'European Slump Is Worst Since World War II, Reports Show' diff viewer (4/5)

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European Slump Is Worst Since World War II, Reports Show	European Slump Is Worst Since World War II, Reports Show
2020-06-05 16:12:19 UTC	2020-06-09 14:00:53 UTC (4 days later)
FRANKFURT — Europe is in the midst of a downturn not seen since the end of World War II, and the worst is yet to come, Europe’s top central banker said Thursday as she painted a scenario that will test how far the continent’s political leaders are willing to go to preserve their fractured union.	FRANKFURT — Europe is in the midst of a downturn not seen since the end of World War II, and the worst is yet to come, Europe’s top central banker said Thursday as she painted a scenario that will test how far the continent’s political leaders are willing to go to preserve their fractured union.
“The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said as she warned that the eurozone economy could shrink by as much as 12 percent this year.	“The euro area is facing an economic contraction of a magnitude and speed that are unprecedented in peacetime,” Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, said as she warned that the eurozone economy could shrink by as much as 12 percent this year.
In a bid to prevent another financial crisis that would generate years of economic woe, the bank’s Governing Council decided Thursday to effectively pay banks to lend money and vowed to do whatever was necessary to counteract the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.	In a bid to prevent another financial crisis that would generate years of economic woe, the bank’s Governing Council decided Thursday to effectively pay banks to lend money and vowed to do whatever was necessary to counteract the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
But many economists and government leaders agree that despite the central bank’s display of monetary firepower, which could pump more than $4 trillion into the economy, it will not be enough to guarantee the survival of the eurozone without help from governments.	But many economists and government leaders agree that despite the central bank’s display of monetary firepower, which could pump more than $4 trillion into the economy, it will not be enough to guarantee the survival of the eurozone without help from governments.
“Europe is experiencing an economic shock without precedent in modern times,” said Paolo Gentiloni, the European commissioner for the economy and a former Italian prime minister. “This is why we need a recovery plan that is sufficiently large, targeted at the hardest-hit economies and sectors, and deployable in the coming months.”	“Europe is experiencing an economic shock without precedent in modern times,” said Paolo Gentiloni, the European commissioner for the economy and a former Italian prime minister. “This is why we need a recovery plan that is sufficiently large, targeted at the hardest-hit economies and sectors, and deployable in the coming months.”
“If not now, when?” he added.	“If not now, when?” he added.
Ms. Lagarde urged European leaders to go beyond the relatively modest sums they have already pledged and “to work towards establishing a recovery fund dedicated to dealing with this unprecedented crisis.”	Ms. Lagarde urged European leaders to go beyond the relatively modest sums they have already pledged and “to work towards establishing a recovery fund dedicated to dealing with this unprecedented crisis.”
Her stark assessment of the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis came after the European Union’s statistics agency estimated that economic output in the eurozone fell 3.8 percent in the first three months of the year, the region’s worst performance since the common currency was introduced in 1999.	Her stark assessment of the economic impact of the coronavirus crisis came after the European Union’s statistics agency estimated that economic output in the eurozone fell 3.8 percent in the first three months of the year, the region’s worst performance since the common currency was introduced in 1999.
The French economy declined by 5.8 percent, Spain’s by 5.2 percent and Italy’s by 4.7 percent, their steepest downturns in the postwar period.	The French economy declined by 5.8 percent, Spain’s by 5.2 percent and Italy’s by 4.7 percent, their steepest downturns in the postwar period.
But divided European Union leaders have struggled to assemble the type of enormous stimulus plan urged by Mr. Gentiloni and others.	But divided European Union leaders have struggled to assemble the type of enormous stimulus plan urged by Mr. Gentiloni and others.
The leaders in Brussels have not been able to agree on what would have been the most ambitious response to the crisis, issuing common debt that would be guaranteed by all countries. They instead have settled on policies that will support unemployed workers, small businesses and health care systems with 540 billion euros, or $590 billion, an underwhelming sum considering the scale of the recession ahead.	The leaders in Brussels have not been able to agree on what would have been the most ambitious response to the crisis, issuing common debt that would be guaranteed by all countries. They instead have settled on policies that will support unemployed workers, small businesses and health care systems with 540 billion euros, or $590 billion, an underwhelming sum considering the scale of the recession ahead.
Italy and Spain, both hard hit by the virus, have been leading a bloc of weaker European countries that are demanding a fund worth at least €1.5 trillion to help the region recover.	Italy and Spain, both hard hit by the virus, have been leading a bloc of weaker European countries that are demanding a fund worth at least €1.5 trillion to help the region recover.
