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U.K. Extends Lockdown 3 Weeks, With No Clear Exit Strategy U.K. Extends Lockdown 3 Weeks, With No Clear Exit Strategy
(8 days later)
LONDON — Britain confirmed on Thursday that it would prolong its lockdown for at least three more weeks as part of efforts to keep smothering the spread of the coronavirus. But the government was far less clear about the steps it is taking that would allow it to relax restrictions later without causing another outbreak.LONDON — Britain confirmed on Thursday that it would prolong its lockdown for at least three more weeks as part of efforts to keep smothering the spread of the coronavirus. But the government was far less clear about the steps it is taking that would allow it to relax restrictions later without causing another outbreak.
The widely expected extension was announced by Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary who has assumed the duties of Prime Minister Boris Johnson while he recuperates from the virus at his country residence, Chequers.The widely expected extension was announced by Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary who has assumed the duties of Prime Minister Boris Johnson while he recuperates from the virus at his country residence, Chequers.
“We’re now at both a delicate and dangerous phase in this pandemic,” Mr. Raab said at a news conference. Lifting the lockdown, he said, would “risk all the progress we’ve made. Now is not the moment to give the coronavirus a second chance.”“We’re now at both a delicate and dangerous phase in this pandemic,” Mr. Raab said at a news conference. Lifting the lockdown, he said, would “risk all the progress we’ve made. Now is not the moment to give the coronavirus a second chance.”
With the extension, the lockdown will last at least until the second week of May.With the extension, the lockdown will last at least until the second week of May.
Relaxing the restrictions would not only raise the risk of new outbreak, Mr. Raab said, it would also damage the economy. The government would likely be forced to impose a second lockdown, he said, which would shatter confidence.Relaxing the restrictions would not only raise the risk of new outbreak, Mr. Raab said, it would also damage the economy. The government would likely be forced to impose a second lockdown, he said, which would shatter confidence.
Mr. Raab set out five prerequisites for easing restrictions. They included a “sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rates,” confidence that hospitals could cope with the flow of patients, more capacity for testing, more protective equipment, and a judgment, made with the advice of government health experts, that there would not be a second wave of infections.Mr. Raab set out five prerequisites for easing restrictions. They included a “sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rates,” confidence that hospitals could cope with the flow of patients, more capacity for testing, more protective equipment, and a judgment, made with the advice of government health experts, that there would not be a second wave of infections.
With 861 new deaths announced on Thursday — 100 more than the day before — along with complaints about a lack of masks and gloves, and a major shortfall in testing, Britain appears far from meeting three of those prerequisites. Only the hospitals, with a small decline in the number of coronavirus patients and a growing number of beds, are a bright spot.With 861 new deaths announced on Thursday — 100 more than the day before — along with complaints about a lack of masks and gloves, and a major shortfall in testing, Britain appears far from meeting three of those prerequisites. Only the hospitals, with a small decline in the number of coronavirus patients and a growing number of beds, are a bright spot.
Mr. Raab also offered no details about how Britain might exit from the lockdown when those preconditions are met, unlike Germany, Austria and other European countries, where officials have talked about plans for reopening schools and some shops. The government has resisted talking about an exit strategy, arguing that doing so might confuse the public and encourage Britons to reduce compliance with social distancing measures.Mr. Raab also offered no details about how Britain might exit from the lockdown when those preconditions are met, unlike Germany, Austria and other European countries, where officials have talked about plans for reopening schools and some shops. The government has resisted talking about an exit strategy, arguing that doing so might confuse the public and encourage Britons to reduce compliance with social distancing measures.
But its silence, at a time when Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany offered her citizens a detailed blueprint, sowed doubts about whether the government has a strategy for the next phase of the crisis, beyond asking people to stay at home, which it has done with considerable success.But its silence, at a time when Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany offered her citizens a detailed blueprint, sowed doubts about whether the government has a strategy for the next phase of the crisis, beyond asking people to stay at home, which it has done with considerable success.
Some analysts blamed a lack of coordination between government departments, a failure they attributed to the absence of Mr. Johnson. During his first months as prime minister, he had established a command-and-control style of government, with him and a small circle of aides in Downing Street at the center.Some analysts blamed a lack of coordination between government departments, a failure they attributed to the absence of Mr. Johnson. During his first months as prime minister, he had established a command-and-control style of government, with him and a small circle of aides in Downing Street at the center.
Mr. Raab, a Conservative politician chosen for the Cabinet mainly for his staunch pro-Brexit views, cannot hope to exercise Mr. Johnson’s authority. He is surrounded by ambitious colleagues like Matt Hancock, the health secretary, and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the Exchequer, whose departments are more deeply involved in the pandemic response than the Foreign Office he oversees.Mr. Raab, a Conservative politician chosen for the Cabinet mainly for his staunch pro-Brexit views, cannot hope to exercise Mr. Johnson’s authority. He is surrounded by ambitious colleagues like Matt Hancock, the health secretary, and Rishi Sunak, the chancellor of the Exchequer, whose departments are more deeply involved in the pandemic response than the Foreign Office he oversees.
Britain’s testing record has come under the harshest scrutiny. The country got off to a slow start and it continues to test only hospitalized patients, doctors and nurses, and more recently, people who work in nursing homes.Britain’s testing record has come under the harshest scrutiny. The country got off to a slow start and it continues to test only hospitalized patients, doctors and nurses, and more recently, people who work in nursing homes.
