This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/health/coronavirus-flu-season-deaths.html
The article has changed 22 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 4 | Version 5 |
|---|---|
| The Fear of Coronavirus and Flu Colliding in the Fall | The Fear of Coronavirus and Flu Colliding in the Fall |
| (3 days later) | |
| Could the United States face two epidemics at the same time next fall, flu and the coronavirus? | Could the United States face two epidemics at the same time next fall, flu and the coronavirus? |
| That frightening idea was raised by Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, during an interview on Tuesday with The Washington Post. He suggested that a new surge in coronavirus cases could coincide with the next flu season, causing an even more difficult crisis than the one the nation is facing now. | That frightening idea was raised by Dr. Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, during an interview on Tuesday with The Washington Post. He suggested that a new surge in coronavirus cases could coincide with the next flu season, causing an even more difficult crisis than the one the nation is facing now. |
| “We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said. | “We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said. |
| At Wednesday’s White House briefing, President Trump said that Dr. Redfield had been misquoted and would clarify his remarks. But Dr. Redfield then said that The Post had quoted him correctly. But he tried to dial back the alarm his comments had provoked. | At Wednesday’s White House briefing, President Trump said that Dr. Redfield had been misquoted and would clarify his remarks. But Dr. Redfield then said that The Post had quoted him correctly. But he tried to dial back the alarm his comments had provoked. |
| “I think it’s really important to emphasize what I didn’t say,” Dr. Redfield said at the briefing. “I didn’t say this was going to be worse, I said it was going to be more difficult and potentially complicated.” | “I think it’s really important to emphasize what I didn’t say,” Dr. Redfield said at the briefing. “I didn’t say this was going to be worse, I said it was going to be more difficult and potentially complicated.” |
| He reiterated several times that if the situation became more difficult, that did not mean it became worse. | He reiterated several times that if the situation became more difficult, that did not mean it became worse. |
| He added: “The key to my comments and the reason I really wanted to stress them was to appeal to the American public to embrace the flu vaccine with confidence. One of the greatest tools we have as we go through the fall-winter season is to get the American public to embrace the influenza vaccine and thereby minimize the impact of flu to be the other respiratory disease we confront.” | He added: “The key to my comments and the reason I really wanted to stress them was to appeal to the American public to embrace the flu vaccine with confidence. One of the greatest tools we have as we go through the fall-winter season is to get the American public to embrace the influenza vaccine and thereby minimize the impact of flu to be the other respiratory disease we confront.” |
| Mr. Trump said, “We may not even have corona coming back.” He continued: “If it comes back, it won’t be coming back in the form that it was, it will be coming back in smaller doses that we can contain. What the doctor was saying, and I spoke to him at great length, he was saying if it should come back, you have the flu and the embers of corona, but in my opinion from everything I’ve seen, it can never be like anything like we witnessed right now. It’s nothing like — what we’ve just gone through, we will not go through.” | Mr. Trump said, “We may not even have corona coming back.” He continued: “If it comes back, it won’t be coming back in the form that it was, it will be coming back in smaller doses that we can contain. What the doctor was saying, and I spoke to him at great length, he was saying if it should come back, you have the flu and the embers of corona, but in my opinion from everything I’ve seen, it can never be like anything like we witnessed right now. It’s nothing like — what we’ve just gone through, we will not go through.” |
| Epidemiologists and infectious disease experts interviewed before the Wednesday briefing doubted that the virus would go away, and did not rule out the prospect of a worse crisis in the fall if the two diseases strike at the same time. | Epidemiologists and infectious disease experts interviewed before the Wednesday briefing doubted that the virus would go away, and did not rule out the prospect of a worse crisis in the fall if the two diseases strike at the same time. |
| “When flu season comes, there is the possibility that we will be dealing with two respiratory viruses at the same time — flu and Covid,” Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former head of the C.D.C. and the president of Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit focused on disease prevention, said in an email. “This could be a double challenge for our health care systems.” | “When flu season comes, there is the possibility that we will be dealing with two respiratory viruses at the same time — flu and Covid,” Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former head of the C.D.C. and the president of Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit focused on disease prevention, said in an email. “This could be a double challenge for our health care systems.” |
| Even if social distancing and other mitigation measures succeed in “flattening the curve,” once those strictures are loosened, cases could surge again, Dr. Frieden said. | Even if social distancing and other mitigation measures succeed in “flattening the curve,” once those strictures are loosened, cases could surge again, Dr. Frieden said. |
| New flares in Japan and Singapore, where the disease had appeared to be under control, have made it clear that the virus may retreat but does not disappear. | New flares in Japan and Singapore, where the disease had appeared to be under control, have made it clear that the virus may retreat but does not disappear. |
