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A Coronavirus Mystery Explained: Moscow Has 1,700 Extra Deaths A Coronavirus Mystery Explained: Moscow Has 1,700 Extra Deaths
(about 16 hours later)
MOSCOW — Ever since the coronavirus took hold globally, researchers have been puzzled by Russia’s mortality rate of only about 13 deaths per million, far below the world average of 36 in a country with an underfunded health system.MOSCOW — Ever since the coronavirus took hold globally, researchers have been puzzled by Russia’s mortality rate of only about 13 deaths per million, far below the world average of 36 in a country with an underfunded health system.
With the arrival of data for April, however, the mystery appears to be clearing up.With the arrival of data for April, however, the mystery appears to be clearing up.
Data released by Moscow’s city government on Friday shows that the number of overall registered deaths in the Russian capital in April exceeded the five-year average for the same period by more than 1,700. That total is far higher than the official Covid-19 death count of 642 — an indication of significant underreporting by the authorities.Data released by Moscow’s city government on Friday shows that the number of overall registered deaths in the Russian capital in April exceeded the five-year average for the same period by more than 1,700. That total is far higher than the official Covid-19 death count of 642 — an indication of significant underreporting by the authorities.
A similar picture has been observed in many other countries. In neighboring Belarus, for example — where the authoritarian leader Aleksandr G. Lukashenko has rejected calls for a lockdown as “frenzy and psychosis” — the reported death rate is about 10 per million. In Mexico, officials have recorded more than three times as many deaths in the capital as the government has acknowledged.A similar picture has been observed in many other countries. In neighboring Belarus, for example — where the authoritarian leader Aleksandr G. Lukashenko has rejected calls for a lockdown as “frenzy and psychosis” — the reported death rate is about 10 per million. In Mexico, officials have recorded more than three times as many deaths in the capital as the government has acknowledged.
“Mortality figures in Moscow seem to be much higher than average for Aprils over the last decade,” said Tatiana N. Mikhailova, a senior researcher at the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in Moscow. “One thing is clear: The number of Covid-19 victims is possibly almost three times higher than the official toll,” she said in an interview, adding that additional calculations needed to be made to come up with a precise number.“Mortality figures in Moscow seem to be much higher than average for Aprils over the last decade,” said Tatiana N. Mikhailova, a senior researcher at the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in Moscow. “One thing is clear: The number of Covid-19 victims is possibly almost three times higher than the official toll,” she said in an interview, adding that additional calculations needed to be made to come up with a precise number.
The new figures contrast sharply with the line that has been peddled by the Kremlin.The new figures contrast sharply with the line that has been peddled by the Kremlin.
Speaking to President Vladimir V. Putin at the end of April, Anna Popova, the head of Russia’s consumer rights and human well-being watchdog, boasted that the country’s mortality rate was “among the lowest in the world.” Russian state-run television channels have been relentlessly advertising the country’s effort to fight the virus as superior to Western nations’.Speaking to President Vladimir V. Putin at the end of April, Anna Popova, the head of Russia’s consumer rights and human well-being watchdog, boasted that the country’s mortality rate was “among the lowest in the world.” Russian state-run television channels have been relentlessly advertising the country’s effort to fight the virus as superior to Western nations’.
On Monday, claiming success at slowing the spread of the coronavirus despite a sharp rise in infections, Mr. Putin ordered the end of a nationwide “non-working period” in force since late March.On Monday, claiming success at slowing the spread of the coronavirus despite a sharp rise in infections, Mr. Putin ordered the end of a nationwide “non-working period” in force since late March.
Mr. Putin, speaking on state television shortly after the health authorities reported the biggest one-day rise in infections, acknowledged that the pandemic had not yet been defeated but said it was now up to regional governors to decide whether to lift or strengthen restrictions in their territories.Mr. Putin, speaking on state television shortly after the health authorities reported the biggest one-day rise in infections, acknowledged that the pandemic had not yet been defeated but said it was now up to regional governors to decide whether to lift or strengthen restrictions in their territories.
While the official number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus in Russia stood at 1,124 for Moscow and 2,009 nationwide as of Monday, arriving at a more accurate estimate will be highly complicated.While the official number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus in Russia stood at 1,124 for Moscow and 2,009 nationwide as of Monday, arriving at a more accurate estimate will be highly complicated.
Thousands of people have left Moscow since the city government declared a lockdown in March, an exodus that would lower the number of deaths in the city. And many people could have died of other causes as at least 37 Moscow hospitals have been converted to treat only coronavirus patients.Thousands of people have left Moscow since the city government declared a lockdown in March, an exodus that would lower the number of deaths in the city. And many people could have died of other causes as at least 37 Moscow hospitals have been converted to treat only coronavirus patients.
