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| Fed Chair Says Economic Recovery May ‘Stretch’ Through End of 2021 | Fed Chair Says Economic Recovery May ‘Stretch’ Through End of 2021 |
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| Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said that the United States would have a slow recovery from what he called the “biggest shock that the economy’s had in living memory,” suggesting that a full rebound from virus-induced lockdowns could take until the end of 2021. | Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said that the United States would have a slow recovery from what he called the “biggest shock that the economy’s had in living memory,” suggesting that a full rebound from virus-induced lockdowns could take until the end of 2021. |
| In an interview on “60 Minutes,” the CBS program, Mr. Powell reiterated that both Congress and the central bank may need to do more to help workers and businesses make it through the sudden and sharp slump caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus. | In an interview on “60 Minutes,” the CBS program, Mr. Powell reiterated that both Congress and the central bank may need to do more to help workers and businesses make it through the sudden and sharp slump caused by efforts to contain the coronavirus. |
| “This economy will recover; it may take a while,” Mr. Powell said. “It may take a period of time, it could stretch through the end of next year, we really don't know.” | “This economy will recover; it may take a while,” Mr. Powell said. “It may take a period of time, it could stretch through the end of next year, we really don't know.” |
| The Fed has rushed to insulate the economy as coronavirus lockdowns caused business activity to come to near standstill, leaving more than 20 million people jobless. But it remains an open question whether the central bank’s actions will be sufficient if it takes a long time for the economy to fully reopen, leaving businesses short on income for an extended period and increasing the risk that many will close. | The Fed has rushed to insulate the economy as coronavirus lockdowns caused business activity to come to near standstill, leaving more than 20 million people jobless. But it remains an open question whether the central bank’s actions will be sufficient if it takes a long time for the economy to fully reopen, leaving businesses short on income for an extended period and increasing the risk that many will close. |
| Mr. Powell has begun warning that lawmakers and the White House may need to do more to support households and businesses if the virus persists. | Mr. Powell has begun warning that lawmakers and the White House may need to do more to support households and businesses if the virus persists. |
| In his “60 Minutes” appearance, broadcast and streamed into millions of American homes, Mr. Powell reiterated that shepherding the economy through the darkest days of the coronavirus lockdown may require more policy action and suggested the recovery would not be seamless. Asked whether the economy could heal without an effective vaccine, Mr. Powell suggested that activity could restart before a treatment became available without making a complete rebound. | In his “60 Minutes” appearance, broadcast and streamed into millions of American homes, Mr. Powell reiterated that shepherding the economy through the darkest days of the coronavirus lockdown may require more policy action and suggested the recovery would not be seamless. Asked whether the economy could heal without an effective vaccine, Mr. Powell suggested that activity could restart before a treatment became available without making a complete rebound. |
| “Assuming that there’s not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you’ll see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year,” he said. “For the economy to fully recover, people will have to be fully confident, and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine.” | “Assuming that there’s not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you’ll see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year,” he said. “For the economy to fully recover, people will have to be fully confident, and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine.” |
| Mr. Powell pointed specifically to parts of the economy where people are in close contact — such as live events — as areas that might struggle to pick up before better protection is available. | Mr. Powell pointed specifically to parts of the economy where people are in close contact — such as live events — as areas that might struggle to pick up before better protection is available. |
| “Those parts of the economy will be challenged until people feel really safe again,” he said. “Lots of the rest of the economy, though, can move ahead. But we can’t fully recover because those other parts of the economy matter.” | “Those parts of the economy will be challenged until people feel really safe again,” he said. “Lots of the rest of the economy, though, can move ahead. But we can’t fully recover because those other parts of the economy matter.” |