But European Union leaders have fallen back into familiar camps. Germany, the Netherlands and other wealthier northern countries have insisted that the poorer countries in the south finance their own recoveries — ignoring, critics say, the degree to which their economic fates are intertwined.	But European Union leaders have fallen back into familiar camps. Germany, the Netherlands and other wealthier northern countries have insisted that the poorer countries in the south finance their own recoveries — ignoring, critics say, the degree to which their economic fates are intertwined.
Italy is a major supplier of parts for German cars, but its heavy debt load could provoke a financial crisis that would be devastating for the continent. The burden of dealing with the coronavirus is expected to push Italy’s government borrowing above 150 percent of gross domestic product, a perilously high level. If investors lose faith in Italy’s ability to service its debt and dump Italian bonds, German banks will be among those hit hard.	Italy is a major supplier of parts for German cars, but its heavy debt load could provoke a financial crisis that would be devastating for the continent. The burden of dealing with the coronavirus is expected to push Italy’s government borrowing above 150 percent of gross domestic product, a perilously high level. If investors lose faith in Italy’s ability to service its debt and dump Italian bonds, German banks will be among those hit hard.
As was the case during the last eurozone crisis, which ended only five years ago, the central bank would be left to pick up the pieces as best it could.	As was the case during the last eurozone crisis, which ended only five years ago, the central bank would be left to pick up the pieces as best it could.
“If, as we expect, the countries do not come to an agreement in the foreseeable future,” Jörg Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank, said in a note to clients, “pressure will quickly mount again on the bond markets, which should prompt the E.C.B. to step in.”	“If, as we expect, the countries do not come to an agreement in the foreseeable future,” Jörg Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank, said in a note to clients, “pressure will quickly mount again on the bond markets, which should prompt the E.C.B. to step in.”
The central bank did not change any of its official interest rates Thursday, but in effect it lowered its main lending rate below zero.	The central bank did not change any of its official interest rates Thursday, but in effect it lowered its main lending rate below zero.
Under certain conditions, the central bank will allow commercial banks in the eurozone to borrow at a rate of minus 1 percent provided the money is passed on to businesses and consumers. And under a program with fewer strings attached, banks will be able to borrow as much as they want from the central bank at a negative rate of 0.25 percent.	Under certain conditions, the central bank will allow commercial banks in the eurozone to borrow at a rate of minus 1 percent provided the money is passed on to businesses and consumers. And under a program with fewer strings attached, banks will be able to borrow as much as they want from the central bank at a negative rate of 0.25 percent.
The negative interest rates mean that banks could borrow up to €3 trillion, or $3.3 trillion, without having to pay all of the money back.	The negative interest rates mean that banks could borrow up to €3 trillion, or $3.3 trillion, without having to pay all of the money back.
The central bank also said it was prepared to further increase its purchases of government and corporate bonds, a form of money printing intended to keep market interest rates low and make it easier for businesses and consumers to get credit.	The central bank also said it was prepared to further increase its purchases of government and corporate bonds, a form of money printing intended to keep market interest rates low and make it easier for businesses and consumers to get credit.
Updated June 5, 2020	Updated June 5, 2020
	A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.	The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April.
Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.	Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission.
Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.	Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home.
States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.	States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people.
Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.	Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks.
Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.	Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)	If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.)
Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.	Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications.
The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.	The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing.
If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.	If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others.
If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.	If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested.
The central bank had previously earmarked more than €1 trillion, or $1.1 trillion, for asset purchases. But the bank said Thursday that it was prepared to raise that sum “as much as necessary and for as long as needed.”	The central bank had previously earmarked more than €1 trillion, or $1.1 trillion, for asset purchases. But the bank said Thursday that it was prepared to raise that sum “as much as necessary and for as long as needed.”
“We are fully flexible, and we will look at all options,” Ms. Lagarde said.	“We are fully flexible, and we will look at all options,” Ms. Lagarde said.
As bad as the data published Thursday looked, the current quarter could be even worse. Lockdowns did not begin until March, near the end of the three-month period covered by the report. Ms. Lagarde said eurozone output could decline by 15 percent in the second quarter.	As bad as the data published Thursday looked, the current quarter could be even worse. Lockdowns did not begin until March, near the end of the three-month period covered by the report. Ms. Lagarde said eurozone output could decline by 15 percent in the second quarter.
“Sectors of the economy are simply shut down,” she said.	“Sectors of the economy are simply shut down,” she said.
The economy is expected to rebound later in the year, Ms. Lagarde said, but the total decline for 2020 will be at least 5 percent and as much as 12 percent.	The economy is expected to rebound later in the year, Ms. Lagarde said, but the total decline for 2020 will be at least 5 percent and as much as 12 percent.