'As Reopening Starts, Americans Expect Recovery to Take Years' diff viewer (14/15)

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As Reopening Starts, Americans Expect Recovery to Take Years	As Reopening Starts, Americans Expect Recovery to Take Years
2020-07-09 15:40:23 UTC	2020-07-17 20:24:38 UTC (8 days later)
Businesses are beginning to reopen and new coronavirus cases are declining, but Americans don’t expect life — or the economy — to return to normal any time soon.	Businesses are beginning to reopen and new coronavirus cases are declining, but Americans don’t expect life — or the economy — to return to normal any time soon.
Only one in five Americans expects overall business conditions to be “very” or “somewhat” good over the next year, according to a poll conducted this month for The New York Times by the online research platform SurveyMonkey. Sixty percent said they expected the next five years to be characterized by “periods of widespread unemployment or depression.”	Only one in five Americans expects overall business conditions to be “very” or “somewhat” good over the next year, according to a poll conducted this month for The New York Times by the online research platform SurveyMonkey. Sixty percent said they expected the next five years to be characterized by “periods of widespread unemployment or depression.”
Those numbers are little changed from a month earlier, and may even reflect a slight decline in outlook, signaling that the reopenings and federal and state political moves to deal with the pandemic have had little impact on confidence.	Those numbers are little changed from a month earlier, and may even reflect a slight decline in outlook, signaling that the reopenings and federal and state political moves to deal with the pandemic have had little impact on confidence.
Other data tells a similar story. A survey from the University of Michigan last week found that consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions had improved modestly in early May, but that their view of the future had continued to darken.	Other data tells a similar story. A survey from the University of Michigan last week found that consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions had improved modestly in early May, but that their view of the future had continued to darken.
Consumers have good reason for that pessimism. Economists, who once expected a swift, “V-shaped” recovery, now say unemployment is likely to remain elevated for years. In testimony before a Senate committee on Tuesday, Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, both warned that further job losses were likely — although they disagreed sharply about the best policies to foster growth.	Consumers have good reason for that pessimism. Economists, who once expected a swift, “V-shaped” recovery, now say unemployment is likely to remain elevated for years. In testimony before a Senate committee on Tuesday, Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, both warned that further job losses were likely — although they disagreed sharply about the best policies to foster growth.
Consumers’ bleak outlook, however justified, could have serious implications for the economic recovery. If Americans fear that their jobs are in jeopardy or that business will remain slow, they may be less likely to spend even if their personal finances are stable.	Consumers’ bleak outlook, however justified, could have serious implications for the economic recovery. If Americans fear that their jobs are in jeopardy or that business will remain slow, they may be less likely to spend even if their personal finances are stable.
Emily Williams, a financial analyst for a mortgage servicing company in South Carolina, has been able to do her job remotely. Her husband, who sells tires for construction equipment, has lost some work, but they have saved money on day care now that both are at home.	Emily Williams, a financial analyst for a mortgage servicing company in South Carolina, has been able to do her job remotely. Her husband, who sells tires for construction equipment, has lost some work, but they have saved money on day care now that both are at home.
Ms. Williams is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for an economic recovery, which she thinks will be faster than after the 2008-9 recession. But she and her husband are saving money and preparing for the worst.	Ms. Williams is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for an economic recovery, which she thinks will be faster than after the 2008-9 recession. But she and her husband are saving money and preparing for the worst.
“Obviously we’re very thankful for our situation, but it also makes us kind of cautious,” she said. “We’re making sure that we save, because we don’t know what’s going to happen, especially with my husband’s job. We’re kind of preparing in case we later are impacted.”	“Obviously we’re very thankful for our situation, but it also makes us kind of cautious,” she said. “We’re making sure that we save, because we don’t know what’s going to happen, especially with my husband’s job. We’re kind of preparing in case we later are impacted.”
Among those surveyed who were working before the pandemic, about one in 10 had lost their jobs in the last two months, and roughly one-third had had their hours cut or otherwise lost income. Of those who had kept their jobs, about one in three were at least somewhat worried about losing them.	Among those surveyed who were working before the pandemic, about one in 10 had lost their jobs in the last two months, and roughly one-third had had their hours cut or otherwise lost income. Of those who had kept their jobs, about one in three were at least somewhat worried about losing them.
Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans, as they have been throughout President Trump’s term. But confidence has fallen sharply among members of both parties. In February, before the coronavirus outbreak began to spread widely in the United States, nearly 80 percent of Republicans said they expected business conditions over the next year to be good; in May, just 35 percent said so. Among Democrats, that share fell to 8 percent from 18 percent.	Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans, as they have been throughout President Trump’s term. But confidence has fallen sharply among members of both parties. In February, before the coronavirus outbreak began to spread widely in the United States, nearly 80 percent of Republicans said they expected business conditions over the next year to be good; in May, just 35 percent said so. Among Democrats, that share fell to 8 percent from 18 percent.
Perhaps the starkest divide, however, is between those who have already lost jobs and those who have been relatively unaffected by the pandemic’s economic toll.	Perhaps the starkest divide, however, is between those who have already lost jobs and those who have been relatively unaffected by the pandemic’s economic toll.
