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Global Markets Signal End to Two-Day Rally: Live Updates Deep Recession Is Projected for Europe, as Markets Slip: Live Updates
(about 1 hour later)
The European Union’s economy is set to shrink by 7.4 percent this year, investment is expected to collapse and unemployment rates, debts and deficits will balloon in the brutal aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic, the European Commission said Wednesday.
To put these figures in perspective, the European Union’s economy had been predicted to grow by 1.2 percent this year, and in its worst recession, in 2009 during the financial crisis, its economy shrank by 4.5 percent.
Predicting the breadth of a recession can be a moving target, the commission admitted, and things could end up being much worse.
“The danger of a deeper and more protracted recession is very real,” the head of the commission’s economic unit, Maarten Verwey, said in the forecast’s foreword. The commission issues these forecasts four times a year.
Italy and Spain, the two countries worst hit by the disease, will see their economies shrink by more than 9 percent each. Greece, which had started turning a corner after a decade of economic calamity, will suffer the most of the union’s 27 nations, according to the forecasts, losing 9.7 of its economic output this year.
And unemployment is expected to be rampant, averaging 9 percent across the bloc and reaching 19.9 percent in Greece, the European Commission said.
The bloc’s biggest economy, Germany, will also be hammered, and its economy is projected to shrink by 6.5 percent for the year. France, the bloc’s second-largest economy, is expected to contract by 8.5 percent this year.
The grim set of predictions, although uncertain as the full scale of the impact has yet to unfold, depict a deeply uneven, but still across-the-board disastrous impact on these wealthy economies. The European Union is home to more than 400 million people and a key trading partner with the United States, China and the rest of the world.
A two-day rally in global stocks appeared to be weakening on Wednesday.A two-day rally in global stocks appeared to be weakening on Wednesday.
European markets opened mostly lower after Asia-Pacific markets ended mildly higher.European markets opened mostly lower after Asia-Pacific markets ended mildly higher.
Futures markets were predicting Wall Street would open flat or mildly higher. U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen by investors as a safe place to park money in times of trouble, fell modestly.Futures markets were predicting Wall Street would open flat or mildly higher. U.S. Treasury bonds, typically seen by investors as a safe place to park money in times of trouble, fell modestly.
Global stocks have been buoyed this week by prospects of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic slowly emerging from economically devastating lockdowns. But other clouds have dimmed investor hopes, like the risks of the United States opening too quickly and Washington’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric against Beijing.Global stocks have been buoyed this week by prospects of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus pandemic slowly emerging from economically devastating lockdowns. But other clouds have dimmed investor hopes, like the risks of the United States opening too quickly and Washington’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric against Beijing.
Stocks on Wednesday lost the boost they had received from oil prices, which have rebounded over the past two days. Prices for U.S. crude fell modestly on futures markets.Stocks on Wednesday lost the boost they had received from oil prices, which have rebounded over the past two days. Prices for U.S. crude fell modestly on futures markets.
Stocks in mainland China, which markets had been closed this week for a holiday, rose 0.6 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.4 percent. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.8 percent. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4 percent.Stocks in mainland China, which markets had been closed this week for a holiday, rose 0.6 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 1.4 percent. South Korea’s Kospi gained 1.8 percent. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4 percent.
In London, the FTSE 100 was up 0.2 percent early. But Germany’s DAX was down 0.2 percent, and the CAC 40 in France was down 0.3 percent.In London, the FTSE 100 was up 0.2 percent early. But Germany’s DAX was down 0.2 percent, and the CAC 40 in France was down 0.3 percent.
Even as they have substantially reduced service, the largest U.S. airlines are averaging just 17 passengers on domestic flights and 29 on international flights, according to a copy of congressional testimony from the head of Airlines for America, an industry group.Even as they have substantially reduced service, the largest U.S. airlines are averaging just 17 passengers on domestic flights and 29 on international flights, according to a copy of congressional testimony from the head of Airlines for America, an industry group.
At the same time, airlines are collectively burning through about $10 billion a month as they cut costs and await the return of passengers, Nicholas Calio, the industry group’s chief executive, said in the testimony, prepared for a Senate hearing about aviation on Wednesday.At the same time, airlines are collectively burning through about $10 billion a month as they cut costs and await the return of passengers, Nicholas Calio, the industry group’s chief executive, said in the testimony, prepared for a Senate hearing about aviation on Wednesday.
