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| Will the Coronavirus Crisis Trump the Climate Crisis? | Will the Coronavirus Crisis Trump the Climate Crisis? |
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| BRUSSELS — With the global paralysis induced by the coronavirus, levels of pollution and carbon emission are dropping everywhere — leaving bluer skies, visible mountains, splendid wildflowers. Even Venice’s famously murky canals are running clear. | BRUSSELS — With the global paralysis induced by the coronavirus, levels of pollution and carbon emission are dropping everywhere — leaving bluer skies, visible mountains, splendid wildflowers. Even Venice’s famously murky canals are running clear. |
| After decades of industry and government slow-walking the climate issue, for some it is proof that effective action can be achieved. | After decades of industry and government slow-walking the climate issue, for some it is proof that effective action can be achieved. |
| But nature’s revival has come at enormous cost, with Europe’s economy projected to decline 7.4 percent this year. So for many, like the suddenly unemployed, concerns about climate — which seemed urgent just a few months ago — can seem less so now. | But nature’s revival has come at enormous cost, with Europe’s economy projected to decline 7.4 percent this year. So for many, like the suddenly unemployed, concerns about climate — which seemed urgent just a few months ago — can seem less so now. |
| Those competing camps are now locked in debate over how and what to rebuild — between those who want to get the economy moving again, no matter how, and those who argue that the crisis is a chance to accelerate the transition to a cleaner economy. | Those competing camps are now locked in debate over how and what to rebuild — between those who want to get the economy moving again, no matter how, and those who argue that the crisis is a chance to accelerate the transition to a cleaner economy. |
| Jean Pisani-Ferry, an economist and former aide to President Emmanuel Macron of France, described this as the struggle that “will define the post-pandemic world.” | Jean Pisani-Ferry, an economist and former aide to President Emmanuel Macron of France, described this as the struggle that “will define the post-pandemic world.” |
| For green militants, the virus “only strengthens the urgent need for climate action,’’ he wrote recently. “But die-hard industrialists are equally convinced: There should be no higher priority than to repair a ravaged economy, postponing stricter environmental regulations if necessary. The battle has started.’’ | For green militants, the virus “only strengthens the urgent need for climate action,’’ he wrote recently. “But die-hard industrialists are equally convinced: There should be no higher priority than to repair a ravaged economy, postponing stricter environmental regulations if necessary. The battle has started.’’ |
| As European governments squabble bitterly over a virus-recovery fund and the next seven-year budget, the issue is front and center. | As European governments squabble bitterly over a virus-recovery fund and the next seven-year budget, the issue is front and center. |
| The European Union began the year promoting a plan for a rapid transformation of the economy toward a carbon-neutral future — “the Green Deal” — as its flagship theme and engine for renewed growth. | The European Union began the year promoting a plan for a rapid transformation of the economy toward a carbon-neutral future — “the Green Deal” — as its flagship theme and engine for renewed growth. |
| European leaders insist that some form of it will remain paramount, but the new coronavirus has complicated matters. | European leaders insist that some form of it will remain paramount, but the new coronavirus has complicated matters. |
| Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission — the European Union's important bureaucracy — said late last month that the bloc’s green goals should be “the motor for the recovery.” She has important support from Mr. Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. | Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission — the European Union's important bureaucracy — said late last month that the bloc’s green goals should be “the motor for the recovery.” She has important support from Mr. Macron and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. |
| The question is how far anyone is willing to go now, as political leaders across the continent come under pressure from citizens for economic relief, as well as from industries desperate to get their old factories running again. | The question is how far anyone is willing to go now, as political leaders across the continent come under pressure from citizens for economic relief, as well as from industries desperate to get their old factories running again. |
