This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/17/business/economy/fed-powell-economic-recovery.html

The article has changed 20 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 2 Version 3
Fed Chair Says Economic Recovery May ‘Stretch’ Through End of 2021 Fed Chair Says Economic Recovery May ‘Stretch’ Through End of 2021
(14 days later)
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said that the United States would have a slow recovery from what he called the “biggest shock that the economy’s had in living memory,” suggesting that a full rebound from virus-induced lockdowns could take until the end of 2021.Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said that the United States would have a slow recovery from what he called the “biggest shock that the economy’s had in living memory,” suggesting that a full rebound from virus-induced lockdowns could take until the end of 2021.
In an interview on “60 Minutes,” the CBS program, Mr. Powell reiterated that both Congress and the central bank may need to do more to help workers and businesses make it through the sudden and sharp slump caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus.In an interview on “60 Minutes,” the CBS program, Mr. Powell reiterated that both Congress and the central bank may need to do more to help workers and businesses make it through the sudden and sharp slump caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus.
“This economy will recover; it may take a while,” Mr. Powell said. “It may take a period of time, it could stretch through the end of next year, we really don't know.”“This economy will recover; it may take a while,” Mr. Powell said. “It may take a period of time, it could stretch through the end of next year, we really don't know.”
The Fed has rushed to insulate the economy as coronavirus lockdowns caused business activity to come to near standstill, leaving more than 20 million people jobless. But it remains an open question whether the central bank’s actions will be sufficient if it takes a long time for the economy to fully reopen, leaving businesses short on income for an extended period and increasing the risk that many will close.The Fed has rushed to insulate the economy as coronavirus lockdowns caused business activity to come to near standstill, leaving more than 20 million people jobless. But it remains an open question whether the central bank’s actions will be sufficient if it takes a long time for the economy to fully reopen, leaving businesses short on income for an extended period and increasing the risk that many will close.
Mr. Powell has begun warning that lawmakers and the White House may need to do more to support households and businesses if the virus persists.Mr. Powell has begun warning that lawmakers and the White House may need to do more to support households and businesses if the virus persists.
In his “60 Minutes” appearance, broadcast and streamed into millions of American homes, Mr. Powell reiterated that shepherding the economy through the darkest days of the coronavirus lockdown may require more policy action and suggested the recovery would not be seamless. Asked whether the economy could heal without an effective vaccine, Mr. Powell suggested that activity could restart before a treatment became available without making a complete rebound.In his “60 Minutes” appearance, broadcast and streamed into millions of American homes, Mr. Powell reiterated that shepherding the economy through the darkest days of the coronavirus lockdown may require more policy action and suggested the recovery would not be seamless. Asked whether the economy could heal without an effective vaccine, Mr. Powell suggested that activity could restart before a treatment became available without making a complete rebound.
“Assuming that there’s not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you’ll see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year,” he said. “For the economy to fully recover, people will have to be fully confident, and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine.”“Assuming that there’s not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you’ll see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year,” he said. “For the economy to fully recover, people will have to be fully confident, and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine.”
Mr. Powell pointed specifically to parts of the economy where people are in close contact — such as live events — as areas that might struggle to pick up before better protection is available.Mr. Powell pointed specifically to parts of the economy where people are in close contact — such as live events — as areas that might struggle to pick up before better protection is available.
“Those parts of the economy will be challenged until people feel really safe again,” he said. “Lots of the rest of the economy, though, can move ahead. But we can’t fully recover because those other parts of the economy matter.”“Those parts of the economy will be challenged until people feel really safe again,” he said. “Lots of the rest of the economy, though, can move ahead. But we can’t fully recover because those other parts of the economy matter.”