“While the industry will do everything it can to mitigate and address the multitude of challenges, no factual doubt exists that the U.S. airline industry will emerge from this crisis a mere shadow of what it was just three short months ago,” Mr. Calio said in the prepared remarks.“While the industry will do everything it can to mitigate and address the multitude of challenges, no factual doubt exists that the U.S. airline industry will emerge from this crisis a mere shadow of what it was just three short months ago,” Mr. Calio said in the prepared remarks.
The pandemic has virtually wiped out air travel with traffic volumes down 95 percent and more than 3,000 aircraft grounded. More than 100,000 airline employees are working reduced hours or have accepted pay cuts or early retirement, Mr. Calio said.The pandemic has virtually wiped out air travel with traffic volumes down 95 percent and more than 3,000 aircraft grounded. More than 100,000 airline employees are working reduced hours or have accepted pay cuts or early retirement, Mr. Calio said.
Mr. Calio addressed complaints from some consumers that airlines were strongly encouraging them to take vouchers instead of refunds for canceled flights, saying that if the carriers refunded all canceled tickets at once they might have to seek bankruptcy protection.Mr. Calio addressed complaints from some consumers that airlines were strongly encouraging them to take vouchers instead of refunds for canceled flights, saying that if the carriers refunded all canceled tickets at once they might have to seek bankruptcy protection.
He also thanked Congress for injecting nearly $50 billion in grants and loans into the industry in March and said that the funds would help provide stability “throughout a challenging summer, going into a very uncertain fall season.”He also thanked Congress for injecting nearly $50 billion in grants and loans into the industry in March and said that the funds would help provide stability “throughout a challenging summer, going into a very uncertain fall season.”
After being closed for more than three months, Shanghai Disneyland will greet visitors again on May 11, the first Disney park to reopen after the company closed them amid the coronavirus pandemic.After being closed for more than three months, Shanghai Disneyland will greet visitors again on May 11, the first Disney park to reopen after the company closed them amid the coronavirus pandemic.
In China, where the park is a major attraction, many people saw the move as symbolic. “The reopening means the outbreak in China is truly controlled,” a user wrote on Weibo, the Chinese social media platform.In China, where the park is a major attraction, many people saw the move as symbolic. “The reopening means the outbreak in China is truly controlled,” a user wrote on Weibo, the Chinese social media platform.
All, however, is not back to normal. Visitors will be required to register personal information online and show that their code is green on China’s health-tracking smartphone app, which authorities have used to rank people’s infection risk. Visitors will have their temperatures checked at the gates. They must wear masks. Crowd sizes will be controlled at restaurants, rides and other facilities. Pictures released by Disney show markings on the ground to help park-goers maintain social distancing.All, however, is not back to normal. Visitors will be required to register personal information online and show that their code is green on China’s health-tracking smartphone app, which authorities have used to rank people’s infection risk. Visitors will have their temperatures checked at the gates. They must wear masks. Crowd sizes will be controlled at restaurants, rides and other facilities. Pictures released by Disney show markings on the ground to help park-goers maintain social distancing.
“Finally, there won’t be a line at the Tron Lightcycle Power Run!” an excited Disney fan wrote, referencing a popular ride. Opened in 2016 as the first Disney park in mainland China, it is known for its hours-long lines.“Finally, there won’t be a line at the Tron Lightcycle Power Run!” an excited Disney fan wrote, referencing a popular ride. Opened in 2016 as the first Disney park in mainland China, it is known for its hours-long lines.
Not everything will be open. Some attractions, like theater shows and the park’s colorful nighttime parade, will be canceled to limit guest contact.Not everything will be open. Some attractions, like theater shows and the park’s colorful nighttime parade, will be canceled to limit guest contact.
“To sum up, there will be no pictures together, no theater shows, no wagons and no ‘A Nighttime Spectacular of Magic and Light,’ only the facilities,” wrote one person, adding a facemask emoji.“To sum up, there will be no pictures together, no theater shows, no wagons and no ‘A Nighttime Spectacular of Magic and Light,’ only the facilities,” wrote one person, adding a facemask emoji.
