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| Japan Falls Into Recession, and Worse Lies Ahead | Japan Falls Into Recession, and Worse Lies Ahead |
| (17 days later) | |
| Japan fell into a recession for the first time since 2015, as its already weakened economy was dragged down by the coronavirus’s impact on businesses at home and abroad. | Japan fell into a recession for the first time since 2015, as its already weakened economy was dragged down by the coronavirus’s impact on businesses at home and abroad. |
| The world’s third-largest economy after the United States and China shrank by an annualized rate of 3.4 percent in the first three months of the year, the country’s government said on Monday. | The world’s third-largest economy after the United States and China shrank by an annualized rate of 3.4 percent in the first three months of the year, the country’s government said on Monday. |
| That makes it the largest economy to officially enter a recession, often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, in the coronavirus era. Other major economies around the world are set to follow, joining Japan as well as Germany and France in recession, as efforts to contain the outbreak ripple around the globe. The experiences of China, where the outbreak first emerged in December and January, suggest recovery will be long and difficult. | That makes it the largest economy to officially enter a recession, often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, in the coronavirus era. Other major economies around the world are set to follow, joining Japan as well as Germany and France in recession, as efforts to contain the outbreak ripple around the globe. The experiences of China, where the outbreak first emerged in December and January, suggest recovery will be long and difficult. |
| Japan will find it no easier. Initial figures for the April-to-June period show its economy will be slammed by efforts to contain the outbreak. | Japan will find it no easier. Initial figures for the April-to-June period show its economy will be slammed by efforts to contain the outbreak. |
| “The economy entered the coronavirus shock in a very weak position,” said Izumi Devalier, chief Japan economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but “the real big ugly stuff is going to happen in the April, June print. It’s going to be three quarters of very negative growth.” | “The economy entered the coronavirus shock in a very weak position,” said Izumi Devalier, chief Japan economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, but “the real big ugly stuff is going to happen in the April, June print. It’s going to be three quarters of very negative growth.” |
| Ms. Devalier added, “It’s not a very encouraging picture.” | Ms. Devalier added, “It’s not a very encouraging picture.” |
| Businesses had already been staggering before the coronavirus hit. | Businesses had already been staggering before the coronavirus hit. |
| Consumer spending dropped after the Japanese government in October increased a tax on consumption to 10 percent from 8 percent, a move that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration said would help pay down the national debt — the highest among developed nations — and fund the growing demand for social services as the country’s workers age. | Consumer spending dropped after the Japanese government in October increased a tax on consumption to 10 percent from 8 percent, a move that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration said would help pay down the national debt — the highest among developed nations — and fund the growing demand for social services as the country’s workers age. |
| Days later, a typhoon slammed into the country’s main island, inflicting enormous damage and further driving down economic activity. | Days later, a typhoon slammed into the country’s main island, inflicting enormous damage and further driving down economic activity. |
| Even before that, Japanese export numbers had fallen steadily all last year on slowing global demand and the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. | Even before that, Japanese export numbers had fallen steadily all last year on slowing global demand and the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. |
| The situation has only worsened this year. The outbreak crushed Japan’s exports, forced it to postpone the Olympics and then put the country on a soft lockdown as it joined other nations scrambling to stop the coronavirus. | The situation has only worsened this year. The outbreak crushed Japan’s exports, forced it to postpone the Olympics and then put the country on a soft lockdown as it joined other nations scrambling to stop the coronavirus. |
| “The emergency declaration stopped people from going out, leading to a substantial decline in consumption,” said Kentaro Arita, a senior economist at the Mizuho Research Institute, a think tank in Tokyo. Now, he said, “it is going to be impossible to avoid an impact on the scale of the global financial crisis or even worse.” | “The emergency declaration stopped people from going out, leading to a substantial decline in consumption,” said Kentaro Arita, a senior economist at the Mizuho Research Institute, a think tank in Tokyo. Now, he said, “it is going to be impossible to avoid an impact on the scale of the global financial crisis or even worse.” |
| Schools shut down, the country closed itself off to most of the world and, in mid-April, Mr. Abe declared a national state of emergency that led many people to stay home from work and businesses to close. | Schools shut down, the country closed itself off to most of the world and, in mid-April, Mr. Abe declared a national state of emergency that led many people to stay home from work and businesses to close. |
| On the health front, the efforts seem to have paid off. Cases rose briefly before receding. The country’s health system never became overwhelmed. The total number of deaths attributed to the outbreak was under 750 as of Sunday, far lower than in other major developed nations. | On the health front, the efforts seem to have paid off. Cases rose briefly before receding. The country’s health system never became overwhelmed. The total number of deaths attributed to the outbreak was under 750 as of Sunday, far lower than in other major developed nations. |
| But each of those decisions had a profound economic impact. School closures forced parents to stay home from work and hammered farms and dairies that make their living selling ingredients for school lunches. Canceling foreign visas obliterated tourism and stopped a source of critical foreign labor. The emergency declaration has slowed or stopped work at many large companies and devastated the country’s many small and midsize enterprises, particularly those in the service sector. | But each of those decisions had a profound economic impact. School closures forced parents to stay home from work and hammered farms and dairies that make their living selling ingredients for school lunches. Canceling foreign visas obliterated tourism and stopped a source of critical foreign labor. The emergency declaration has slowed or stopped work at many large companies and devastated the country’s many small and midsize enterprises, particularly those in the service sector. |
| For more than a month, Tokyo’s bustling business districts have been largely shuttered. Foot traffic dropped by 70 percent at the world’s busiest train station in Shinjuku, according to a report by NHK, the public broadcaster. Tourist sites across the city that are normally thronged with visitors have been eerily quiet. | For more than a month, Tokyo’s bustling business districts have been largely shuttered. Foot traffic dropped by 70 percent at the world’s busiest train station in Shinjuku, according to a report by NHK, the public broadcaster. Tourist sites across the city that are normally thronged with visitors have been eerily quiet. |