| The Fed chair suggested that the worst economic readings were yet to come, even as states begin to gradually reopen. He said that he expected “a couple more months” of job losses and acknowledged that the unemployment rate, which hit 14.7 percent in April, could peak at 20 percent or even 25 percent. He said that as the economy contracts in the second quarter, it could “easily” fall by 20 percent or 30 percent on an annual basis. | The Fed chair suggested that the worst economic readings were yet to come, even as states begin to gradually reopen. He said that he expected “a couple more months” of job losses and acknowledged that the unemployment rate, which hit 14.7 percent in April, could peak at 20 percent or even 25 percent. He said that as the economy contracts in the second quarter, it could “easily” fall by 20 percent or 30 percent on an annual basis. |
| The interview, which CBS said was taped on May 13, followed a blunt speech that the Fed chair delivered that same day in which he warned that the economy may need more fiscal help to prevent permanent job losses and waves of bankruptcies. | The interview, which CBS said was taped on May 13, followed a blunt speech that the Fed chair delivered that same day in which he warned that the economy may need more fiscal help to prevent permanent job losses and waves of bankruptcies. |
| “I was really calling out a risk that I think is an important one for people to be cognizant of, and that is the risk of longer-run damage to the economy,” Mr. Powell said of that May 13 speech, acknowledging that “part” of his point was to send Capitol Hill a signal that the economy would need more assistance. | “I was really calling out a risk that I think is an important one for people to be cognizant of, and that is the risk of longer-run damage to the economy,” Mr. Powell said of that May 13 speech, acknowledging that “part” of his point was to send Capitol Hill a signal that the economy would need more assistance. |
| Mr. Powell suggested that appropriate government policy could “buy time” for workers and companies, and that government efforts may need to span “maybe three or six more months.” | Mr. Powell suggested that appropriate government policy could “buy time” for workers and companies, and that government efforts may need to span “maybe three or six more months.” |
| “It may well be that the Fed has to do more,” he said. “It may be that Congress has to do more. And the reason we’ve got to do more is to avoid longer-run damage to the economy.” | “It may well be that the Fed has to do more,” he said. “It may be that Congress has to do more. And the reason we’ve got to do more is to avoid longer-run damage to the economy.” |
| While he was careful to avoid giving lawmakers specific advice, Mr. Powell said policymakers should focus on keeping people in their homes, ensuring they can pay their bills and helping companies avoid insolvencies brought about by the lockdown. Asked whether state and local governments needed more congressional assistance, he pointed out that many provided crucial services and were required to balance their budgets, so such a policy “deserves a careful look.” | While he was careful to avoid giving lawmakers specific advice, Mr. Powell said policymakers should focus on keeping people in their homes, ensuring they can pay their bills and helping companies avoid insolvencies brought about by the lockdown. Asked whether state and local governments needed more congressional assistance, he pointed out that many provided crucial services and were required to balance their budgets, so such a policy “deserves a careful look.” |
| The House on Friday narrowly passed a $3 trillion pandemic relief package that would send aid to state and local governments and another round of direct $1,200 payments to taxpayers. The proposal, which includes Democratic priorities including the temporary suspension of a limit on the deduction of state and local taxes from federal income taxes, has no chance of becoming law amid Republican opposition. | The House on Friday narrowly passed a $3 trillion pandemic relief package that would send aid to state and local governments and another round of direct $1,200 payments to taxpayers. The proposal, which includes Democratic priorities including the temporary suspension of a limit on the deduction of state and local taxes from federal income taxes, has no chance of becoming law amid Republican opposition. |
| Republicans and the White House have alternately sounded open to additional rounds of support and hesitant to spend more money given the trillions already being pumped into the economy. | Republicans and the White House have alternately sounded open to additional rounds of support and hesitant to spend more money given the trillions already being pumped into the economy. |
| While fiscal policy can provide more direct assistance to households and businesses, Mr. Powell said the central bank was “not out of ammunition by a long shot.” | While fiscal policy can provide more direct assistance to households and businesses, Mr. Powell said the central bank was “not out of ammunition by a long shot.” |
| Updated June 22, 2020 | |
