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If Airlines Are Suffering, Why Are Some Planes So Full? If Airlines Are Suffering, Why Are Some Planes So Full?
(8 days later)
Just a few weeks ago, people were posting photos and stories on social media of virtually empty flights, relishing in personalized service and not having to worry about social distancing. Just last month, people were posting photos and stories on social media of virtually empty flights, relishing in receiving personalized service and not having to worry about social distancing.
Now, some travelers are complaining about the opposite, flying on planes that are surprisingly full. They are frustrated that airlines aren’t doing more to space people out or limit the number of passengers. Now, as summer travel season starts, some travelers are complaining about the opposite: flying on planes that are surprisingly full. They are frustrated that airlines aren’t doing more to space people out or limit the number of passengers on planes.
Even though most flights are generally empty, some continue to fly at or near capacity. Take the United Airlines flight from Newark to San Francisco that Ethan Weiss, a doctor from California, wrote about on Twitter on Saturday in a series of messages that were widely shared. Even though most flights are far from full, some continue to fly at or near capacity. Take the United Airlines flight from Newark to San Francisco that Ethan Weiss, a doctor from California, wrote about on Twitter in a series of messages that were widely shared this month.
“This is the last time I’ll be flying again for a very long time,” he wrote, after posting a photograph of a full plane cabin. “This is the last time I’ll be flying again for a very long time,” he wrote, after posting a photograph of a nearly full plane cabin.
On that flight, only 25 of the 166 available seats were empty, according to United. But the carrier said in a statement that the vast majority of its flights — 85 percent — were less than half full. Last weekend, Representative Jared Huffman, a Democrat who represents a stretch of California’s coast north of San Francisco, wrote about a similar experience on his way back to Washington.
Starting next week through June, United said, it will “do our best” to notify customers about a day in advance if they are booked on a flight that is more than 70 percent full. Those with concerns can book a different flight or receive a travel credit. What Mr. Huffman and Dr. Weiss experienced was unusual, but not unique. Here’s why.
Dr. Weiss’s experience was unusual, but it wasn’t unique. Here’s why. They were, and they are. Usually.
They were and they are. Usually. The vast majority of flights in the United States — about three out of four — are less than half full, according to Airlines for America, an industry organization. And only about one in 12 flights is more than 70 percent full, though that figure may grow as more travelers start to fly and airlines better align their schedules with demand.
In the past seven days, the largest airlines in the United States averaged just 23 passengers on each domestic flight, according to Airlines for America, an industry organization. In the first two months of the year, airlines were averaging 85 to 100 passengers. Early in the pandemic, there was a glut of empty flights as airlines struggled to keep up with people canceling or skipping flights. Schedules are largely set weeks in advance, and airlines didn’t know how many passengers would board their planes.
Early in the pandemic, there was a glut of empty flights as airlines were surprised by how quickly people decided to cancel trips and forgo new bookings. Flight schedules are set weeks in advance, and airlines didn’t know how many passengers would board planes. Over time, however, airlines have gotten a better handle on demand and slashed their schedules. United, for example, cut flights in May by about 90 percent. Delta Air Lines has cut 85 percent of its flights over the three months ending in June.
Over time, however, airlines have slashed their schedules. United, for example, cut flights in May by about 90 percent. Delta Air Lines has cut 85 percent of its flights over the three months ending in June.
“That means that people who are on four individual flights are now on one — the single flight that remains,” said Robert Mann, an industry analyst and consultant.“That means that people who are on four individual flights are now on one — the single flight that remains,” said Robert Mann, an industry analyst and consultant.
That depends on the airline — and the fine print.That depends on the airline — and the fine print.
“We’re automatically blocking middle seats to give you enough space on board,” United told customers in an email two weeks ago, a message that Dr. Weiss referred to on his Twitter account. As Dr. Weiss pointed out, United told customers in an email that it was “automatically blocking middle seats to give you enough space on board,” but the airline has since clarified its policy. Customers may not be able to select a middle seat at purchase, but United can still assign them one. The company said it could not guarantee empty seats but would let passengers rebook if their flights were more than 70 percent full.
But United has since clarified its policy. A customer may not be able to select a middle seat, but United could still assign that person one. The company said it could not guarantee that customers would find themselves next to an empty seat. By comparison, Delta has promised to cap seating at 50 percent of its capacity in first class and 60 percent elsewhere. American Airlines has said it will block half of all middle seats on its planes. Southwest Airlines, which does not assign seats, has resisted making such pronouncements, but has said it will temporarily reduce how many passengers it books on every flight.