Mr. Hancock pledged to increase the number of tests to 100,000 a day by the end of the month, but Britain is still testing less than a fifth of that number. The government said it currently had the capacity to conduct 35,000 tests a day, but only 16,000 people showed up to get tested on the last day for which numbers are available. The government attributed the shortfall to the Easter holiday weekend.Mr. Hancock pledged to increase the number of tests to 100,000 a day by the end of the month, but Britain is still testing less than a fifth of that number. The government said it currently had the capacity to conduct 35,000 tests a day, but only 16,000 people showed up to get tested on the last day for which numbers are available. The government attributed the shortfall to the Easter holiday weekend.
“They say they’re going to do more testing, but I don’t see any evidence,” said Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Exeter Medical School. “We didn’t work hard enough to begin with, we didn’t work hard subsequently, and we haven’t worked hard enough during the shutdown.”“They say they’re going to do more testing, but I don’t see any evidence,” said Dr. Bharat Pankhania, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Exeter Medical School. “We didn’t work hard enough to begin with, we didn’t work hard subsequently, and we haven’t worked hard enough during the shutdown.”
For Britain to relax the restrictions, he and other experts said, the government would need to organize an aggressive program of testing and contact tracing for the general population. Officials have said they plan to expand the eligibility for testing but have yet to introduce or even commit to such a program.For Britain to relax the restrictions, he and other experts said, the government would need to organize an aggressive program of testing and contact tracing for the general population. Officials have said they plan to expand the eligibility for testing but have yet to introduce or even commit to such a program.
The lack of planning is drawing criticism from some of the government’s most influential outside advisers. Prof. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College who is on the government’s scientific advisory council, said Britain had put more effort into planning for Brexit than for responding to the coronavirus.The lack of planning is drawing criticism from some of the government’s most influential outside advisers. Prof. Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist at Imperial College who is on the government’s scientific advisory council, said Britain had put more effort into planning for Brexit than for responding to the coronavirus.
“Decisions certainly need to be accelerated and real progress made,” he told the BBC. “We need to put in place an infrastructure, a command and control structure, and a novel organization for this.”“Decisions certainly need to be accelerated and real progress made,” he told the BBC. “We need to put in place an infrastructure, a command and control structure, and a novel organization for this.”
Updated August 6, 2020 Updated August 12, 2020
Professor Ferguson predicted that some form of social distancing would have to remain in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine is widely available. He led an Imperial College report that predicted an uncontrolled epidemic could kill between 250,000 and 500,000 people in Britain. That prompted Mr. Johnson to change course in March and impose the lockdown. (The report also played a role in persuading the White House to embrace tighter restrictions.)Professor Ferguson predicted that some form of social distancing would have to remain in place for many months, perhaps until a vaccine is widely available. He led an Imperial College report that predicted an uncontrolled epidemic could kill between 250,000 and 500,000 people in Britain. That prompted Mr. Johnson to change course in March and impose the lockdown. (The report also played a role in persuading the White House to embrace tighter restrictions.)
Britain’s decision to prolong the lockdown came as officials expressed hope that the toll from the virus would begin to diminish.Britain’s decision to prolong the lockdown came as officials expressed hope that the toll from the virus would begin to diminish.
Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the rate of transmission in the country had fallen to below one, though it was likely still above one in some hospitals and nursing homes. When an infected person, on average, transmits the virus to less than one other individual, that is considered a key benchmark for preventing the virus from spreading.Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the rate of transmission in the country had fallen to below one, though it was likely still above one in some hospitals and nursing homes. When an infected person, on average, transmits the virus to less than one other individual, that is considered a key benchmark for preventing the virus from spreading.
Britain passed 100,000 confirmed cases of the virus on Thursday, with a total of 13,729 deaths in hospitals. Several thousand additional deaths in nursing homes and private residences are not reported in the daily figures.Britain passed 100,000 confirmed cases of the virus on Thursday, with a total of 13,729 deaths in hospitals. Several thousand additional deaths in nursing homes and private residences are not reported in the daily figures.
The number of people being treated in hospitals in London and other cities has fallen, which — combined with the construction of several field hospitals — has freed up thousands of beds in the National Health Service.The number of people being treated in hospitals in London and other cities has fallen, which — combined with the construction of several field hospitals — has freed up thousands of beds in the National Health Service.
Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical officer, said he was worried people with other illness were avoiding hospitals because they worried about infection or did not want to burden them. “It is really critical for people to realize,” he said, “if they have other medical emergencies, the N.H.S. is open for business.”Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical officer, said he was worried people with other illness were avoiding hospitals because they worried about infection or did not want to burden them. “It is really critical for people to realize,” he said, “if they have other medical emergencies, the N.H.S. is open for business.”
As he announced the three week extension, Mr. Raab, who was standing at a lectern plastered with the government’s three-sentence mantra — “Stay Home. Protect the N.H.S. Save Lives”— said he understood the frustration of people with the lack of a clear path.As he announced the three week extension, Mr. Raab, who was standing at a lectern plastered with the government’s three-sentence mantra — “Stay Home. Protect the N.H.S. Save Lives”— said he understood the frustration of people with the lack of a clear path.
“We get it,” he said. “We know it is rough going right now.”“We get it,” he said. “We know it is rough going right now.”