| A commentary published this month on the website of the British Journal of Sports Medicine points out that covering your face during exercise “comes with issues of potential breathing restriction and discomfort” and requires “balancing benefits versus possible adverse events.” Masks do alter exercise, says Cedric X. Bryant, the president and chief science officer of the American Council on Exercise, a nonprofit organization that funds exercise research and certifies fitness professionals. “In my personal experience,” he says, “heart rates are higher at the same relative intensity when you wear a mask.” Some people also could experience lightheadedness during familiar workouts while masked, says Len Kravitz, a professor of exercise science at the University of New Mexico. | |
| The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. | The steroid, dexamethasone, is the first treatment shown to reduce mortality in severely ill patients, according to scientists in Britain. The drug appears to reduce inflammation caused by the immune system, protecting the tissues. In the study, dexamethasone reduced deaths of patients on ventilators by one-third, and deaths of patients on oxygen by one-fifth. |
| The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. | The coronavirus emergency relief package gives many American workers paid leave if they need to take time off because of the virus. It gives qualified workers two weeks of paid sick leave if they are ill, quarantined or seeking diagnosis or preventive care for coronavirus, or if they are caring for sick family members. It gives 12 weeks of paid leave to people caring for children whose schools are closed or whose child care provider is unavailable because of the coronavirus. It is the first time the United States has had widespread federally mandated paid leave, and includes people who don’t typically get such benefits, like part-time and gig economy workers. But the measure excludes at least half of private-sector workers, including those at the country’s largest employers, and gives small employers significant leeway to deny leave. |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| Fed officials have slashed interest rates to zero, purchased bonds at a record pace to restore order to roiled government bond markets and unveiled a series of emergency lending programs in partnership with the Treasury Department. | Fed officials have slashed interest rates to zero, purchased bonds at a record pace to restore order to roiled government bond markets and unveiled a series of emergency lending programs in partnership with the Treasury Department. |
| Mr. Powell said there was “really no limit” to what they could do with their emergency lending facilities, which allow them to extend credit to help keep markets functioning normally so that businesses and households can borrow money even during tumultuous periods. | Mr. Powell said there was “really no limit” to what they could do with their emergency lending facilities, which allow them to extend credit to help keep markets functioning normally so that businesses and households can borrow money even during tumultuous periods. |
| The Fed could enlarge its already announced programs, start new ones or change its asset purchase strategy, Mr. Powell said. Analysts have speculated that the central bank will eventually transition its current bond purchase program, intended to soothe trading conditions, into one that is meant to bolster the economy. | The Fed could enlarge its already announced programs, start new ones or change its asset purchase strategy, Mr. Powell said. Analysts have speculated that the central bank will eventually transition its current bond purchase program, intended to soothe trading conditions, into one that is meant to bolster the economy. |
| “The one thing I can absolutely guarantee is that the Federal Reserve will be doing everything we can to support the people we serve,” Mr. Powell said. “And that means providing some relief and stability now. It means supporting the recovery when it comes.” | “The one thing I can absolutely guarantee is that the Federal Reserve will be doing everything we can to support the people we serve,” Mr. Powell said. “And that means providing some relief and stability now. It means supporting the recovery when it comes.” |
| Like his predecessor, Ben Bernanke, who appeared on “60 Minutes” in the depths of the 2007-09 recession to send a reassuring message to Americans, Mr. Powell sounded hopeful that the United States would ultimately return to its former prosperity. | Like his predecessor, Ben Bernanke, who appeared on “60 Minutes” in the depths of the 2007-09 recession to send a reassuring message to Americans, Mr. Powell sounded hopeful that the United States would ultimately return to its former prosperity. |
| He said that the current downturn would not be a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s, just as Mr. Bernanke did when asked the same question in 2009. | He said that the current downturn would not be a repeat of the Great Depression of the 1930s, just as Mr. Bernanke did when asked the same question in 2009. |
| “We’ll get through this,” Mr. Powell said. “The main thing is, once we start on the road to recovery, is to stay on that road and just do everything we can to stay on it for a long period of time.” | “We’ll get through this,” Mr. Powell said. “The main thing is, once we start on the road to recovery, is to stay on that road and just do everything we can to stay on it for a long period of time.” |