By comparison, Delta has recently promised to cap seating at 50 percent of its capacity in first class and 60 percent for several other seating categories. That should help ensure plenty of empty seats on each flight. It’s easy to limit capacity when demand is very low, but airlines can’t afford to do so forever.
American Airlines has said it would block half of all middle seats on its planes. Southwest Airlines, which does not assign seats, has resisted making such pronouncements about middle seats, but has said it will temporarily reduce how many passengers it books on every flight. The industry tends to operate on slim profit margins. In North America, an airline breaks even only on flights that are at least 75 percent full, on average, according to the International Air Transport Association.
It’s easy to block middle seats or limit capacity when demand for air travel is very low, but airlines can’t afford to do so forever, at least not without raising prices. To cover the cost of social-distancing measures, those North American airlines would have to raise average fares by 43 percent, to $289 from $202 last year, according to the association.
The industry tends to operate on slim profit margins. In North America, an airline breaks even when flights are at least 75 percent full, according to the International Air Transport Association. “Eliminating the middle seat will raise costs,” Alexandre de Juniac, the association's chief executive, said this month. “If that can be offset with higher fares, the era of affordable travel will come to an end.”
If North American airlines were to impose social-distancing measures, airfares would have to increase an estimated 43 percent, from an average of $202 last year to $289, according to the association. Still, airlines are facing growing pressure to do something about packed flights as they start to see the beginnings of a tepid and choppy recovery.
“Eliminating the middle seat will raise costs,” Alexandre de Juniac, the association's chief executive, said last week. “If that can be offset with higher fares, the era of affordable travel will come to an end.” This month, Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington and Representative Peter DeFazio of Oregon, the top Democrats on the congressional transportation committees, separately called on the Trump administration and airlines to limit capacity on flights.
Most people are staying home, but tens of thousands still get on planes every day. “As air travelers gradually return, they must feel confident that they will be safe from the coronavirus,” Ms. Cantwell wrote in a letter on Monday urging the transportation secretary, Elaine Chao, to formalize guidelines for airlines.
At airport security checkpoints on Sunday, the Transportation Security Administration screened about 8 percent of the 2.4 million people it processed on the same day last year — or about 200,000 travelers and airport and airline employees. While airlines are not yet uniformly keeping passengers six feet apart, they have been trying to put travelers at ease by requiring masks, frequently disinfecting planes and boarding planes back to front to limit interactions among passengers.
Many of those still flying are visiting loved ones who are ill. Some are traveling to be closer to family after months in isolation. Another group includes medical professionals like Dr. Weiss, who said he was part of a group of 25 nurses and doctors who had gone to New York City to help hospitals struggling with an influx of coronavirus cases. And others are flying for work. In an effort to show customers that it’s taking the pandemic seriously, United said this week that it was teaming up with Clorox and the Cleveland Clinic: Clorox will consult on the airline’s disinfection practices and provide amenities to travelers at some locations, while the Cleveland Clinic will offer advice and keep the airline updated on the latest best practices.
That was the case for David Chou, a health care executive from Kansas City, Mo., who took his first flight in months last week to Houston, where he had just accepted a new job. Mr. Chou was fortunate that only about a dozen passengers were on each of his United flights to and from Houston. Airlines are also adding sneeze guards and kiosks that can be operated without being touched. They are also scrapping meal service.
But he was disappointed to find that some of the people weren’t wearing masks, even though United now requires them. It wasn’t a major problem, but it did make him rethink whether he would fly again. On any given day, the Transportation Security Administration is screening between only 8 percent and 10 percent of the approximately 2.5 million people it processed at airport checkpoints a year ago. But while most Americans are staying home, tens of thousands still get on planes every day — and that number appears to be rising.
Many travelers are visiting loved ones who are old or ill, or are traveling to be closer to family after months in isolation. There are also medical professionals like Dr. Weiss, who was part of a group of nurses and doctors who had gone to New York City to help hospitals struggling with an influx of virus cases. Others are flying for work.
That was the case for David Chou, a health care executive from Kansas City, Mo., who recently took his first flight in months, to Houston, where he had just accepted a new job. Mr. Chou was fortunate that only about a dozen passengers were on the flight. But he was disappointed to find that some weren’t wearing masks. It wasn’t a major problem, but it did make him rethink whether he would fly again.
“If volume picks up and people are not practicing social distancing or even wearing masks, I would be hesitant on taking additional flights,” he said.“If volume picks up and people are not practicing social distancing or even wearing masks, I would be hesitant on taking additional flights,” he said.
With airlines seeing early signs of a recovery, people like him may soon have to reckon with whether it’s worth getting on a plane at all.