| Last week, the streets of the trendy Harajuku shopping district — which typically attracts shoulder-to-shoulder crowds in good weather — were largely empty, with just a few pedestrians walking by boutiques that had closed or drastically cut back their hours. | Last week, the streets of the trendy Harajuku shopping district — which typically attracts shoulder-to-shoulder crowds in good weather — were largely empty, with just a few pedestrians walking by boutiques that had closed or drastically cut back their hours. |
| Recent data hints at the likely severity of the hit to the current quarter’s growth. | Recent data hints at the likely severity of the hit to the current quarter’s growth. |
| Visitors to Japan in March dropped by 93 percent year-on-year to just over 190,000 people, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. April’s consumer confidence index plummeted to a lower reading than in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis or the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown. Exports dropped by more than one-fifth in the first 20 days of the month alone. A monthly survey of economic watchers reached a historic low, concluding that “the already extremely severe economic conditions due to the impact of the coronavirus will worsen further.” | Visitors to Japan in March dropped by 93 percent year-on-year to just over 190,000 people, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. April’s consumer confidence index plummeted to a lower reading than in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis or the 2011 Fukushima nuclear meltdown. Exports dropped by more than one-fifth in the first 20 days of the month alone. A monthly survey of economic watchers reached a historic low, concluding that “the already extremely severe economic conditions due to the impact of the coronavirus will worsen further.” |
| April may prove to be the nadir. | April may prove to be the nadir. |
| On Friday, Mr. Abe announced he was lifting the state of emergency on all but eight of the country’s prefectures earlier than initially expected — a move that could give the economy a boost. The government will decide on next steps for the remaining areas, which include the economic powerhouses Tokyo and Osaka, within the month. | On Friday, Mr. Abe announced he was lifting the state of emergency on all but eight of the country’s prefectures earlier than initially expected — a move that could give the economy a boost. The government will decide on next steps for the remaining areas, which include the economic powerhouses Tokyo and Osaka, within the month. |
| Still, it could still be a long time before economic activity returns to anything approaching what it was, according to Sayuri Shirai, a professor of economics at Keio University in Tokyo and a former board member of the Bank of Japan. | Still, it could still be a long time before economic activity returns to anything approaching what it was, according to Sayuri Shirai, a professor of economics at Keio University in Tokyo and a former board member of the Bank of Japan. |
| Updated June 1, 2020 | |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | |
| More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said. | |
| Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea. | |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | |
| Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities. | |
| Tourism, which has been a small but important driver of growth, could take years to rebound, she said. Businesses such as hotels and restaurants that had taken out loans in anticipation of the Olympics might now find themselves unable to meet their obligations. | Tourism, which has been a small but important driver of growth, could take years to rebound, she said. Businesses such as hotels and restaurants that had taken out loans in anticipation of the Olympics might now find themselves unable to meet their obligations. |
| “Depending on the sectors that were generating economic growth before Covid-19 will not be possible in the coming years,” she said. | “Depending on the sectors that were generating economic growth before Covid-19 will not be possible in the coming years,” she said. |
| “For many years, I think private sector activity will be very weak. That means the government will have to continue to support economic activity.” | “For many years, I think private sector activity will be very weak. That means the government will have to continue to support economic activity.” |
| The government has already approved a $1.1 trillion stimulus package, a sum that would have seemed large a year ago. But with the United States having already committed nearly twice that amount to prop up its economy, Japan — which in the past was often criticized for its use of debt-funded stimulus — is in the unusual position of being chided for not spending enough on its recovery plan. | The government has already approved a $1.1 trillion stimulus package, a sum that would have seemed large a year ago. But with the United States having already committed nearly twice that amount to prop up its economy, Japan — which in the past was often criticized for its use of debt-funded stimulus — is in the unusual position of being chided for not spending enough on its recovery plan. |
| Mr. Abe on Thursday said the government was discussing more measures to prop up the economy. | Mr. Abe on Thursday said the government was discussing more measures to prop up the economy. |
| Job losses might be stemmed by Japan’s tight labor market and by rigid hiring practices that make it difficult to lay off employees. But keeping people in jobs is not sufficient to guarantee that domestic demand will recover, according to Ms. Devalier, of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. | Job losses might be stemmed by Japan’s tight labor market and by rigid hiring practices that make it difficult to lay off employees. But keeping people in jobs is not sufficient to guarantee that domestic demand will recover, according to Ms. Devalier, of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. |
| “Even though Japan will come out much better than other countries, particularly the United States, when it comes to the loss in employment, it doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a shock to wages and income and sentiment,” she said. | “Even though Japan will come out much better than other countries, particularly the United States, when it comes to the loss in employment, it doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a shock to wages and income and sentiment,” she said. |
| Those conditions can create an “adverse feedback loop,” Ms. Devalier said, where a weak recovery in demand makes people more cautious, driving down demand further. | Those conditions can create an “adverse feedback loop,” Ms. Devalier said, where a weak recovery in demand makes people more cautious, driving down demand further. |
| To avoid that, she said, will require more assistance for households and businesses: “It just comes down to the fact that the government is going to have to do more.” | To avoid that, she said, will require more assistance for households and businesses: “It just comes down to the fact that the government is going to have to do more.” |
| Makiko Inoue contributed reporting. | Makiko Inoue contributed reporting. |