| The bloc is debating a law to enforce carbon neutrality by 2050, but many want to toughen targets for 2030 — by moving from a proposed 40 percent reduction from 1990 levels in the next decade, to as much as 55 percent. They argued that the pandemic is an opportunity to use new money to accelerate the transition away from carbon. | The bloc is debating a law to enforce carbon neutrality by 2050, but many want to toughen targets for 2030 — by moving from a proposed 40 percent reduction from 1990 levels in the next decade, to as much as 55 percent. They argued that the pandemic is an opportunity to use new money to accelerate the transition away from carbon. |
| European climate and environmental ministers from 17 nations signed a statement urging governments to “make the E.U.’s recovery a Green Deal,’’ and “to build the bridge between fighting Covid-19, biodiversity loss and climate change.’’ | European climate and environmental ministers from 17 nations signed a statement urging governments to “make the E.U.’s recovery a Green Deal,’’ and “to build the bridge between fighting Covid-19, biodiversity loss and climate change.’’ |
| But even the commission’s first vice president and the man in charge of the Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, is worried. | But even the commission’s first vice president and the man in charge of the Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, is worried. |
| “The climate crisis that was upon us before the corona crisis is still there and has lost nothing of its urgency,’’ he said. “But in the foreseeable future it will no longer rank first on people’s priority list. It will tumble down.’’ | “The climate crisis that was upon us before the corona crisis is still there and has lost nothing of its urgency,’’ he said. “But in the foreseeable future it will no longer rank first on people’s priority list. It will tumble down.’’ |
| The “big question,’’ Mr. Timmermans said in an interview, is “will politicians stay the course and keep their eyes on the long-term crisis or short-term electoral considerations?’’ | The “big question,’’ Mr. Timmermans said in an interview, is “will politicians stay the course and keep their eyes on the long-term crisis or short-term electoral considerations?’’ |
| If the recovery is slow, “then people are in the streets and politicians will start throwing money at businesses to keep them afloat, whether the businesses are solvent or not, green or not,’’ he said. “That’s why I push for a bigger societal involvement’’ from young people focused on the future. | If the recovery is slow, “then people are in the streets and politicians will start throwing money at businesses to keep them afloat, whether the businesses are solvent or not, green or not,’’ he said. “That’s why I push for a bigger societal involvement’’ from young people focused on the future. |
| But with global climate negotiations known as COP-26 already postponed, there is significant skepticism. | But with global climate negotiations known as COP-26 already postponed, there is significant skepticism. |
| “I suspect the next value clash in politics will be between environmentalism and those who favor economic growth, and I fear the economy will be the winner in this,’’ said Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London. “We will see enormous debt, and I have the feeling that everything will be drowned out by the economic argument.’’ | “I suspect the next value clash in politics will be between environmentalism and those who favor economic growth, and I fear the economy will be the winner in this,’’ said Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London. “We will see enormous debt, and I have the feeling that everything will be drowned out by the economic argument.’’ |
| John Sawers, a political-risk consultant and former head of MI6, the British intelligence service, has a darker view. | John Sawers, a political-risk consultant and former head of MI6, the British intelligence service, has a darker view. |
| “The harsh realist in me says that we’ll emerge more divided, less capable and poorer than before, and that will make governments less inclined to invest in problems that will emerge years and decades down the line,’’ he said. “I would say that government will pay less attention to climate.’’ | “The harsh realist in me says that we’ll emerge more divided, less capable and poorer than before, and that will make governments less inclined to invest in problems that will emerge years and decades down the line,’’ he said. “I would say that government will pay less attention to climate.’’ |
| At the same time, “this is in our hands,” Mr. Sawers said. “The pandemic shows us that global problems have immediate national and local impact, and climate change affects us all.” | At the same time, “this is in our hands,” Mr. Sawers said. “The pandemic shows us that global problems have immediate national and local impact, and climate change affects us all.” |