The Fed chair suggested that the worst economic readings were yet to come, even as states begin to gradually reopen. He said that he expected “a couple more months” of job losses and acknowledged that the unemployment rate, which hit 14.7 percent in April, could peak at 20 percent or even 25 percent. He said that as the economy contracts in the second quarter, it could “easily” fall by 20 percent or 30 percent on an annual basis.The Fed chair suggested that the worst economic readings were yet to come, even as states begin to gradually reopen. He said that he expected “a couple more months” of job losses and acknowledged that the unemployment rate, which hit 14.7 percent in April, could peak at 20 percent or even 25 percent. He said that as the economy contracts in the second quarter, it could “easily” fall by 20 percent or 30 percent on an annual basis.
The interview, which CBS said was taped on May 13, followed a blunt speech that the Fed chair delivered that same day in which he warned that the economy may need more fiscal help to prevent permanent job losses and waves of bankruptcies.The interview, which CBS said was taped on May 13, followed a blunt speech that the Fed chair delivered that same day in which he warned that the economy may need more fiscal help to prevent permanent job losses and waves of bankruptcies.
“I was really calling out a risk that I think is an important one for people to be cognizant of, and that is the risk of longer-run damage to the economy,” Mr. Powell said of that May 13 speech, acknowledging that “part” of his point was to send Capitol Hill a signal that the economy would need more assistance.“I was really calling out a risk that I think is an important one for people to be cognizant of, and that is the risk of longer-run damage to the economy,” Mr. Powell said of that May 13 speech, acknowledging that “part” of his point was to send Capitol Hill a signal that the economy would need more assistance.
Mr. Powell suggested that appropriate government policy could “buy time” for workers and companies, and that government efforts may need to span “maybe three or six more months.”Mr. Powell suggested that appropriate government policy could “buy time” for workers and companies, and that government efforts may need to span “maybe three or six more months.”
“It may well be that the Fed has to do more,” he said. “It may be that Congress has to do more. And the reason we’ve got to do more is to avoid longer-run damage to the economy.”“It may well be that the Fed has to do more,” he said. “It may be that Congress has to do more. And the reason we’ve got to do more is to avoid longer-run damage to the economy.”
While he was careful to avoid giving lawmakers specific advice, Mr. Powell said policymakers should focus on keeping people in their homes, ensuring they can pay their bills and helping companies avoid insolvencies brought about by the lockdown. Asked whether state and local governments needed more congressional assistance, he pointed out that many provided crucial services and were required to balance their budgets, so such a policy “deserves a careful look.”While he was careful to avoid giving lawmakers specific advice, Mr. Powell said policymakers should focus on keeping people in their homes, ensuring they can pay their bills and helping companies avoid insolvencies brought about by the lockdown. Asked whether state and local governments needed more congressional assistance, he pointed out that many provided crucial services and were required to balance their budgets, so such a policy “deserves a careful look.”
The House on Friday narrowly passed a $3 trillion pandemic relief package that would send aid to state and local governments and another round of direct $1,200 payments to taxpayers. The proposal, which includes Democratic priorities including the temporary suspension of a limit on the deduction of state and local taxes from federal income taxes, has no chance of becoming law amid Republican opposition.The House on Friday narrowly passed a $3 trillion pandemic relief package that would send aid to state and local governments and another round of direct $1,200 payments to taxpayers. The proposal, which includes Democratic priorities including the temporary suspension of a limit on the deduction of state and local taxes from federal income taxes, has no chance of becoming law amid Republican opposition.
Republicans and the White House have alternately sounded open to additional rounds of support and hesitant to spend more money given the trillions already being pumped into the economy.Republicans and the White House have alternately sounded open to additional rounds of support and hesitant to spend more money given the trillions already being pumped into the economy.
While fiscal policy can provide more direct assistance to households and businesses, Mr. Powell said the central bank was “not out of ammunition by a long shot.”While fiscal policy can provide more direct assistance to households and businesses, Mr. Powell said the central bank was “not out of ammunition by a long shot.”