Among those who have kept their job and their hours, more than 80 percent say their finances are at least as good as a year ago. They are relatively unconcerned about the health risks of returning to work. Most are confident that their finances will remain steady over the next year, even as they worry about the broader economy.	Among those who have kept their job and their hours, more than 80 percent say their finances are at least as good as a year ago. They are relatively unconcerned about the health risks of returning to work. Most are confident that their finances will remain steady over the next year, even as they worry about the broader economy.
For those who have lost their jobs, however, the picture is different. Two-thirds say their finances have taken a hit, and most don’t expect their situation to improve over the next year. Many are skeptical that they will quickly find a new job, and are worried about the health risks if they do return to work. And despite the federal government’s steps to expand access to unemployment benefits during the crisis, most were not yet receiving benefits as of early May.	For those who have lost their jobs, however, the picture is different. Two-thirds say their finances have taken a hit, and most don’t expect their situation to improve over the next year. Many are skeptical that they will quickly find a new job, and are worried about the health risks if they do return to work. And despite the federal government’s steps to expand access to unemployment benefits during the crisis, most were not yet receiving benefits as of early May.
Eve Gutierrez, a massage therapist in the San Francisco Bay Area, has been unable to work since mid-March, when the pandemic shut down massage studios and other in-person businesses.	Eve Gutierrez, a massage therapist in the San Francisco Bay Area, has been unable to work since mid-March, when the pandemic shut down massage studios and other in-person businesses.
Ms. Gutierrez, 39, is self-employed, meaning she wouldn’t ordinarily qualify for unemployment benefits. The congressional aid package extended the system to cover workers like her. But she has yet to receive a check. She has been borrowing from her brother to pay rent and meet other expenses.	Ms. Gutierrez, 39, is self-employed, meaning she wouldn’t ordinarily qualify for unemployment benefits. The congressional aid package extended the system to cover workers like her. But she has yet to receive a check. She has been borrowing from her brother to pay rent and meet other expenses.
“There’s a lot of frustration,” she said. Without her brother, “I don’t know what I would have done.”	“There’s a lot of frustration,” she said. Without her brother, “I don’t know what I would have done.”
Ms. Gutierrez is optimistic that she’ll collect unemployment benefits. But they will be a stopgap. Massage studios fall under Phase 3 of California’s reopening plan, meaning it could be weeks or months before they are allowed to reopen in big cities.	Ms. Gutierrez is optimistic that she’ll collect unemployment benefits. But they will be a stopgap. Massage studios fall under Phase 3 of California’s reopening plan, meaning it could be weeks or months before they are allowed to reopen in big cities.
~~Updated July 7, 2020~~
The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico.
The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth.
The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave.
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
Even then, Ms. Gutierrez doesn’t know what business will look like. The massage therapy business in the Bay Area has thrived in recent years, in part because tech firms have offered in-office chair massages to their workers. Now those programs are suspended, and even when offices reopen, it isn’t clear whether companies will bring massages back in what is likely to be an era of cost-cutting.	Even then, Ms. Gutierrez doesn’t know what business will look like. The massage therapy business in the Bay Area has thrived in recent years, in part because tech firms have offered in-office chair massages to their workers. Now those programs are suspended, and even when offices reopen, it isn’t clear whether companies will bring massages back in what is likely to be an era of cost-cutting.
Ms. Gutierrez said that after 12 years as a full-time massage therapist, she would probably have to find other work. But that, too, is daunting, with millions of other people unemployed.	Ms. Gutierrez said that after 12 years as a full-time massage therapist, she would probably have to find other work. But that, too, is daunting, with millions of other people unemployed.
“It’s definitely unsettling,” she said.	“It’s definitely unsettling,” she said.
For workers who have kept their jobs and are able to work from home, the experience has been different. They have kept their incomes, and in many cases their expenses have fallen, leaving them in better financial shape than before the crisis.	For workers who have kept their jobs and are able to work from home, the experience has been different. They have kept their incomes, and in many cases their expenses have fallen, leaving them in better financial shape than before the crisis.
Logynn Hailley lives in Austin, Texas, and works as an artist for a company that makes games like slot machines for mobile phones — a rare example of a business that is thriving at a time of stay-at-home orders. She has received three job offers since the pandemic began.	Logynn Hailley lives in Austin, Texas, and works as an artist for a company that makes games like slot machines for mobile phones — a rare example of a business that is thriving at a time of stay-at-home orders. She has received three job offers since the pandemic began.
Ms. Hailley’s life has changed in recent months, but it isn’t necessarily worse. She is working from home, doing yoga in the morning in place of her commute and cooking at home instead of eating out. Her only outings have been a handful of trips to the grocery store.	Ms. Hailley’s life has changed in recent months, but it isn’t necessarily worse. She is working from home, doing yoga in the morning in place of her commute and cooking at home instead of eating out. Her only outings have been a handful of trips to the grocery store.
“Other than that, my car hasn’t left the driveway, and I haven’t missed it personally at all,” she said.	“Other than that, my car hasn’t left the driveway, and I haven’t missed it personally at all,” she said.
Ms. Hailley, 40, said she felt fortunate, and a bit uncomfortable with how little she had been affected. She knows people who have lost jobs or gotten sick. She worries that states — including Texas — are opening up too quickly. She has stepped up her charitable giving.	Ms. Hailley, 40, said she felt fortunate, and a bit uncomfortable with how little she had been affected. She knows people who have lost jobs or gotten sick. She worries that states — including Texas — are opening up too quickly. She has stepped up her charitable giving.