| The argument made by Mr. Timmermans and national leaders like Ms. Merkel and Mr. Macron is fairly simple: Use the new money not to restore the old world but to help create the new one. | The argument made by Mr. Timmermans and national leaders like Ms. Merkel and Mr. Macron is fairly simple: Use the new money not to restore the old world but to help create the new one. |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | Updated June 12, 2020 |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| “Make sure that the investment we make takes us into the new economy,’’ Mr. Timmermans told the European Parliament. | “Make sure that the investment we make takes us into the new economy,’’ Mr. Timmermans told the European Parliament. |
| To European officials, some answers are obvious: Help the auto industry recover, but tie support to the production of electric cars and better batteries. Help the energy industry move toward renewables and hydrogen. Put people to work installing electric charging stations, rooftop solar panels, better home insulation, smart meters and more efficient windows and boilers. Regulate to ensure energy-efficient new buildings. | To European officials, some answers are obvious: Help the auto industry recover, but tie support to the production of electric cars and better batteries. Help the energy industry move toward renewables and hydrogen. Put people to work installing electric charging stations, rooftop solar panels, better home insulation, smart meters and more efficient windows and boilers. Regulate to ensure energy-efficient new buildings. |
| Some issues, though, are less clear, like the future of mass transportation and large apartment complexes, especially in big cities — let alone the future of airlines. Mr. Macron has tied new funding for Air France-KLM to carbon reduction. | Some issues, though, are less clear, like the future of mass transportation and large apartment complexes, especially in big cities — let alone the future of airlines. Mr. Macron has tied new funding for Air France-KLM to carbon reduction. |
| As a former bloc official, Stefan Lehne, points out, “every day, letters from powerful industrial organizations, from cement to plastic to the car industry, arrive in the Commission, saying that we need relief on standards for emissions, on regulations.” | As a former bloc official, Stefan Lehne, points out, “every day, letters from powerful industrial organizations, from cement to plastic to the car industry, arrive in the Commission, saying that we need relief on standards for emissions, on regulations.” |
| There is “a huge conflict,’’ he said, between “saving the jobs of companies on edge of bankruptcy and investing in new jobs.’’ He added, “There will be a lot of pressure to go back to the status quo ante as much as possible.’’ | There is “a huge conflict,’’ he said, between “saving the jobs of companies on edge of bankruptcy and investing in new jobs.’’ He added, “There will be a lot of pressure to go back to the status quo ante as much as possible.’’ |
| The countries of Central and Eastern Europe are already worried about the pain of a green transition. And poorer countries of the south, with higher debts to begin with and less room for more, fear a new inequality as bigger, richer countries like Germany and France can subsidize their industries far more lavishly. | The countries of Central and Eastern Europe are already worried about the pain of a green transition. And poorer countries of the south, with higher debts to begin with and less room for more, fear a new inequality as bigger, richer countries like Germany and France can subsidize their industries far more lavishly. |
| Wealthier countries reject collective debt to help the more indebted ones. But promoting more spending as green will be more acceptable politically, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. | Wealthier countries reject collective debt to help the more indebted ones. But promoting more spending as green will be more acceptable politically, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. |
| Mujtaba Rahman, chief European analyst for the Eurasia Group, is also more optimistic. | Mujtaba Rahman, chief European analyst for the Eurasia Group, is also more optimistic. |
| “The Green Deal is essentially about money and it’s a great lubricant, even in Central and Eastern Europe,’’ he said. “If a substantial chunk of the budget is for climate spending, that will incentivize them to engage,’’ despite their doubts about energy transition and questions around burden sharing. | “The Green Deal is essentially about money and it’s a great lubricant, even in Central and Eastern Europe,’’ he said. “If a substantial chunk of the budget is for climate spending, that will incentivize them to engage,’’ despite their doubts about energy transition and questions around burden sharing. |
| Diederik Samsom, Mr. Timmermans’ head of cabinet, is working to revise the Green Deal to cope with the new crisis. | Diederik Samsom, Mr. Timmermans’ head of cabinet, is working to revise the Green Deal to cope with the new crisis. |
| “Yes, there is a demand for a green recovery, but also a demand for jobs and growth,’’ he said. “If we can combine that, we can do what we want. If we cannot, forget about it.’’ | “Yes, there is a demand for a green recovery, but also a demand for jobs and growth,’’ he said. “If we can combine that, we can do what we want. If we cannot, forget about it.’’ |