“What’s the fun if we have to wear a mask all the time and can’t take pictures at Disney?” another wrote. “It’s not a good time to go.”“What’s the fun if we have to wear a mask all the time and can’t take pictures at Disney?” another wrote. “It’s not a good time to go.”
Peloton, which last year endured a rocky initial public offering and a widely mocked holiday ad, is emerging as a potential winner of the quarantine economy. Gyms, boutique studios and personal trainers have been sidelined, but home workout systems are thriving.Peloton, which last year endured a rocky initial public offering and a widely mocked holiday ad, is emerging as a potential winner of the quarantine economy. Gyms, boutique studios and personal trainers have been sidelined, but home workout systems are thriving.
Since mid-March, Peloton’s stock has soared 86 percent, valuing the New York company at $10 billion, or twice as much as the gym chain Planet Fitness. Last month, Peloton reported a record: More than 23,000 people had joined one of its live classes.Since mid-March, Peloton’s stock has soared 86 percent, valuing the New York company at $10 billion, or twice as much as the gym chain Planet Fitness. Last month, Peloton reported a record: More than 23,000 people had joined one of its live classes.
When Peloton reports quarterly financial results on Wednesday, Wall Street expects the unprofitable company to post rising sales. Analysts pointed to surges in the number of ratings for fitness classes on Peloton’s system and longer waits for delivery of the bikes, which signal higher-than-expected demand. The results may not reveal the full extent of Peloton’s popularity, because they cover only a few weeks of the lockdown period in March.When Peloton reports quarterly financial results on Wednesday, Wall Street expects the unprofitable company to post rising sales. Analysts pointed to surges in the number of ratings for fitness classes on Peloton’s system and longer waits for delivery of the bikes, which signal higher-than-expected demand. The results may not reveal the full extent of Peloton’s popularity, because they cover only a few weeks of the lockdown period in March.
“Consumer habits are fundamentally changed coming out of this crisis and this pandemic,” said Ron Josey, an analyst at JMP Securities. “A device and service like Peloton comes to the forefront in that.”“Consumer habits are fundamentally changed coming out of this crisis and this pandemic,” said Ron Josey, an analyst at JMP Securities. “A device and service like Peloton comes to the forefront in that.”
Transportation and denser housing have been the two focal points of urban residential development for the last decade, as cities like Seattle and San Francisco try to combat a severe shortage of affordable housing. But some developers worry that the coronavirus pandemic will stop the momentum as social distancing and telecommuting become the norm.Transportation and denser housing have been the two focal points of urban residential development for the last decade, as cities like Seattle and San Francisco try to combat a severe shortage of affordable housing. But some developers worry that the coronavirus pandemic will stop the momentum as social distancing and telecommuting become the norm.
In areas where car commute times continue to climb, and freeways are at capacity, building denser communities along transit lines is seen as a panacea.In areas where car commute times continue to climb, and freeways are at capacity, building denser communities along transit lines is seen as a panacea.
These projects, known as live-leave developments or more formally as transit-oriented developments, can be no-frills projects that focus on housing and getting people in and out fast. Or they can be more centered on amenities, meant to attract not only residents but commercial developers who find the density attractive for restaurants, coffee shops and boutiques.These projects, known as live-leave developments or more formally as transit-oriented developments, can be no-frills projects that focus on housing and getting people in and out fast. Or they can be more centered on amenities, meant to attract not only residents but commercial developers who find the density attractive for restaurants, coffee shops and boutiques.
Most experts say that the demand for transit-oriented development will still exist in some form after the crisis, but that the pandemic will leave a legacy.Most experts say that the demand for transit-oriented development will still exist in some form after the crisis, but that the pandemic will leave a legacy.
Developers are already starting to consider new design plans. Expect more open spaces, broader sidewalks, slimmer roads and promenades in the future.Developers are already starting to consider new design plans. Expect more open spaces, broader sidewalks, slimmer roads and promenades in the future.
Reporting and research was contributed by Carlos Tejada, Kevin Williams, Niraj Chokshi, Mohammed Hadi and Lin Qiqing. Reporting and research was contributed by Matina Stevis-Gridneff, Carlos Tejada, Kevin Williams, Niraj Chokshi, Mohammed Hadi and Lin Qiqing.