| “The end game with this virus is, it’s going to try to infect as many of us as possible,” Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in an interview. “With the transmission characteristics we’ve seen, this is a virus that’s going to require at least 60 to 70 percent of population to be immune, from being infected or by vaccination, for substantial reduction of transmission.” | “The end game with this virus is, it’s going to try to infect as many of us as possible,” Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said in an interview. “With the transmission characteristics we’ve seen, this is a virus that’s going to require at least 60 to 70 percent of population to be immune, from being infected or by vaccination, for substantial reduction of transmission.” |
| He added, “We have a long ways to go yet.” | He added, “We have a long ways to go yet.” |
| Dr. Frieden’s analysis was similar: “Covid-19 is likely to continue to circulate until there is a vaccine. That means we need to be ready to reimpose distancing if cases threaten to overwhelm health and public health systems.” | Dr. Frieden’s analysis was similar: “Covid-19 is likely to continue to circulate until there is a vaccine. That means we need to be ready to reimpose distancing if cases threaten to overwhelm health and public health systems.” |
| Most experts agree that a vaccine is at least a year or more away, at best. | Most experts agree that a vaccine is at least a year or more away, at best. |
| The C.D.C. did not respond to requests for more information in time for publication. | The C.D.C. did not respond to requests for more information in time for publication. |
| Dr. Osterholm said there was a widely held misconception that if new cases start to diminish, people can go back to work, the downswing will continue, the disease will go away and life will go back to normal. | Dr. Osterholm said there was a widely held misconception that if new cases start to diminish, people can go back to work, the downswing will continue, the disease will go away and life will go back to normal. |
| “We don’t know what it’s going to do,” he said. “Like gravity, it’s going to keep trying to pull us down.” | “We don’t know what it’s going to do,” he said. “Like gravity, it’s going to keep trying to pull us down.” |
| There is no evidence that the warming temperatures of spring and summer will get rid of the disease, a scientific panel told the White House this month, noting that the virus was spreading rapidly in countries with hot weather, including Australia and Iran. Some laboratory studies have found that high temperature and humidity could lower the ability of the virus to survive, but the studies were not conclusive, according to the report, which came from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, independent agencies that advise the government and the public. | There is no evidence that the warming temperatures of spring and summer will get rid of the disease, a scientific panel told the White House this month, noting that the virus was spreading rapidly in countries with hot weather, including Australia and Iran. Some laboratory studies have found that high temperature and humidity could lower the ability of the virus to survive, but the studies were not conclusive, according to the report, which came from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, independent agencies that advise the government and the public. |
| “Generally, there are respiratory viruses, including flu and some common cold coronaviruses, that are seasonal,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview on Tuesday, before Dr. Redfield’s comments were published. “They do much better in winter and seem to taper off in summer. We do not know at all whether that will be a factor with this virus. There are indications it may not be the case.” | “Generally, there are respiratory viruses, including flu and some common cold coronaviruses, that are seasonal,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview on Tuesday, before Dr. Redfield’s comments were published. “They do much better in winter and seem to taper off in summer. We do not know at all whether that will be a factor with this virus. There are indications it may not be the case.” |
| Updated June 12, 2020 | |
| Touching contaminated objects and then infecting ourselves with the germs is not typically how the virus spreads. But it can happen. A number of studies of flu, rhinovirus, coronavirus and other microbes have shown that respiratory illnesses, including the new coronavirus, can spread by touching contaminated surfaces, particularly in places like day care centers, offices and hospitals. But a long chain of events has to happen for the disease to spread that way. The best way to protect yourself from coronavirus — whether it’s surface transmission or close human contact — is still social distancing, washing your hands, not touching your face and wearing masks. | |
| So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. | So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement. |
| A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. | A study by European scientists is the first to document a strong statistical link between genetic variations and Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus. Having Type A blood was linked to a 50 percent increase in the likelihood that a patient would need to get oxygen or to go on a ventilator, according to the new study. |
| The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. | The unemployment rate fell to 13.3 percent in May, the Labor Department said on June 5, an unexpected improvement in the nation’s job market as hiring rebounded faster than economists expected. Economists had forecast the unemployment rate to increase to as much as 20 percent, after it hit 14.7 percent in April, which was the highest since the government began keeping official statistics after World War II. But the unemployment rate dipped instead, with employers adding 2.5 million jobs, after more than 20 million jobs were lost in April. |
| Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. | Mass protests against police brutality that have brought thousands of people onto the streets in cities across America are raising the specter of new coronavirus outbreaks, prompting political leaders, physicians and public health experts to warn that the crowds could cause a surge in cases. While many political leaders affirmed the right of protesters to express themselves, they urged the demonstrators to wear face masks and maintain social distancing, both to protect themselves and to prevent further community spread of the virus. Some infectious disease experts were reassured by the fact that the protests were held outdoors, saying the open air settings could mitigate the risk of transmission. |
| Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. | Exercise researchers and physicians have some blunt advice for those of us aiming to return to regular exercise now: Start slowly and then rev up your workouts, also slowly. American adults tended to be about 12 percent less active after the stay-at-home mandates began in March than they were in January. But there are steps you can take to ease your way back into regular exercise safely. First, “start at no more than 50 percent of the exercise you were doing before Covid,” says Dr. Monica Rho, the chief of musculoskeletal medicine at the Shirley Ryan AbilityLab in Chicago. Thread in some preparatory squats, too, she advises. “When you haven’t been exercising, you lose muscle mass.” Expect some muscle twinges after these preliminary, post-lockdown sessions, especially a day or two later. But sudden or increasing pain during exercise is a clarion call to stop and return home. |
| States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. | States are reopening bit by bit. This means that more public spaces are available for use and more and more businesses are being allowed to open again. The federal government is largely leaving the decision up to states, and some state leaders are leaving the decision up to local authorities. Even if you aren’t being told to stay at home, it’s still a good idea to limit trips outside and your interaction with other people. |
| Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. | Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days. |
| If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) | If air travel is unavoidable, there are some steps you can take to protect yourself. Most important: Wash your hands often, and stop touching your face. If possible, choose a window seat. A study from Emory University found that during flu season, the safest place to sit on a plane is by a window, as people sitting in window seats had less contact with potentially sick people. Disinfect hard surfaces. When you get to your seat and your hands are clean, use disinfecting wipes to clean the hard surfaces at your seat like the head and arm rest, the seatbelt buckle, the remote, screen, seat back pocket and the tray table. If the seat is hard and nonporous or leather or pleather, you can wipe that down, too. (Using wipes on upholstered seats could lead to a wet seat and spreading of germs rather than killing them.) |
| Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. | Taking one’s temperature to look for signs of fever is not as easy as it sounds, as “normal” temperature numbers can vary, but generally, keep an eye out for a temperature of 100.5 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. If you don’t have a thermometer (they can be pricey these days), there are other ways to figure out if you have a fever, or are at risk of Covid-19 complications. |
| The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. | The C.D.C. has recommended that all Americans wear cloth masks if they go out in public. This is a shift in federal guidance reflecting new concerns that the coronavirus is being spread by infected people who have no symptoms. Until now, the C.D.C., like the W.H.O., has advised that ordinary people don’t need to wear masks unless they are sick and coughing. Part of the reason was to preserve medical-grade masks for health care workers who desperately need them at a time when they are in continuously short supply. Masks don’t replace hand washing and social distancing. |
| If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. | If you’ve been exposed to the coronavirus or think you have, and have a fever or symptoms like a cough or difficulty breathing, call a doctor. They should give you advice on whether you should be tested, how to get tested, and how to seek medical treatment without potentially infecting or exposing others. |
| If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. | If you’re sick and you think you’ve been exposed to the new coronavirus, the C.D.C. recommends that you call your healthcare provider and explain your symptoms and fears. They will decide if you need to be tested. Keep in mind that there’s a chance — because of a lack of testing kits or because you’re asymptomatic, for instance — you won’t be able to get tested. |
| He added: “With warm weather, like in Singapore, they’re having outbreaks when it is warm. It is conceivable that on the basis of mitigation alone as we happen coincidentally to get into May, June, July, and it goes down, people may think it’s weather, but it’s the mitigation.” | He added: “With warm weather, like in Singapore, they’re having outbreaks when it is warm. It is conceivable that on the basis of mitigation alone as we happen coincidentally to get into May, June, July, and it goes down, people may think it’s weather, but it’s the mitigation.” |
| Dr. Fauci described the ability of the virus to spread as “exquisite.” Both in the interview and in the briefing on Wednesday, he said that the nation would still be dealing with the coronavirus in the fall. He said he expected a resurgence then. | Dr. Fauci described the ability of the virus to spread as “exquisite.” Both in the interview and in the briefing on Wednesday, he said that the nation would still be dealing with the coronavirus in the fall. He said he expected a resurgence then. |
| “It could be mini or it could be a big blast,” he said in the interview. “We better be prepared with a real clear adequate amount of tests and all the hospital things you need if you get an outbreak.” | “It could be mini or it could be a big blast,” he said in the interview. “We better be prepared with a real clear adequate amount of tests and all the hospital things you need if you get an outbreak.” |
| Dr. Frieden said it was possible that the steps taken to stop transmission of the coronavirus would also limit spread of the flu, but he said it was way too early to predict what the next flu season would be like or to say for sure whether there would be overlapping epidemics. | Dr. Frieden said it was possible that the steps taken to stop transmission of the coronavirus would also limit spread of the flu, but he said it was way too early to predict what the next flu season would be like or to say for sure whether there would be overlapping epidemics. |
| “The only thing predictable about flu, as Dr. Anne Schuchat of C.D.C. taught me, is that it’s unpredictable,” Dr. Frieden said. | “The only thing predictable about flu, as Dr. Anne Schuchat of C.D.C. taught me, is that it’s unpredictable,” Dr. Frieden said. |
| [Like the Science Times page on Facebook. | Sign up for the Science Times newsletter.] | [Like the Science Times page on Facebook. | Sign up for the Science Times newsletter.] |