Updated May 28, 2020
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
More than 40 million people — the equivalent of 1 in 4 U.S. workers — have filed for unemployment benefits since the pandemic took hold. One in five who were working in February reported losing a job or being furloughed in March or the beginning of April, data from a Federal Reserve survey released on May 14 showed, and that pain was highly concentrated among low earners. Fully 39 percent of former workers living in a household earning $40,000 or less lost work, compared with 13 percent in those making more than $100,000, a Fed official said.
There is an uptick in people reporting symptoms of chilblains, which are painful red or purple lesions that typically appear in the winter on fingers or toes. The lesions are emerging as yet another symptom of infection with the new coronavirus. Chilblains are caused by inflammation in small blood vessels in reaction to cold or damp conditions, but they are usually common in the coldest winter months. Federal health officials do not include toe lesions in the list of coronavirus symptoms, but some dermatologists are pushing for a change, saying so-called Covid toe should be sufficient grounds for testing.
Yes, but make sure you keep six feet of distance between you and people who don’t live in your home. Even if you just hang out in a park, rather than go for a jog or a walk, getting some fresh air, and hopefully sunshine, is a good idea.
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
Charity Navigator, which evaluates charities using a numbers-based system, has a running list of nonprofits working in communities affected by the outbreak. You can give blood through the American Red Cross, and World Central Kitchen has stepped in to distribute meals in major cities.
Fed officials have slashed interest rates to zero, purchased bonds at a record pace to restore order to roiled government bond markets and unveiled a series of emergency lending programs in partnership with the Treasury Department.Fed officials have slashed interest rates to zero, purchased bonds at a record pace to restore order to roiled government bond markets and unveiled a series of emergency lending programs in partnership with the Treasury Department.
Mr. Powell said there was “really no limit” to what they could do with their emergency lending facilities, which allow them to extend credit to help keep markets functioning normally so that businesses and households can borrow money even during tumultuous periods.Mr. Powell said there was “really no limit” to what they could do with their emergency lending facilities, which allow them to extend credit to help keep markets functioning normally so that businesses and households can borrow money even during tumultuous periods.
The Fed could enlarge its already announced programs, start new ones or change its asset purchase strategy, Mr. Powell said. Analysts have speculated that the central bank will eventually transition its current bond purchase program, intended to soothe trading conditions, into one that is meant to bolster the economy.The Fed could enlarge its already announced programs, start new ones or change its asset purchase strategy, Mr. Powell said. Analysts have speculated that the central bank will eventually transition its current bond purchase program, intended to soothe trading conditions, into one that is meant to bolster the economy.
“The one thing I can absolutely guarantee is that the Federal Reserve will be doing everything we can to support the people we serve,” Mr. Powell said. “And that means providing some relief and stability now. It means supporting the recovery when it comes.”“The one thing I can absolutely guarantee is that the Federal Reserve will be doing everything we can to support the people we serve,” Mr. Powell said. “And that means providing some relief and stability now. It means supporting the recovery when it comes.”
Like his predecessor, Ben Bernanke, who appeared on “60 Minutes” in the depths of the 2007-09 recession to send a reassuring message to Americans, Mr. Powell sounded hopeful that the United States would ultimately return to its former prosperity.Like his predecessor, Ben Bernanke, who appeared on “60 Minutes” in the depths of the 2007-09 recession to send a reassuring message to Americans, Mr. Powell sounded hopeful that the United States would ultimately return to its former prosperity.
He said that the current downturn would not be a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s, just as Mr. Bernanke did when asked the same question in 2009.He said that the current downturn would not be a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s, just as Mr. Bernanke did when asked the same question in 2009.
“We’ll get through this,” Mr. Powell said. “The main thing is, once we start on the road to recovery, is to stay on that road and just do everything we can to stay on it for a long period of time.”“We’ll get through this,” Mr. Powell said. “The main thing is, once we start on the road to recovery, is to stay on that road and just do everything we can to stay on it for a long period of time.”