Over all, about 70 percent of coronavirus-related deaths have not been reported in Moscow and about 80 percent in the country’s regions, said Aleksei I. Raksha, an independent demographer in Moscow. He was among the first to spot the April data, buried in an obscure government statistics website, as he has been studying mortality rates in the Russian capital and the country’s regions and comparing them with official death tolls.Over all, about 70 percent of coronavirus-related deaths have not been reported in Moscow and about 80 percent in the country’s regions, said Aleksei I. Raksha, an independent demographer in Moscow. He was among the first to spot the April data, buried in an obscure government statistics website, as he has been studying mortality rates in the Russian capital and the country’s regions and comparing them with official death tolls.
The lower numbers, according to Mr. Raksha, can be attributed to the way that causes of death are registered in Russia.The lower numbers, according to Mr. Raksha, can be attributed to the way that causes of death are registered in Russia.
“For most deaths, the registered cause will be the disease of the organ that directly caused it,” he said in an interview. “This is the way the system has worked for a long time,” he said, adding that he believes it is highly likely that the authorities at some level are manipulating this system to yield the result they want.“For most deaths, the registered cause will be the disease of the organ that directly caused it,” he said in an interview. “This is the way the system has worked for a long time,” he said, adding that he believes it is highly likely that the authorities at some level are manipulating this system to yield the result they want.
Speaking to the Echo of Moscow radio station last week, Georgi A. Frank, a senior Russian coroner, acknowledged that health officials have wide leeway in registering causes of death.Speaking to the Echo of Moscow radio station last week, Georgi A. Frank, a senior Russian coroner, acknowledged that health officials have wide leeway in registering causes of death.
“In a number of cases, Covid-19 might not be the main cause of death — sometimes it can be just a background to the main disease,” Mr. Frank said. “Of course, there can be some manipulations, but decent doctors never allow it.”“In a number of cases, Covid-19 might not be the main cause of death — sometimes it can be just a background to the main disease,” Mr. Frank said. “Of course, there can be some manipulations, but decent doctors never allow it.”
Russia reported its first coronavirus death on March 19, when a 79-year-old woman died in Moscow. Shortly afterward, the death was reclassified as having resulted from a blood clot and the case was removed from the official Covid-19 death toll.Russia reported its first coronavirus death on March 19, when a 79-year-old woman died in Moscow. Shortly afterward, the death was reclassified as having resulted from a blood clot and the case was removed from the official Covid-19 death toll.
Updated June 5, 2020Updated June 5, 2020
So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
More than 11,800 people died in Moscow this April, far more than during any other April since 1995, when Russia was engulfed in a post-Soviet economic crisis worse than the Great Depression. The number was posted by the Moscow government, which collects reports from the city’s civil registration offices that record vital events, such as births, marriages and deaths.More than 11,800 people died in Moscow this April, far more than during any other April since 1995, when Russia was engulfed in a post-Soviet economic crisis worse than the Great Depression. The number was posted by the Moscow government, which collects reports from the city’s civil registration offices that record vital events, such as births, marriages and deaths.
The death toll will be updated by the Russian State Statistics Service by the end of this month, but is unlikely to change much. On average, the Russian capital has about 10,000 deaths each April.The death toll will be updated by the Russian State Statistics Service by the end of this month, but is unlikely to change much. On average, the Russian capital has about 10,000 deaths each April.
Being by far the busiest point of entry into the county, Moscow has been the first area in Russia to be hit by the coronavirus. Still, it has lagged behind most other European capitals, registering only a few deaths before the middle of April.Being by far the busiest point of entry into the county, Moscow has been the first area in Russia to be hit by the coronavirus. Still, it has lagged behind most other European capitals, registering only a few deaths before the middle of April.
Russian regions, in turn, have lagged behind Moscow. As of Monday morning, Moscow accounted for 52 percent of all reported coronavirus cases in Russia, with more than 109,000 people infected.Russian regions, in turn, have lagged behind Moscow. As of Monday morning, Moscow accounted for 52 percent of all reported coronavirus cases in Russia, with more than 109,000 people infected.
An even clearer picture of the true coronavirus death toll is likely to be revealed in the mortality data for May, when the virus began to grip Russia in earnest, experts said. About 45 deaths and more than 5,000 new cases have been registered in Moscow daily over the past week.An even clearer picture of the true coronavirus death toll is likely to be revealed in the mortality data for May, when the virus began to grip Russia in earnest, experts said. About 45 deaths and more than 5,000 new cases have been registered in Moscow daily over the past week.