to work. And despite the federal government’s steps to expand access to unemployment benefits during the crisis, most were not yet receiving benefits as of early May.	For those who have lost their jobs, however, the picture is different. Two-thirds say their finances have taken a hit, and most don’t expect their situation to improve over the next year. Many are skeptical that they will quickly find a new job, and are worried about the health risks if they do return to work. And despite the federal government’s steps to expand access to unemployment benefits during the crisis, most were not yet receiving benefits as of early May.
Eve Gutierrez, a massage therapist in the San Francisco Bay Area, has been unable to work since mid-March, when the pandemic shut down massage studios and other in-person businesses.	Eve Gutierrez, a massage therapist in the San Francisco Bay Area, has been unable to work since mid-March, when the pandemic shut down massage studios and other in-person businesses.
Ms. Gutierrez, 39, is self-employed, meaning she wouldn’t ordinarily qualify for unemployment benefits. The congressional aid package extended the system to cover workers like her. But she has yet to receive a check. She has been borrowing from her brother to pay rent and meet other expenses.	Ms. Gutierrez, 39, is self-employed, meaning she wouldn’t ordinarily qualify for unemployment benefits. The congressional aid package extended the system to cover workers like her. But she has yet to receive a check. She has been borrowing from her brother to pay rent and meet other expenses.
“There’s a lot of frustration,” she said. Without her brother, “I don’t know what I would have done.”	“There’s a lot of frustration,” she said. Without her brother, “I don’t know what I would have done.”
Ms. Gutierrez is optimistic that she’ll collect unemployment benefits. But they will be a stopgap. Massage studios fall under Phase 3 of California’s reopening plan, meaning it could be weeks or months before they are allowed to reopen in big cities.	Ms. Gutierrez is optimistic that she’ll collect unemployment benefits. But they will be a stopgap. Massage studios fall under Phase 3 of California’s reopening plan, meaning it could be weeks or months before they are allowed to reopen in big cities.
Even then, Ms. Gutierrez doesn’t know what business will look like. The massage therapy business in the Bay Area has thrived in recent years, in part because tech firms have offered in-office chair massages to their workers. Now those programs are suspended, and even when offices reopen, it isn’t clear whether companies will bring massages back in what is likely to be an era of cost-cutting.	Even then, Ms. Gutierrez doesn’t know what business will look like. The massage therapy business in the Bay Area has thrived in recent years, in part because tech firms have offered in-office chair massages to their workers. Now those programs are suspended, and even when offices reopen, it isn’t clear whether companies will bring massages back in what is likely to be an era of cost-cutting.
~~Updated June 5, 2020~~	Updated June 12, 2020
	Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.	So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.	A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.	The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.	Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.	Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.	States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.	Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)	If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.	Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.	The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.	If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.	If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Ms. Gutierrez said that after 12 years as a full-time massage therapist, she would probably have to find other work. But that, too, is daunting, with millions of other people unemployed.	Ms. Gutierrez said that after 12 years as a full-time massage therapist, she would probably have to find other work. But that, too, is daunting, with millions of other people unemployed.
“It’s definitely unsettling,” she said.	“It’s definitely unsettling,” she said.
For workers who have kept their jobs and are able to work from home, the experience has been different. They have kept their incomes, and in many cases their expenses have fallen, leaving them in better financial shape than before the crisis.	For workers who have kept their jobs and are able to work from home, the experience has been different. They have kept their incomes, and in many cases their expenses have fallen, leaving them in better financial shape than before the crisis.
Logynn Hailley lives in Austin, Texas, and works as an artist for a company that makes games like slot machines for mobile phones — a rare example of a business that is thriving at a time of stay-at-home orders. She has received three job offers since the pandemic began.	Logynn Hailley lives in Austin, Texas, and works as an artist for a company that makes games like slot machines for mobile phones — a rare example of a business that is thriving at a time of stay-at-home orders. She has received three job offers since the pandemic began.